................................. Mahalaxmi Krupa ...

GOOD PICKS..............

2009-06-05T22:21:00.003+05:30

Indowind Energy Ltd hit the buyer freeze yesterday. The stock was recommended during the market hours to the Paid Groups through an SMS. Indowind Energy Ltd which has face value of Rs.10, is trading very cheap as compared to Suzlon Energy Ltd, though there is a slight difference in the business model of both the companies. In the March, 2009 quarter, the company came out with excellent set of numbers. The total income of the company for Q4Fy09 came out to be Rs.31.91 Cr as against Rs.3.44 Cr in the same period previous year; which included an other income of Rs.2.9 Cr. The Profit Before Depreciation and Tax jumped to Rs.2.14 Cr in Q4FY09, as against Rs.99.9 lakhs in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company almost doubled in Q4FY09 as compared to the same period previous year inspite of higher, interest and depreciation. Indowind Energy Ltd earlier informed BSE that the Company have commissioned its II phase of 9 MW Wind Energy Project on March 28, 2009 at Chitradurga. With this the total capacity of Indowind Power Division is 35.65 MW (including .75 MW commissioned in TN in Mar 09) & Capacity of Asset Management Service Division is 31.26 MW. And the overall capacity under Indowind Energy Ltd as on date is 66.91 MW. THIS IS MASSIVE CONSIDERING THE PRESENT PRICE OF THE SHARES OF THE COMPANY.
Indowind Energy Ltd has decided to establish a subsidiary / joint venture Company at "UAE or at any other place outside India".
Indowind Energy Limited develops wind farms for sale, manages the wind assets, and generates green power for sale to utilities and corporates. It also does turnkey implementation of Wind Power Projects, from concept to commissioning. It undertakes Wind Asset Management Solution for installed assets, including operations, billing, collection of revenue to project customers. It is also a candidate for the much coveted CERs (Carbon Credit) Sales and Trading.
If Suzlon Ltd (Rs.2, Face Value) is trading around Rs.136.8 (Rs.684, considering Rs.10, Face Value), then why should Indowind Energy Ltd with such massive capacity and lot of other projects in pipeline be trading at Rs.45.15!!?? Hence I am expecting Indowind Energy Ltd to be trading around Rs.175--Rs.200 in the coming days.
Ram Informatics Ltd in which Kajol Devagan holds substantial position hit the buyer freeze. Since most of the business of the company comes from domestic market and hence its share price is directly related to the growth of the Indian economy---herein lies the catch.

VLS Finance Ltd hit the 2nd consecutive buyer freeze. The stock is nowhere near the first target and hence some more upper circuits are expected in this counter.
VLS Finance Ltd: Company also has following wholly owned subsidiaries:
VLS Securities Ltd
VLS Asset Management Ltd
VLS Investment Ltd
Now company is exploring the possibilities in real-estate sector-not as a developer but through a SPV that develops commercial real estate in Delhi. When rental incomes stabilizes, company will exit SPV and make hefty profit. Company is planning investment of approx Rs.50 Cr for this purpose. This is one of the greatest triggers when most of the Real Estate Stocks are on fire.
MAIN TRIGGER: Company had invested, in 1995, Rs.7 Cr in Sunair Hotels to acquire 25% equity stake. Sunair is owns/operates a 5 Star Hotel named "METROPOLITAN" in one the most sought after areas of Delhi. Singapore based company was supposed to bring funds in Sunair but withdrew from the project . Thereafter, things took ugly turn with charges of mismanagement and misappropriation of funds. Now, VLS is engaged in court case against Guptas (other promoters of this hotel). If VLS wins the court case, VLS stake in Sunair will go upto 87%.
Market value of this hotel at present is approx Rs.700-800 Cr. It appears that promoters are faily confident of winning the case as they had, few months ago, bought big chunk of VLS shares from open market . Now, promoters have sent a notice to BSE that they plan to buy Rs.5 lakh shares of VLS from open market. Once VLS gets 87% stake in Sunair (post court judgement in favour of VLS), Share price of VLS can zoom to XXXX levels (This portion to the Paid Groups). If company loses the court case, it will still continue to hold 25% stake in Sunair and still share price can go upto Rs.XXXX levels. A low-risk High-reward opportunity.

sumanspeaks

SARDA ENERGY & MAINES LTD. - A VERY GOOD SHORT - MEDIUM TERM INVESTMENT

2009-05-08T12:42:00.004+05:30

Sarda Energy : Annual Results (Crores)

0803-3-(12) 0703-3-(12) 0603-3-(12) 0503-3-(12) 0403-3-(12) Sales
624.82 235.37 241.19 242.27 117.34
Other income
4.96 4.07 1.00 0.51 0.14
Employee Expenses
11.27 4.25 4.05 3.19 1.99
Other Expenses
90.60 33.91 65.37 106.91 53.14
Total interest
12.11 4.94 3.07 2.47 0.34
Gross profit
161.32 26.34 17.83 33.78 15.90
Provisions Made
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Net depreciation
22.14 7.95 6.61 4.27 3.45
Total taxation
17.75 0.00 2.59 11.64 1.13
Extra ordinary item
0.00
-6.29
3.39
0.26
0.00
Net profit / loss
121.43 12.10 12.02 18.13 11.32
Equity capital
34.05 13.08 13.08 13.08 13.08
Agg. Non-Promotor Shares (in Lacs)
105.50 50.90 33.83 33.83 37.93
Agg. Non-Promotor Holding(%)
30.99 38.91 25.86 25.86 29.00
EPS (in Rs.)
35.66 9.25 9.19 13.86 8.65HE

THE TARGET IS 135/- WITHIN 3-4 WEEKS.

Ennore Coke Ltd:

2009-05-06T22:48:00.002+05:30

Ennore Coke Ltd: Ennore Coke Ltd is about to hit the buyer freeze as there are very little stocks for sell in the markets. The company has purchased a number of mines abroad and looking to purchase more in the days ahead to make Ennore Coke Ltd a Rs.5000 Cr company. Ennore Coke, listed on the BSE, is an associate company of Shriram EPC Ltd, part of the Chennai-based Shriram group, which has a 32 per cent stake in the company. It produces coke, used in the conversion of ores into metals, from coking coal that comes from mines. Coke is a key raw material in steel production.
Today, Ennore Coke has more than 410,000 tonnes of capacity under its command, half of which is through an arrangement with a company called Durgapur Projects Ltd. Ennore Coke outsources coke manufacture to Durgapur Projects. In addition, Ennore Coke recently acquired an 80,000 tonne coke plant from Wellman Incandescent, in West Bengal, for a consideration of Rs 30 crore. The rest of the capacity comes from the newly commissioned plant at Haldia that has a 12 MW thermal power plant that produces power from waste heat from the coke plant.
It is worth mentioning that a goup company of Ennore Coke Ltd, Ennore Power Ltd acquired Cuttack-based Wellman Coke India Ltd, last year. The acquisition, which took place in June 2008, added 1 lakh tonne to Ennore Coke’s production capacity. Its capacity will be raised to 5 lakh tonne by September 2009 and it will market the entire amount under Ennore Coke brand, according to my close sources.
Earlier Mr. Ganesh Natarajan, president and CEO said that the company had taken up contract manufacturing of Nilachal Carbo Metallics which gave it 60,000 tonne capacity. More recently, it has also finalised an agreement with M V International which has two units of 36,000 tonnes each located at Jajpur.
The coke business has been good for the company with the steel sector comprising almost 65-70% of sales and is presently looking good. The balance comes from sale of foundry grade coke. The company counts the likes of Usha Martin industries, Adhunik Metaliks and Neo Metaliks, among its clients. Ennore Coke is also pitching for a 90% stake in Australia’s Broughton Coal Mine. The group has also acquired 60% stake in a coking coal property in Arkansas, US. The latter has given it access to good quality coking coal, a key raw material in manufacture of coke.
OVERALL Ennore Coke Ltd IS A VERY GOOD STOCK TO ACQUIRE/ACCUMULATE FOR THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM PLAY. THIS COKE COMPANY IS WAY AHEAD OF ITS COMPETITORS LIKE GUJARAT NRE COKE AND AUSTRAL COKE LTD.
Posted by SumanSpeaks

Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Ltd - A very Good Bet

2009-05-06T22:00:00.001+05:30

Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Ltd moved to Rs.796 before coming down a bit. What is the latest on project which the company undertook earlier for laying of two cross country pipelines from Bharat Petroleum Corporation`s (BPCL) refinery at Chembur in Bombay, Maharashtra to Reliance Industries (RIL) Petrochemicals complex at Patalganga in Maharashtra to transport petroleum feedstock from BPCL for the exclusive use of RIL??!! It is worth noting that the pipelines would be owned, maintained and operated by the company under an agreement entered into with RIL. The pipelines was scheduled to be used for transport of its petroleum feedstock. THE STOCK of Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Ltd, SHOULD BE GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RS.1250 MARK IN THE DAYS TO COME.

