Very Interesting theory of Sensex ^^^^^

Please read following inresting theory and projections regarding 19 month cycle of Sensex:

Long Term Technical View
"Secular Bull Run set to continue to 25000 & then to 30000"
*EQUITY RESEARCH:: THE TECHNICAL
PERSPECTIVE* THE TARGETS OF
12000 & 17500 AS PROJECTED IN OUR
JANUARY 2006 REPORT HAVE BEEN
FULLY MET

In January 2006 long term report on the Sensex, it was projected a target of 12000 by July 2006 and 17500 by August 2008.Our target
of 12000 was met in May 2006. In our May 2006 report, we advanced the time-target for our next major target of 17657 to December 2007.
This target too was met in October 2007.

In early January 2008 we expected the Sensex to test the resistance area between 21000 & 21500 and that it could then enter a corrective process. The Sensex has since then made a high of 21206 this month and has also corrected sharply to make a lowof 15332. At the low of 15332, the Sensex has even tested the trendline connecting the panic lows of 4227 (May 2004) & 8799 (June 2006).
Despite the sharp correction, the Sensex is currently trading above the trendline connecting the lows of 2934 (May 2003) & 4227 (May
2004) which is the backbone of the ongoing bull run since May 2003. The Sensex has also managed to recover above the trendline connecting the highs of 12671 (May 2006) & 14325 (January 2007).

A recovery above these key trendline supports, despite violent correction, suggests that the robust bullishness in the Sensex is yet intact.
During the January " May 2004 corrective phase, the Sensex had corrected by32% from the January 2004 peak. It corrected by 31% from its May 2006 peak during the May June 2006 corrective phase. In the recent fall, the Sensex has corrected by 28% from the peak of 21206. Hence the Sensex has corrected significantly enough
for the risk-reward equation to once again turn favorable for long-term investors.

Therefore, the Sensex is likely to have made a significant bottom at this month's low of 15332 and is now poised to resume its long term upmove in the coming months.

RESEARCH: THE TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE
IN THE EVENT OF THESE CRITICAL SUPPORTS REMAINING INTACT, AS EXPECTED, WHAT ARE OUR NEW TARGETS?

TARGET I: 25000, TARGET II: 30000
The May 2006 peak of 12671 was formed near the 423.6% Fibonacci level of the January May 2004 corrective phase. The January 2008 peak of 21206 was formed after moving past the 261.8% Fibonacci level of the May June 2006 corrective phase.

If this sequence is to follow, the next significant resistance for the Sensex is placed between 24837 & 25201. The 161.8% Fibonacci level of the fall from 21206 to 15332 is placed at 24837 while the 423.6% Fibonacci Level of the May-June 2006 corrective phase is placed at 25201.Hence, one must exercise caution when the Sensex nears the 25000 zone since it could be a potential resistance area. The subsequent Retracement would be determined by the manner in which the Sensex approaches the aforesaid resistance zone.

TARGET I: 25000
TARGET II: 30000

Each Intermediate Sensex peak since 2004 has coincided with the key Fibonacci levels of the April 1992 April 1993 corrective phase.
Since October 2007, the Sensex has repeatedly tested the 685.4% Fibonacci level of the aforesaid corrective phase, placed at 19570.

Once the 685.4% Fibonacci level is decisively conquered, the Sensex is expected to target the next key Fibonacci level placed at 30442. Thus, the major long term target for the Sensex is 30442.

WHEN COULD THE SENSEX TEST
30000 LEVELS?

The trendline connecting the highs of 6249 (January 2004) & 12671 (May2006) is acting
as a key hurdle for the Sensex. However, the Sensex can continue to make higher highs even if it does not negotiate past the same since the trendline is an up-sloping one.The said trendline intersects the 1109% Fibonacci level of the April 1992 April 1993 corrective phase in April 2009.The next turn of the 19-Month Time Cycle that the Sensex has been following since the February 2000 peak is in August 2009. Thus, the Sensex could test Major Target of 30442 as early as April 2009 & August 2009, assuming the Sensex continues to sustain above its critical trendlines and the 19 month time-cycle continues to hold relevance.

However, Price Targets are reliable and are expected to be met whereas Time Targets may vary.

Source : vision2015