Reliance Industrial Infrastrucutre Ltd............

2009-04-16T07:05:00.002+05:30

Reliance Industrial Infrastrucutre Ltd moved up to Rs.844 before cooling down a bit. According to a noted analyst: "Reliance Group is trying to make Reliance Industrial Infrastrucutre Ltd, a full-fledged gas carrier because the Krishna Godavari (KG) Gas basin production has started. The Reliance Group is the promoter and the Ambani family has set up the gas pipeline from Kakinada to Baruch of 1,400 km with a capital outlay of close to Rs 3,500 crore. That pipeline is not owned by Reliance Industries or by listed company but by a closely held company, so the idea was that this company will get merged or this project will be taken over by Reliance Industrial Infrastructure and becomes a full-fledged gas carrier company.
He further added, the present turnover of Reliance Industrial Infrastructure is at about Rs.60-70 crore on which they make a profit of close to Rs.20 crore. Suppose, once they takeover this project their topline can balloon, maybe to about Rs.600-700 crore with bottomline of about Rs.200-300 crore, so that will give a very good jump.
Presently, 45% stake of Reliance Industrial Infrastructure is held by Reliance Industries Limited suppose there is a chance or if one presumes that this pipeline company gets merged with this Reliance Industrial Infrastructure, this company will come to its size having a very good presence. Then in future because the group is planning to lay pipeline across the country maybe from Kakinada to the Central part of the country to the southern part of the country, as well as the city gas distribution project can be taken up by this Reliance Industrial Infrastructure.
So they will be taking a reasonable size of this company, which translates into a market capitalization of close to USD 2-3 billion and those argument or those expectations seems feasible the gas production started from KG basin, this 1,400 km pipeline can get merged into this company. If that happens then this will vastly change the fundamentals or vastly re-rate the Reliance Industrial Infrastructure from hereon.
And if the plant gets moved on or gets advanced on these fronts the share price can even cross four-digits".
He further states, " Reliance Industrial Infrastrucutre Ltd (RIIL) is is a closely held company, the shareholding is not owned by Reliance Industries or any of the listed arms. For sake of argument if it gets merged and they issue the shares the effective shareholding of the Reliance Industrial Infrastructure post merger will be held by the Ambani family, maybe to the extent of 45% by Reliance Industries which is held by them now. But thereafter the additional or the new shares will get issued to the Ambani family in their personal capacity."
What I feel is that at the current market cap, the stock is still looking cheap considering the potential of the company going forward. Moreover, the fact that it is associated with Reliance Industries Ltd, who is holding 45.43% of the shares of the company, adds further value for the shareholders. Also, Reliance Capital Ltd is also holding position in the company. So both the "Ambani Brother" are having holdings in the company, which further adds to the value.
Now if Anil Bhai Ambani, wants to further increase his stake in the company, from the present paltry state to have further say in the company's activies, I cannot imagine to what price the share can shoot to.....May be Rs.5000 or may be more; considering the topline of Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Ltd of about Rs.600-700 crore and bottomline of about Rs.200-300 crore. ...Therefore, remain invested and keep a strict watch on the counter.
sumanspeaks:

Vishal exports overseas Ltd:-The multibegger !!!!

2009-04-05T09:54:00.002+05:30

Vishal exports overseas Ltd :

Cmp:1.00 Rs

Bse code:532618

In A bull market,you will come across several inventive variants of a sob story.Something just like "One my relatives made tons of money in the stock market. He had a friend who worked for a big operator. Every time he bought a stock,it doubled within a month.I was tempted to go along, and the next time he bought a stock,I bought it too. That stock doubled. Then I sold some jewellery,took an advance against my provident fund and put it all into the next stock he recommended. This time, the stock went down.I waited for a year hoping the price would recover.Finally after I'd lost 75 per cent of my capital,I sold.Oh,and my idiot relative too lost a packet!" It's easy to lose big money in a bull market.Prices are inflated, the financials of "hot picks" are often dubious,everybody has sure firekhabar.Above all, many bull market participants tend to be inexperienced and sometimes arrogant; and they tend to get drunk on success. When prices fall, most of them lack the discipline to admit they've made mistakes and exit with dignity. Anyway all said and done,forget it.Very recently one of the most respected panwala in our town,Vanu prasad came rushing to me with his "Sureshot Multibagger tip",It was a long time since we met and bhanu sahab was all smiling with his flamboyant baskets of orbit white teeths."Babua panoa ka dhanda khatma karke ham agaya ab marketwa mey,Apna nonua ne ek tagdi company mari hain aur woh popatwa saf saf kahediya "Vishal Exports" 3rs bhau wala lene ko jo ki "Bilwa" ka 'microsoft'se bhi tez bhagne wala hain kuch dino mey.I got awe struck,nerves got swindled,I took a long breath and bhanu bhaiya added further,"Babua tohre pas isliye ham aya taki tu bhi tohre 20 ke umar ma apne pairo se khara ho sake"Beta ham chalte hain aur "YOU NO PAN CHIBING NO CIGARETE FUKING ONLY BIRIYANI" dekh is tipwa ke sath apna confidence wa bhi agaya...Pitir pitir karke ham angrezi bhi jharne lage...ehehhehehehe,he giggled once more and went away"...I couldnt make much of his versatility though i do agree whole-heartedly that his english accent came superior to many of the MP"S of our country. The next moment i rushed to my laptop with an unexpressable feeling,audacity was all the way as i even planned to sell my lappy for the next microsoft.So ladies&gentleman let me present you the 'considerably under researched hidden gem,Vishal Export overseas".After a bit of surfing i got the "chabi"(key) to the "Kuberdhan",the Director"s report.So let"s move on..what say?It is one of the leading players in the EXIM business in India, in terms of "revenue and profits".The Company is engaged in the business of exports and import of Agriculture products, precious metals, chemicals, etc. The Company also got expertise in domestic and international trading of agro based commodities.Wow,great,stunning i said to myself what a great business model,i mean just consider the company buys "ALU,GOBI" and bang exported to the firangis.It exports precious metals too like?kya hain bhai...mili nehi raha hain..hmmm rehno do baki dekhte hain...minerals bhi gaya tel lene... OOPS...Its into power generation too,Hydel power&Wind power generation,i whispered 'Bhanu bhaiya sahi tha'.So now you are getting a "Microsoft(according to our respected bhanu bhaiya),Tata power and a suzlon...a mix of 3 in vishal exports..can it get better?Choti muh aur bari bat"did u get that my fellow folks? Now a look into the financials and the shareholding pattern.......Oh it rewarded shareholder with a bonus too,now my confidence gets a booster again..why not such a great and dynamic business model is there for u to grab.. Sales and profits...rona agaya..pucho mat bhai...khud hi dekhlo...Mom let me have a hankie please.....The company decided to sell/transfer its 'Wind farm project'...which hardly contributes anything...are ruko yaar,i recollected a scene from the bighit film,"Bunty aur Bably"..agar Taj mahal ko kiraya mey diya ja sakta hain to 'Wind farm project' bechke bhi company "Arbo" kama sakta hain...now its upto u guys to differentiate betwen the film scene and the reality.. The 3 promoters,The Mehta family sold more than half of the stake of themselves in the last several months...Hmm god knows whats in store of mine...I guess i am there now to replicate bhanu bhaiya in his "Purane Pan ka dhanda... Its presently quoting at near 1rs...To opt urself for the "Chaddi pe gaddi offer" u can ride on to the helicopters of the company..Hmm am depressed,just tuned to the song of Atif,"Hum kis gali ja rahe hain apna koi thikana nehi"....

IKF Technologies Ltd:-Future outlook/potential/recent news/buy or sell ikf technlogies?

2009-04-05T09:50:00.001+05:30

IKF Technologies Ltd code: 532414 cmp:2.15

Story:Whenever the markets are on a boil, there has to be some froth. As the frenzy increases, investors are ready to buy almost any story. And if that story comes in the guise of an "undiscovered" winner, whose fundamentals are strong, and valuations weak - then it provides additional fuel to the burning desire of those who do not want to be "left out".And when investors are so gullible as to buy into any half-plausible tale, it brings out the creative best in many companies and their stock market advisors. This is also the season where many "undiscovered" stories routinely take up costly advertising space in this newspaper - hoping to attract attention, usually with the help of some astonishing results or announcements.A few days ago, I spotted results of Hyderabad based IKF Technologies .It never performed in the last 5 years,bottomline went nowhere but topline surmounted to 28crs in 08 from nothing in 04.Now these figures are truly dramatic. Unfortunately, neither the quarterly results nor the company website provides much clarity on where these revenues came from. All they've said in the quarterly advertisement is that they are tapping the immense potential in bio-fuels (meant to replace petrol or diesel) by investing in plantations over several thousands hectares in some countries. Now that is a huge amount of land! But I have no idea what they're planning to plant, nor where the money to do this will come from.Wondering how BPO and bio-fuel fit together got me motivated enough to check out their web site, the BSE and several other sources. And the story only got curiouser.According to the company web site, their main business is in technology solutions. These services are not defined in great detail, but generically described as product development services, IT services, technology consulting, etc. In fact their web site has just four visible pages! Maybe the fact that they were getting nowhere with their software business has nudged them towards the two divergent, but currently "hot" businesses of BPO and bio-fuel?The company was originally set up in February 2000 under the name of IKF Software.Com Ltd, and went public almost immediately. And yes, I almost forgot, shortly after the dotcom frenzy subsided, they changed their name to IKF Technologies. Adding to the noise around the stock is a multitude of recent announcements (they sure seem to have had a lot of board meetings in the last few months!)Check that out folks.From all this, one can gather that there is a lot of action within the company. However, the public announcements and disclosures are completely inadequate in terms of telling investors what is truly going on. I've spent a few hours searching for detailed information, but all that is available are press releases or announcements of grand plans.Ultimately, a real story will have some truth behind it.Offlate there has been lot of noises too of IKF being the next big multibagger.Analyst fraternity,self proclaimed investments gurus are pocketing lakhs of shares of the counter.Promoters increased some stake but still the holding pattern is pegged at a pretty low comfort zone for me.Every serious company provides justifications and backup data, from billing rates to employees to costs to client acquisitions and the like - which help provide credibility.But when grandiose announcements, a sudden spurt in trading volumes and prominent ads in the papers all coincide, and that too in the absence of plausible explanations - then any investor or analyst would be justified in being extremely skeptical. I know I am.
Posted by arun at 7:59 AM

XL TELECOM - A GOOD PICK UP

2009-03-30T07:19:00.001+05:30

XL Telecom & Energy Ltd.
BSE Code: 532788
CMP:Rs.29.35
By Saarthi
XL Telecom & Energy Ltd. (XL) was incorporated as a private limited company in 1985 to manufacture and deal in cable splices, protection equipment and allied accessories used in electronic telephone exchanges and other establishments. In 1990, it converted into a public limited company and gradually emerged as one of the fastest growing telecom equipment manufacturers. In 1994, it ventured into solar energy sector albeit on a small scale and is a pioneer of solar modules having rich experience of 15 years. To cash in on the huge opportunity, it has aggressively moved into the non-conventional energy business especially the solar photovoltaic segment. As a result, the energy segment, which contributed to 55% of total sales last year, now contributes almost 90% of total revenue. Apart from solar energy, the company also has interest in ethanol production. Broadly, the company has divided its revenue model into two segments.
A. Energy Segment: This is sub categorized into two divisions:
==> Solar Photo Voltaic Systems Division: This division is now the core business and the revenue driver for the company. It makes solar photovoltaic modules/panels of various capacities ranging from 5Wp to 280Wp catering to both the domestic and overseas customers’ requirements. Beginning with an initial module manufacturing capacity of 24MW in 2005, it has increased the capacity multifold to 180 MW last year.
Moreover, it is in the midst of setting up a huge greenfield plant at Fab City (SEZ), Hyderabad, at a capex of Rs.360 cr. With this, it will add another 40 MW module manufacturing capacity taking the total to 220 MW. Besides, it has backward integrated and is putting up a solar cell manufacturing facility with a rated capacity of 120 MW. The capex has been fully funded and the plant is expected to begin commercial operation within 2009. Along with this backward integration, the company has also moved up the solar value chain by venturing into solar energy power generation through grid connected solar farms. During October 2008, its 100% subsidiary in Europe, ‘Saptashva Solar Ltd.’, has established the first solar farm in Spain with an installed capacity of 1.60 MW, XL has perhaps become the first and only solar cell manufacturing company in the world to capture the complete solar value chain of solar cell to module to system to solar farm or power generation. It has also signed a power purchase agreement for 25 years with a Spanish utility company, which ensures it stable revenue.
Importantly, Saptashva is looking to establish a series of solar farms across Europe, which may lead this subsidiary to become the largest customer of the holding company in terms of solar panels and EPC services. In fact, XL is very bullish of getting into the EPC segment of solar farms and targets to set up solar farms generating as much as 300 MW over the next three years. Recently, one of its end customer commenced operation at its largest 30 MW solar park using XL’s exported solar panels, which helps build XL’s credentials.
==>Ethanol Division: Earlier, the company had aggressive plans about this division but with the drastic fall in crude oil price and the unfriendly approach of the government, it has decided to go slow. It has an ethanol fuel facility at Nanded in Maharashtra with a production capacity of impressive 1.5 lakh litres per day. The plant has been inspected and cleared technically by oil companies both in terms of capacity evaluation and the quality of the product produced. To meet the raw material requirements for ethanol production, XL is contemplating to establish the distillery unit for which it has already incurred Rs.27 cr. out of total planned capex of Rs.72 cr.
B. Telecom Segment: This segment used to be XL’s main business earlier but given the saturation in the Indian market and better opportunities in energy sector, the company has reduced its focus and efforts on telecom. However, it still continues to manufacture and market the following products depending upon the demand scenario:
==>CDMA Handsets & Fixed Wireless Phones: XL is the first Indian company to set up a manufacturing facility for CDMA mobile handsets, as an independent company. It established an Assembly facility for manufacturing mobile phones in partnership with Kyocera Inc of USA and has a capacity of about 35,00,000 handsets per annum. It is supplying multiple models to all CDMA operators like BSNL, MTNL, Tata Teleservices and Reliance. Similarly, it has established a partnership with Axesstel of USA for Fixed Wireless Phones with BSNL as its main customer.
==>Switch Mode Power System: Under technology transfer from SMPS de Austria, XL manufactures and offers a full range of SPMS required by telecom operators in their exchanges as well as for the BTS stations in the mobile segment.
==>Outside Plant Accessories: XL has been a supplier of jointing kits, optic fibres accessories, fusion splicers etc. for over two decades and enjoys nearly 40% market share in jointing kit business. Its plant at Hyderabad with a capacity of 20,00,000 Heat shrink sleeve & 5,00,000 cable jointing kits was set up in technical collaboration with Corning Inc., USA.
Solar power is fast emerging as the most viable and eco-friendly power generation option with no moving parts, no noise pollution and zero emissions. Solar power systems are used for a variety of residential, commercial and industrial applications generally described as either 'on-grid' or 'off-grid' by nature.
The market for on-grid applications, where solar power is used to supplement electricity purchased from the utility network, represents the largest and fastest growing segment of the market and most of the XL products are used for on-grid applications, XL’s focus remains on emerging grid connected solar solutions as against conventional stand alone solar power systems. Although, the generation and distribution costs of solar power has come down substantially, thanks to technological breakthroughs, solar energy still constitutes only a small fraction of the world's energy output.
It is estimated that Spain, Italy, and France will drive the solar power demand in the near future along with Germany, Japan and USA being the largest markets for solar photovoltaic cells. As per consensus among global research organizations, solar products are slated to register 40% CAGR over the next 10 years.
In order to fund its growth plans, XL raised nearly Rs 59 cr. in December 2006 through an IPO route at Rs.150 per share and approx 175 cr. through the FCCB route and has allotted 52,50,000 warrants at Rs.135 each. With part of the FCCBs and warrants already been converted, its equity share capital currently stands at Rs.18.80 cr. The company has recently reset the FCCB conversion price to Rs.160 per share from Rs.260 originally. Despite this, the holders may not opt for conversion as the CMP is trading at a huge discount. For the year ending 30 June 2008, it recorded a 25% rise in the topline to Rs.654 cr. but net profit doubled to Rs.40 cr. posting an EPS of Rs.21.
Despite very poor performance for Q3FY09, the H1FY09 looks impressive with 40% and 60% growth in topline and bottomline at Rs.359 cr. and 15.80 cr. respectively. It may end FY09 with sales of Rs.700 cr. and PAT of Rs.25 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.13 on its current equity of Rs.18.80 cr. The company’s bottomline is hit by the significant interest cost on the loan it took for expansion. But instead of capitalizing the same, XL is writing it off as a revenue expense. It has capital work-in-progress of nearly Rs.250 cr. against the current gross block of Rs.55 cr.
Thus the day its new plant comes into full production, XL will report a substantial jump in its topline as well as bottomline. Investors are, therefore, recommended to buy XL at current levels as its share price can triple in 24 months. However, investors should note that the company has high debt and receivables to the tune of Rs.378 cr. (including FCCB) and Rs.224 cr. respectively.
SUMANSPEAK

PICK OF WEAK THERMAX LTD.

2009-03-30T07:14:00.001+05:30

Thermax Ltd
BSE Code: 500411, CMP: Rs.157, P/E: Rs.6.84, Face Value: Rs.2, Dividend:400%
EPS: Rs.22.95
52-Week High/Low: Rs.622/Rs.150.5
Resistance zone: Rs.160—Rs.166.
Introduction: Thermax Ltd is a global solution provider in energy and environmental engineering. Itoffers products and services in energy sector (boilers, heaters & coolers, waste heat recovery, captive power production) and industrial environment friendly solutions (water treatment and recycling, waste management and performance chemicals).
Thermax Ltd is a market leader in providing small and medium sized industrial boilers; while its biggest rival BHEL focuses on large utility boilers.
It is well positioned to capture the market share of industrial and smaller utility boilers using its innovative technology. Capacity expansion will enable the company to fulfill the growing demand of boilers.Thermax brings its rich experience gained from customer engagements around the world. Through technology partnerships and strategic alliances, it provides superior value to help industry perform efficiently and profitably. With a dedicated sales & service network spread over South East Asia, Middle East, Africa, Russia, India, UK and the US, Thermax ensures innovative solutions and reliable support for client's business improvement. Strong capex announcement made by its user industries would continue to drive the order book of Thermax Ltd.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 61.98% while the general public holds 38.02 %. Among the general public, Arisaig Partners (Asia) PTE Ltd A/c Arisaig India holds 1.02% while Saif III Mauritius Company Ltd holds 1.74% shares of the company.
Financials: For Q3FY09, the company came out with flat top and bottomlines consider Q-o-Q. This is significant considering the overall economic downturn. The total income of the company for Q3FY09 came out to be Rs.803.83 Cr as against Rs.854 Cr. The net profit of the company for Q3FY09 came outto be Rs.72.3 Cr as against Rs.75.03 Cr in the same period previous year. This is on a very small equity capital of Rs.23.83 Cr. The year to date income of the company was Rs.2, 343 Cr (Rs.2, 311.3 Cr in the same period, last year), while profit after tax for the period stood at Rs.193 Cr (Rs.200.3 Cr in the same period previous year).
On a consolidated basis, year to date, Thermax group’s total income stood at Rs.2, 447.1 Cr (Rs.2, 464.2Cr) and profit after tax was Rs.183.5 Cr (Rs.207.8 Cr).The EPS of the company for Q3FY09 is almost flat at Rs.6.07, as against Rs.6.30 in the same period previous year. Even the operating profit margin is flat at 13.28% in Q3FY09 as against 13.43% in the same period previous year. The net profit margin of the company is also flat at 9.09% as against 8.87%in the same period previous year.
Industry Outlook:Thermax Ltd is power utilities manufacturer and a sophisticated player in the environment friendly solutions. Intense capital and technological requirements makes this sector of the market less fragmented. Total market share by sales of 4 (four) firms (Ecoboard Industries Ltd, Ion Exchange Ltd,Thermax Ltd & Western Paques) of pollution control equipment manufacturing industry is 98.8% in which the Thermax Ltd alone owns the 82.5% of share.
Thermax is second largest Power Equipment manufacturer, renowned supplier of industrial and utilitiesboilers, with a market share of around 21%, just next to the BHEL which stands at 69%.The ambitious target of 78,000 MW for additional power generation capacity taken up as part of the Eleventh Plan is slated to be on the fast track with the government already approving several megapower projects. It is widely expected that the intensive capital investment in mega power generation facilities will drive the demand of power utilities.
Steel, Cement and Petrochemicals are the sectors, which contribute 60% of the total order book forThermax Ltd. Thus, High capital expenditure in these sectors will be the main driving factor. Till some months back, the high interest rates regime have lead to the postponement of capital expenditure,which is going to change in the near future. It is expected that these sectors will be witnessing the increased investment in the near future
Investment Rationale:
(a) Good order book position: The Thermax group has an order book of around Rs.4,103 Cr as ofDecember 31, 2008 which is substantially up considering Q-o-Q. Last year Thermax bagged Rs.820 Crorder from an oil company under expansion in the Western India to build utility segment boilers which are currently only supplied by BHEL. In October, 2008, the company won a Rs.450 Cr order for setting up a captive power plant. The 60 MW power plant will be built and commissioned on a turnkey basis for a green field integrated steel complex in Andhra Pradesh. The plant will use process gases and blended coal as fuel. The Company is currently bidding for multiple projects with an average order size of Rs.500Cr.
b) Increased carry forward order book: Thermax Ltd has good carry forward order book, i.e.unexecuted orders. It is widely expected that a large pile of these orders are sufficient enough to takecare of revenue growth for few quarters incase of unexpected drop in the new orders.
c) Efficient Working Capital Management: The Company has been effective in managing the Debt Equity position at lowest possible over the past few years. This type of structure makes the earnings(EPS) less volatile, to have linear variability with its operating earnings (EBIT). This type of structure is unusual for a capital-intensive company. The main reason for this is the effective working capital management.Company has been able to maintain its cash conversion cycle by effectively increasing its creditor’s velocity in line with the debtor’s velocity. At the same time the company has been able to bring down thedays of inventory. The company’s advances from customers have gone up substantially in line with the increasing size of order book. Advances make the net working capital to be negative. We can expect thetrend to continue and this will allow the company to fund its capital expenditure with the internal accruals.
d) National Action plan on climate change: On 30th June ‘08, Prime minister of India, unveiled climate change action plan which seeks to promote sustainable development through use of clean technologies.The focus of this action plan is on implementation of energy efficiency measures, effective water resource management, and enhancement of eco-system services. Further, the clean environment is themain focus of this century. This in a way augments well for the environmental engineering division ofThermax Ltd.
e) Tie up with Balcke-Dürr GmbH and Babcock & Wilcox: In February, 2008, Thermax Limited and Balcke-Dürr GmbH, Germany signed a Technical Know How Transfer and License Agreement for dry and wet Electrostatic Precipitators (ESPs) — air pollution control equipment for power, industrial and utility segments upto 300 MW. The agreement will help Thermax to gain a rightful share of the air pollution control business emerging from this sector. Thermax Ltd has also signed a license agreement with Babcock & Wilcox (B&W) for utility boilers that grants the former, the right to engineer, manufactureand sell sub-critical B&W Radiant utility boilers in India. This should enable it to gain a strong hold in themarket for power utilities.
(f) New Manufacturing Facility: The Company has decided to set up a new manufacturing facility inIndia, which would manufacturer large boilers having a capacity ranging from 100 Mw to 800 Mw. Thecompany has signed a technical agreement with US--based Babcock & Wilcox Co for making sub--critical boilers in India, as mentioned earlier. The company plans to invest Rs.300 Cr in the Phase I of the project, which would have an annual boiler manufacturing capacity of 1,500 Mw.
(g) Cutting edge technologies: Thermax has sourced cutting-edge technologies for its business operations through alliances with world technology majors, like Babcock & Wilcox USA, Kawasaki Thermal Engineering Company, Japan; Eco Tech, Canada; Honeywell, USA; Bloom Engineering, Germany;Struthers Wells and Ozone Systems, USA. Through technology partnerships and strategic alliances, the company is expected to perform well going forward. With a dedicated sales & service Network spread over South East Asia, Middle East, Africa, Russia, India, UK and the US, Thermax ensures innovative solutions and reliable support for client's business improvement.
(h) Production on China plant to drive growth: Very recently the production at China unit of the company has started which will usher in a new beginning for the company. This plant has cost around $10million with a capacity to manufacture 200 chillers. It expects to reach full capacity utilization in a three-year time frame. China accounts for 50% of the $600 million global market for absorption chillers.In FY09, the company is carrying out a capex of around Rs.3 bn towards setting up a independent utility investment.
Concerns:
• Thermax Ltd may see selling pressure as institutional investors may churn portfolio in favour of companies with less dependence on private sector for orders.
• Most of the company's projects business and large boiler orders are at fixed price. Unless, the company builds cushion or hedges against steel price, the profitability on these orders are at arisk; given the probability of increase in steel prices in next few months.
• Given the prevailing economic conditions coupled with the credit squeeze, many industries are reviewing their capital expenditure plans.
• Since some of Thermax's revenue (packaged boilers and enviro chemicals) come from fast-moving products with very low invoice cycle hence revenue growth could taper off to around 12%-15% inFY09.
Conclusion and Chart-Check: The recommendation of Thermax Ltd is backed by three reasons, its strong financial performance, strong order book and most importantly company’s execution capability.The fact that the government has lifted the ban on coal linkage for Captive power projects, has spurred interest into such power projects. Thermax is aiming for a 10% market share out of the planned capacity in power generation by the private sector. With the significant private sector interest in power generation, Thermax Ltd is expected to generate sizeable revenue from utility boilers in the coming years.
What I feel is that India’s long-term story is intact and capital goods have a larger part to play in that.Hence, it is imperative at this stage to invest in fundamentally strong scrip like Thermax with a long term perspective. The scrip is available near its 52-week low price and most importantly the valuations also looking very attractive. Hence, considering the points mentioned above it is found that the scrip ofThermax Ltd could be purchased with a short term target of Rs.165—Rs.180. The scrip has a strong resistance around Rs.160—Rs.166 range.
On the charts it appears that the scrip has bottomed out in the short term and is poised to move up.The MACD, Stochastic (slow and fast), Williams % R, Bollinger Bands, and RSI are all in buy mode. Also good point is that the stock has not broken down the envelop pattern formed on daily charts. Moreover,it has given a minor breakout at Rs.155 and is looking to cross the stiff resistance zone of Rs.160—Rs.165, provided the market conditions remain buoyant. However, these days, the stock markets arehighly unpredictable and hence please keep a SL of Rs.148, (exit) for any short term trade. The stock atthe CMP of Rs.157 is available at throw-away price, considering the potential of the company. Last yearKotak Securities Ltd came out with a price target of Rs.526.
SOURCE : SUMANSPEAKS

RELIANCE INDUSTRIAL INFRA LTD.

2009-03-29T07:14:00.001+05:30

Reliance Industrial Infrastrucutre
The Company, is mainly engaged in the business of setting up / operating Industrial Infrastructure. The Company is also engaged in related activities involving leasing and providing services connected with computer software and data processing.
The Company has set up a 200-millimetre dia twin pipeline system from the Refinery of Bharat Petroleum Corporation at Mahul, Mumbai, for transporting petroleum products like Naphtha and Kerosene to the Petrochemical Complex of Reliance Industries Limited at Patalganga.
It has also erected and commissioned facilities, such as -(i) Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system and (ii) Cathodic Protection system for the above pipeline system.It has also constructed -(i) Jackwell at River Tapi and an 18-kilometre long 1200-millimetre dia Raw Water Pipeline System in Hazira.(ii) 70000 kilolitre petrochemical product storage cum distribution Terminal at Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust Area in Nhava Sheva, Uran (Raigad District) in Maharashtra.
The Company has acquired and deployed various construction machinery on hire for use at various construction sites all over India.The Company has its operations in the Mumbai and the Rasayani regions of Maharashtra, Surat and Jamnagar belts of Gujarat as also at other places in India.
The Company has a team of able and experienced professionals. It employs 148 persons and provides development opportunities and all round exposure to them.
Posted by SumanSpeaks at 1:33 AM

IT raids on JaiCorp...........

2009-03-06T07:22:00.005+05:30

I-T raids on Anand Jain offices, Jai Corp
Sreejiraj Eluvangal
Is is another case of "Witch Hunt" by the Anil Ambani team against his "Big Brother or his Associates" "??!!
It is to be noted here that if Late Dhirubhai Ambani was a larger-than-life patriarch, Mukesh Ambani is still an enigma. The shares of Jai Corp hit the lower circuit filter at the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) on Thursday to close with a loss of 4.94 percent, on news that the income tax authorities were conducting raids on the premises of its non-executive chairman Anand Jain. The company’s shares, which opened at Rs.79 at the BSE, eventually closed at Rs.74.15 - the lower circuit for the Jai Corp scrip on the BSE - data with the bourse showed.
Mumbai: Income tax officials conducted simultaneous raids on 8 offices of Jai Corp, promoted by Anand Jain, a confidante of Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani, on Thursday.
"We are conducting search operations at Jain's establishments including Jai Corp," a senior income tax official said.
"A team of 80 people is conducting the search operations at eight locations and it includes Jain's residence," the official said.
"We cannot say anything more at this moment. The operations are still on. All I can say for now is that the search operations have to do with some real estate deals," the official added.
An email sent to Jai Corp's investor relations department remained unanswered.Jain shot into limelight in 2007, when Forbes named him among 40 richest Indian billionaires.
He has plans for several special economic zones in the country. The website of Jai Corp says he is chairman of the Navi Mumbai SEZ Pvt Ltd, the Mumbai SEZ Ltd, Reliance Haryana SEZ Ltd and Urban Infrastructure Venture Capital Ltd. The venture capital firm had raised $500 million from international investors for investing in the Indian real estate sector.
This apart, his Urban Infrastructure Opportunities Fund had raised Rs 3,286 crore from some 750 retail and institutional investors, the website said. This fund was scrutinised by the Income Tax Department in September last year.

source : sumaspeaks

GULF OIL CORP. LTD......

2009-02-28T07:12:00.000+05:30

Pick of the week
Gulf Oil Corporation Ltd
BSE Code: 506480 CMP: Rs.27.90
Introduction: Gulf Oil Corporation Ltd is a juxtaposition blend of diverse business areas such as industrial explosives, mining products, lubricants, specialty oils and chemicals, active pharmaceutical ingredients (bulk drugs) and pharmaceutical formulations. Various divisions and subsidiaries are:(a) Industrial Explosives Division: Explosives/Accessories, Metal Cladding, Defense Products and Wind Energy(b) IDL Consultant Division: Mining Service and Construction Service(c) Specialty Chemicals Division: Active Pharma Ingredients and Formulations(d) Lubricants Division: Automotive Lubricants, Industrial Lubricants, and Petroleum Products(e) Subsidiaries: IDL Agro and IDL Buildware.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 45.73% while the general public holds 54.27%. Gulf Oil International Mauritius Inc is the only promoter of the company and which holds 45.73% of the shares of the company.
Financials: In Q3FY09, the total income of the company showed a rise of around 18% to Rs.216.01 Cr as against Rs.196.6 Cr in the same period previous year. However the net profit of the company suffered due to higher cost of raw material and most importantly on account of provisions for exchange fluctuations of Rs.6.03 Cr and higher interest charges. The net loss of the company for the Q3FY09 came out to be Rs.5.6 Cr as against Rs.6.54 Cr in the same period previous year. For the nine months period ended 31st December, 2009, the turnover increased by 26% to Rs.748 Cr and Profits after tax was Rs.1.78 Cr after provisions for exchange fluctuations of Rs.17.29 Cr.
Investment Rationale:1. Gulf Oil Corporation Ltd is a Hinduja Group Company. It has its explosives factory in Hyderabad, spread over 600 acres. Company had planned to set up knowledge city in 100 acres. It is reliably learnt now that the Government has given approval to shift this factory out of Hyderabad. Company has already given huge VRS package to around 4700 employees and now just 250 employees are there at Hyderabad factory. Apart from Knowledge City, company will also be constructing residential and commercial complex.2.The company received necessary approvals from the Karnataka Government for setting up of an IT SEZ on its land situated at Yelahanka, Bangalore on the Bangalore—Hyderabad Highway. The project assumes significance as it is strategically situated 14 Km from the new Bangalore International Airport. This will have a supporting infrastructure for Hospitality, Shopping, and Entertainment in an international ambience.3.The Company is also planning to finalize development plans for its land in Bhiwandi and DelhiThe Board of Directors of the Company had earlier approved a restructuring of the Company’s business in accordance with which, the Specialty Chemicals Division of the Company would be transferred effective from April 01, 2008 to IDL Specialty Chemicals Ltd (formerly IDL Agro Chemicals Ltd), a wholly owned subsidiary. The Scheme of Arrangement for restructuring has also been approved by the Shareholders and Unsecured Creditors.5.The company’s lubricant division came out with the new products in the name of Gulf Cargo Power and Gulf Super Duty. It also entered into new segments like Diesel Generator sets, largely used by telecom sectors, with a new range of lubricants co-branded with Ashok Leyland.6.The company’s explosives division reported a robust growth of 44% Y-o-Y. This robust growth in sales was due to increased sales both in the domestic and export markets. This division received a new contract from Coal India Ltd, for the supply of explosives to their subsidiaries with effect from 1st December, 2008. The new order has a price variation mechanism linked to raw material prices which would help stabilize margins in the subsequent quarters. Exports were strengthened with new orders from South East Asia, Easter Europe and Africa. This division is progressing well on its goal of achieving 20% of turnover of exports.7.The company’s mining division is doing excellently well which included the activities from the newly started Nigahi mine of NCL (a subsidiary of Coal India Ltd) in addition to Dudhichua mine in the same region. The division also started its first Manganese ore mining work of Adhunik Group in the Barbil region after completing the mine development work. The mine infrastructure work at Utkal Alumina Ltd is progressing well after a good start last year. Due to the high technical standards and quality of work, the Division is being offered various contracts in the mining and construction sectors. Currently the order book position of the Division is valued at Rs.500 Cr.8.The company is planning to raise US$ 100 million by way of issue of GDR/ADR/FCCB or otherwise (as was passed by the shareholders last year).
Conclusion: The Company is going to benefit from the fall in the price of major raw materials and this is expected to show up in the following quarters’ results. In the commercial vehicles segment the Division continued to achieve significant growth with higher market penetration of Ashok-Leyland Gulf co-branded lubricants led by India’s first long drain diesel engine oils with extended service period of 36000 Kms.Gulf brand promotion activities were stepped up with sponsorship of two wheeler racing events including National Dirt Track Championship. Economy standi-pack pouches were launched to cater to diesel segments in rural markets and the response has been very encouraging.In future the restructuring of the Specialty Chemical division, will drive its revenue growth. The Specialty Chemicals Division has obtained Certificate of Suitability for a cardiovascular drug, Enalapril Maleate from the European Directorate for the Quality of Medicine and HealthCare. This would give access for the molecule in the European markets. Application has been filed for a Cephalosporin for Certificate of Suitability with EDQM.In 2007, its share price touched Rs.350. It has also paid 75% dividend last year. The shares are trading near its book value of Rs.29 and 52-week low price of Rs.24.80. Hence there is minimum downside from the current price of Rs.27.90.
Chart-Talk: From the charts it is found that the stock is above its major support of Rs.27.5 and is in the highly oversold region. Though RSI and ROC is not indicating a clear trend however, MACD and Bollinger Bands are in super buy mode. However, since this is more or less a momentum counter like PSTL, it is move when the markets start to move up in tandem. Hence buy the scrip as long as it is above Rs.27.5 and don’t average if its falls below that levels unless you get some special positive signals.

IMMEDIATELY SELL NMDC AT PRESENT LEVEL !!!

2009-02-23T08:14:00.003+05:30

IMMEDIATELY SELL NMDC AT PRESENT LEVEL All those who had made loss in this counter or has seen the higher level of 500 but failed to book profit have got golden chance to cower a part of it.Sale out your entire holding at present level , as the stock is going to touch it 52 week low of 120 level and then will make new lo near about Rs 100 . At that time cower your sale ,difference in price per share multiplied by no. of share will be your realized profit.

ICSA INDIA LTD ( BSE COD E: 531524 )

2009-02-23T07:52:00.003+05:30

ICSA India Ltd (BSE Code-->531524)
Buy ICSA India Ltd at the CMP of Rs.90--Rs.92 for a target of Rs.150, in the next 45 days time frame. The company is into making of innovative products suitable for Power Utilities, in the field of Energy Management, Energy Audit, and Control Applications and provides versatile Data Acquisition System using several communication media such as GSM, CDMA, Satellite, Optical Fibre and RF.
Company has allotted 105000 Equity Shares on conversion of 35% of Stock Options granted under ESOP Scheme 2005 and 26,50,000 Equity Shares on conversion of Fully Convertible Warrants. Out of USD 46mn FCCB raised by the company, USD 25mn FCCBs were converted in the last financial year and an amount of USD 21mn are outstanding as on December 31, 2008.
Company has taken up the commissioning of Wind Forms aggregating to 9.6 MW.The company came out with superb set of numbers for the December, 2008 quarter, inspite of the downturn.

source : sumanspeaks

An article on Areva T & D in Dalal Street : ---

2009-02-23T07:48:00.000+05:30

The following write-up appeared in Dalal Street Journal, Bombay:
Areva T&D India Ltd (BSE Code:522275) is currently trading at Rs.189.15 (52-Week High/Low Rs.130/Rs.1959.95). The company is into designs, manufactures and supplies of a complete range of equipment, systems and services for all stages in the transfer of electricity, from the generator to the large end user.
For 9MCY08, the company has recorded a topline growth of 34% on Y-o-Y basis, while its bottomline grew at 29% Y-o-Y basis. The company has registered a significant order intake of Rs.3230 Cr during 9MFY09, which is 113% increase over the orders received during the corresponding period last year.
In Q3CY08, the central utilities and state utilities contributed Rs.122 Cr worth of orders, while remaining Rs.340 Cr worth of orders were contributed by the industry and the infrastructure segment. The company is in the process of expanding the capacities at Baroda, Hosur and Chennai plants which is expected to be commissioned in Q1CY09.
The slowdown, it is expected, will least affect the company's activities with the central and state utilities in the short term. The company expects the activities with the public sector industries to continue. Activities with the private sector industries might get affected. Looking at the financials and growth prospects of the company, we would suggest you to stay invested in the counter.
source : sumanspeaks

2009-02-17T19:15:00.002+05:30

India can retain leadership in KPO sector
Buy Aggressively Areva T & D India Ltd (BSE Code: 522275) at the CMP of Rs.180.30
Use today's dips like today to buy Fundamentally strong stocks.
There are some meaningless selling in the markets today, in the absence of the US cues.
Chennai: Knowledge Processing Outsourcing (KPO), over which India's holds the sway with a potential 12 billion dollar market by 2010, is expected to grow despite global recession and the country could maintain its leadership in the KPO sector with stable government policies.
"India has competitive people costs which is sustainable at least for the next seven to ten years. There is an established ITES (Information Technology Enabled Services) sector with good management, plus a reasonable sized talent-pool of human expertise in many areas. All this coupled with fairly stable government policies could help India in its quest to maintain leadership in the KPO sector by a wide margin," Chandu Nair, President and Director of Scope e-Knowledge Centre, a leading KPO company, said.
According to an earlier estimate of National Association of Software and Service companies (NASSCOM), the apex business association, the KPO sector is expected to be worth USD 17 bn by 2010 of which USD 12 bn would be outsourced to India.
'Despite the recession in the US and UK/Europe, NASSCOM still feels that IT/BPO sector would grow in the FY 2008-09. There has been an impact on certain companies, especially those with clients predominantly in certain sectors – financial services – or high exposure to clients which have gone bankrupt,' he said.
Seeking to differentiate KPO and BPO, Nair said BPO is essentially process or rules based while KPO is more expertise or judgment based.
Asked about the competition, he said India's key competitors in the KPO domain are Russia, China, Ireland, Israel, Philippines among others. The competition for India could vary depending on the nature of work.
"For instance for certain kinds of foreign language oriented services, locations in Eastern Europe or South America are favoured. Russia and Israel have scientific talent pool to provide certain specialist KPO services. The major challenge for them as also for say, the Philippines, Ireland is that the talent pool is much smaller while for China and Russia, non-English speaking population is relatively small."
About the scenario five-ten years hence, he said the KPO sector has the potential to grow faster and bigger and create more jobs.
'There is certainly a challenge in terms of availability of certain skill sets and basic employability of fresh graduates which hits small and medium sized companies,' he said. NASSCOM has embarked on some initiatives with respect to improving the skills and is working closely with the government, he said.
Posted by SumanSpeaks

Asian Eletronics Ltd......

2009-02-17T19:06:00.003+05:30

Asian Electronics Ltd: The Hidden Gem
BSE Code: 503940 , Book Value: Rs.71.17, Face Value: Rs.5, Market Cap: Rs.70.53
Target: Rs.29—Rs.30—Rs.35. Stop Loss: Rs.19.5 (exit)
Asian Electronics Limited (AEL) is India’s leading Energy Services Company (ESCO) manufacturing energy conservation products and energy saving lighting products or it is a leader in the niche energy efficient lighting industry. Asian Electronics Ltd has entered into an arrangement with an alternative energy company, for commercial exploitation of technology indigenously developed by Unique Waste Plastic Management and Research Co Pvt Ltd for conversion of Waste Plastics into Liquid Hydrocarbons (oil and energy). This is a great news for the shareholders, in general.
This economically viable technology, the first of its kind which is getting commercially implemented, has a dual benefit in terms of environment friendly disposal of waste plastic as well as generation of fuel and / or to energy. The company has already started benefiting from the said arrangement by addition of new customers for its energy conservation products customized for the said purpose. The company also expects to derive substantial benefits from this new enterprise in due course.
Earlier, the Board of Directors has also approved a proposal for investment in a company abroad called STS PCB Limited, which will give 49% stake in the Share Capital of the said Joint Venture. This company was established in Ireland in the year 2003 and presently engaged in manufacture of Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) by technocrat promoters. The company expects that the Investments will be mutually beneficial as it will give the Company a ready manufacturing platform in Europe and it will give a reliable and cost effective back up in India to the Joint Venture.
Asian Electronics, has also entered into a JV with the Future Group to capitalize on the retail boom. Some of their clients include Reliance Fresh, Big Bazaar and Maharashtra State Electricity Board.
It has struck an agreement with HPCL on processing refinery bottoms and successfully process the bottoms and convert this into a useful energy. The trial runs have been successful and the company according to my sources is about to start (or has started) commercial productions. This is an extension of its original power story. As far as the revenue stream is concerned, HPCL alone should be having somewhere around 3,000 tonne of bottoms available on a per day basis. It might take at least a year before its entire facility could be used. The company expects to have revenues per liter in the region of about Rs.3-5 or so, as pure processing charges.
The company earlier said that it would start with about 300 tonne per day adding to a bottomline of somewhere around Rs.100-150 Cr of processing income from the HPCL sources. Moreover, the company has made its plants a bit more versatile in terms of engineering modification whereby in addition to the plastic waste, it will be using the refinery waste as the input. The company is poised for impressive growth in the next few quarters.
Chart Check: From the charts it has been found that most of the Parameters are in buy Mode, except Stochastic. Stochastics (both slow and fast on daily charts) are giving mixed signals on the charts. The Candle Stick Pattern indicates an end of a spell of downturn.

However, the stock is near its 52-week low price of Rs.20.90 and has minimum downside from here. Considering the Probability approach, the Expectation of the scrip to rise up should more be than going down further. Hence one should buy this stock for a short term price target of Rs.40/-, in the next 6 months time frame. CMP -->Rs.23.60.

Pick of the week : Hanung Toys & Textiles Ltd

2009-01-29T06:48:00.003+05:30

CMP : Rs.24.5 Book Value: Rs.97.46 52-Week High/Low: Rs.273/Rs.24.25 Face Value: Rs.10 EPS: Rs.30.18 Dividend: 15% P/E: 0.81 Market Cap: Rs.61.71 Cr Industry: Toys and Textiles
Introduction: Hanung Toys and Textile was set up in technical collaboration with a South Korean company. Hanung Toys and Textiles Ltd is the largest manufacturer and exporter of Non-Toxic, child safe stuffed toys in India. The company’s products include bedding, curtains, sheets, throws, cushions, decorative pillows, soft toys, window curtains, floorings, beanbags, etc. The company has Walt Disney’s franchise in India for Disney Soft Toys and Cushions.The company has the EN-71, ASTM and BS-5852 certifications. It has been awarded ISO 9001:2000 for quality management systems to manufacture, supply and export furnishings and stuff toys.
OVERVIEW: Hanung Toys and Textiles Ltd is engaged in the manufacturing of Stuffed Toys /Plush Toys and Home Textiles. Since incorporation in 1990, the company has continued to do well. In the initial formative years, company gained immensely from its technical tie-up/ collaboration with South Korean company.
Hanung Industrial Company Limited, as they helped establish well known Korean manufacturing practices and quality systems. After initial five years of collaboration, it has since been independently operating its manufacturing. Its toys manufacturing unit is established in the Noida Special Economic Zone (NSEZ) wherein the benefits of duty free imports and single window clearance for imports/exports are available.Thus its business units consist of toys manufacturing facility, home furnishing production facility and textile processing facility located in Noida. Roorkee & Bhiwandi. Its new production units in NSEZ & Roorkee enjoy 100% tax holiday for first five years. Products made by the company have found wide acceptability in the domestic market as well as in the competitive overseas markets. Domestically its brands Play-n-Pets and Splash are available with all major retailers.With a well established distribution network spread over towns, the products are distributed/ sold through number of outlets. In the Stuffed Toys /Plush Toys category, the company is the market leader and has the major share of the market. Further on the domestic front company has taken the lead by setting up its retail stores both in Home Textiles as well as Stuffed toys/Plush toys.On International front, it mainly deals with the overseas markets viz. Europe, USA, Latin America and the Middle East and has been able to attract and retain known names. The Company has been serving these markets with both stuff toys and home furnishings and its customers are primarily large importers/ whole sellers that service the respective retailers their country.Internationally, the Company’s products are sold in over 30 countries. Products made by this company are available with the leading, Tier One, top most retailers in the world. Besides, the company is also making products for some of the Finest International Brands. The company’s business in the international market has continued its growth trajectory.Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold a whooping 62.28% while the general public holds 37.72%.
Financials: In the September, 2008 quarter, the company came out with brilliant set of numbers. The total income of the company for Q2FY09 came out to be Rs.166.95 Cr as against Rs.117.2 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q2FY09 came out to be Rs. e Rs.19.44 Cr as against Rs.13.73 Cr in the same period previous year. The EPS of the company for Q3FY09 came out to be Rs.7.72 as against Rs.5.45 in the same period previous year. Both the net profit and operating profits were flat in Q2FY09 when compared Y-o-Y.Investment Rationale:1. The Company operates in two segments viz stuff toys and textiles. The company has the order book size of over Rs.1500 cr executable over 4 years time frame.2. The company has signed long term export order tie-up with leading US buyers, for exporting home furnishing and soft toys. These agreements will provide greater strength and better revenue stream to the company.3. Hanung Toys & Textiles Ltd currently is negotiating with two U.S. Companies for acquisition. The talks are on the advanced stage.4. The Company has signed MOU with a Chinese Company to buy latter's soft toy business in China by acquiring 100% stake in the said Company. The company is reportedly is having a toymanufacturing unit clocking annual sales of around $50-60 mn in China. The transaction would cost around $20 mn to the company. The Chinese acquisition will also bring the advantage of low cost technology, larger infrastructure and new clients to the Company.5. During FY08, the Company has started production in its new home textiles unit at Roorkee. The Roorkee unit has various tax benefits & accordingly higher capacity utilization of this unit will further boost the profitability of the Company in the coming years.6. The company is rapidly increasing its retail network, having opened its first Retail store for soft toys in Delhi on February 14, 20087. The board has approved issue of FCCBs & equity shares, GDR/ADR's, QIP's or any other financial instruments for US $50 mn for part financing capex/acquisition programs of the Company. This may increase the paid up capital of the company by about 25% assuming a conversion price of about Rs.250 per share in case of GDR/ADR's.8. After the recent acquisition of a small number of shares, JM Financial Mutual Fund holds 9.51% of company's share capital.9. The brilliant results in the September, 2008 quarter is due to better capacity utilization,efficiency and aggressive marketing of value 10. Activities relating to exports, initiatives taken to increase exports, developments of new exports markets for products and services, and export plans.
During the FY08 and H1FY09, 15 new customers were added. All these customers have the potential and will be converted into US$ 10 Millions each, or more, in the next two years. Some of these have already been converted into US$5 Million plus accounts. Products made by Hanung Toys and Textiles Ltd are available on the shelves of Bloomingdales. William-Sonoma Group, Macy's, Dillards, BBB, JC Penney, Target Stores, HBC. Rona, Home Depot, Wal-Mart, Anna's Linens, LNT, Tuesday Morning, Ikea, Francodim, Conforama, Homebase, Argos, etc.Key Concerns:1. Threat from China: China is the largest manufacturer of soft toys bat present. But, recent complaints about quality have lead Western companies to look to other countries for outsourcing.Moreover, the recent news that government of India has slapped a ban on import of toys from China after cheap supplies from the neighboring country upset the applecart of the domestic manufacturers augurs well for the company. The ban, notified by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), will remain valid for six months. While the government notification did not cite the reason for the ban, sources said it was concerned over a rise in imports of toys. Most of the varieties, including wheeled toys, dolls, stuffed toys, toyguns, wooden and metal toys, musical instruments, electric trains and puzzles are covered under the ban. The Toys Manufacturers Association of India said it was pleasantly surprised by the decision of the commerce ministry to prohibit shipments of cheap toys from China. “We welcome the decision. It is good for the industry,” association president Raj Kumar said, adding it is in the interest of the country. In the face of global downturn, Indian industry has been clamouring for protection from aggressive Chinese manufacturers.2. Foreign Currency Risk: The Company’s export earnings are around 74% (in FY07) and with rupee trading at historic levels as compared to USD, the company stands to benefit by this unusual INR movement. However, the Company's revenues are largely insulated from currency fluctuation risks because:a) Domestic revenue contributes around 20-25% of total revenue.b) Natural hedge by way of import of raw material for stuffed toys to the extent of 30%of total revenue.c) Exports to IKEA are denominated in Indian rupees.d) According to company sources remaining risk is fully hedged by long- term derivative deals.Thus, the Company is largely insulated from currency fluctuation risk because of its unique revenue model giving it a natural hedge.3. Impending slowdown in the U.S. and, in Europe can affect future demand of the Company’s products.Industry Outlook:The Indian toy market is around Rs.2000 cr, of which the organized stuffed toy market accounts for about Rs.300 cr and is growing at over 25% annually. There are three basic reasons for high growth in the stuffed toy market.Firstly, the disposable income of people has grown very fast in the last three to four years. This coupled with changing income distribution promises future expansion of demand. Hanung with its established brands of toys like Play-N-Pets and Muskan is well poised to take advantage of this trend.Further, gifting of stuff toys seems to be catching up in a big way. Mushrooming of shopping malls and mini markets is abetting these changes in tastes. The company has already tied up with a number of shopping malls in the country for this purpose.There were reports in a section of the media that the US authorities and consumer protection groups found harmful amounts of toxic lead content in Chinese-made toys and this have led to less import of Chinese toys in the recent times and could be one of the principle reasons for the growth of domestic industry.Also, the global toy makers like Toys “R” Us, Chicco and Clementino are shifting focus from China and have increased their sourcing from India while big retailers such as Ikea, Tesco, Metro, among others, have begun to place big orders on Indian Companies.Recommendation:At the current market price of Rs. 24.5, the stock is dirt cheap, considering the future potential of the company. The company is well positioned to capitalize on the growth in the burgeoning toys and textile markets. The company has a capacity to produce 20 mn toys per annum and 8 mn meters of textile furnishings segment.Between Mattel, Funskool and Hanung Toys, it has about 15-18% market share. The company has the domestic brands of Play-N-Pets and Muskan in soft toys and Splash in home furnishings.Hanung toys has more than 100 distributors and access to 3,000 retail stores and multi brand outlets including Kids Kemp, Lifestyle, Land Mark, Archies, Globus, Hyper City, Shoppers Stop, India Bulls, Wellspun, Odyssey, among others. Its overseas clients include IKEA (Sweden), Debenhams (UK), Wal-Mart ASDA (UK), Metro Group (Germany/Italy) and Marko Group (Poland).It has witnessed better margins because of increasing focus in the domestic market and has signed long term export contracts with some leading clients globally. These agreements will provide greater strength and better revenue stream to the company.If the growth prospects, as reflected in various contracts and plans fructify, this company has a potential to be a long run multi-bagger.
Short term set backs due to recession should be treated as opportunities to buy more shares. Therefore one can buy the share at the CMP of Rs.24.5 with a short term price target of Rs.60—Rs.65. Please keep a strict Stop Loss of Rs.21.75 and Rs.17.5 (exit) in case of any short term trade.

Vikas Metal & Power Ltd...............

2009-01-26T07:10:00.003+05:30

Vikash Metal & Power Ltd

BSE Code: 532677 CMP: Rs.8.89 Face Value: Rs.10 EPS: Rs.3.59 Div: 5% Book Value: Rs.24.12 P/E: 2.48 Market Cap: Rs.31.22

Introduction: Vikash Metals, a VKP group company is an insurgence of Impex Ferrotech Ltd. Impex Ferrotech, in its own right was born way back in 90's. The journey began in the year 1995 with Ferro Alloys and from its humble beginning, the company has achieved such heights that in the following quarter of the century, the company crossed turnover of over Rs.200 crores, which no one ever dreamt of.The growing demand in the alloy & metal and infrastructure sector resulting in the Industrial growth was the vision of Group Chairman, Shri Vimal Kumar Patni, coupled with the Government's “Look East Policy” thus providing many more opportunities in West Bengal in particular. Vikash Metal & Power Ltd, the Fully Computerized and Automated Integrated Steel Plant is a part of the esteemed Impex Group.An Impex Group Company, Vikash Metal & Power Ltd.(VMPL) was Incorporated in 1996 & is in the manufacturing of Sponge Iron , MS Billets,TMT Bars & Strips. The group’s product range spans a wide array of Structural Products to Ferro Alloys serving the nation with pride.Vikash Metal & Power Ltd, manufacturing sponge iron in its unit having capacity of 100 tpd x 4 kiln and MS Billets in its induction furnace capacity of 8 MT x 3 along with Concast Plant serve large section of the Structural and Infrastructure industries, with the slogan 'From Structure To infrastructure”, using world's most advanced technology, the TEMPCORE process under license from Centre De Recherches Mettalurgigues (CRM) Belgium. “Vikash” brand TMT bars are supplied to leading construction companies and turnkey projects. Apart from receiving the prestigious ISO 9001-2000 SGS certification, the company has also received accreditation by UKAS Quality Management System, Geneva, Switzerland.Ensuring quality, the group with its Vikash brand TMT Bars has created high demand in the infrastructure sector and turnkey projects believing in Values, Trust, Respect and Fellowship.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 58.95% while the general public holds 41.05%. Among the general holding Corporate Bodies hold 17.46% of the shares of the company.
Financials: For Q2FY09, the company came out with superb set of topline though the bottomline suffered due to higher expenditure, interest and depreciation. The total income of the company came out to be Rs.133.8 Cr as against Rs.60.9 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company for Q2FY09 came out to be Rs.1.69 Cr as against Rs.2.8 Cr in the same period previous year. However, the expenditure is expected come down drastically due to the fall in the price of raw materials.
Investment Rationale:• The Commercial production of Ferro Silico Managenese & Ferro Managanese has started from October 18, 2008.• Vikas Metal and Power Ltd (VMPL) is looking for opportunities to acquire /enter into JV / alliance with any other entity engaged in the same line of business to reap more profits.• VMPL had started commercial production from its Hot Rolling Mill having a capacity of 1,50,000 MTPA since September, 2007 while company has started the commercial production of additional 65000 MTPA Sponge Iron Plant & 85500 MTPA MS Billet Plant in June, 2007.• VMPL has some more expansion plans which includes: (a) Pelletization Plant: 487500 MTPA, (b) MS Billet Plant: 28500 MTPA and (c) Brequetting Plant: 60000 MTPA. Apart from this company is in the final stage of executing its 10 MW Waste Heat Recovery Power Plant.• VMPL’s Waste Heat Recovery based captive power plant has been registered under CMD project with UNFCCC. The captive power plant is based on waste heat recovery module whereby flue gas released by the sponge iron kilns is used to generate steam in the boiler thereby replacing fossil fuel for generating power. It will involve reduction of 55,000 metric tones of CO2 equivalent per annum, which will lead to a substantial revenue inflow by selling CE R credits, which will accrue to the company for a period of 10 years.• VMPL has signed an MOU with Bihar State Electricity Board for execution of 2X250MW thermal project in Begusarai. This Project is requiring an investment of Rs.2500 crore which will be funded through a mix of debt and equity and is likely to be commissioned by 2011. The company has approached the Union coal Ministry for coal blocks & has been allotted 300 acres of land by the Bihar Industrial Area Development Authority at Bagusarai. The company even has future expansion plans for setting 2000MW power plant in phases.
Key Concerns:• Escalating Raw Material Prices: Raw Materials comprise of around 76 % of Company’s sales.High prices of Iron ore & Steel Scraps may put some pressure on company’s margins, but during last year company has been successful to offset this pressure by increasing the Sponge iron prices & shifting its focus on MS ingots. This year the raw material prices are likely to remain low.• Slowdown in the global economy: Steel is a cyclical industry & dependent on growth of many sectors viz. Automobile, Infrastructure & construction. However India is concentrating on infrastructure development & a lot of development is to be seen in the short term as well as in the long run so demand for steel looks intact.
Conclusion: At the current market price of Rs.8.89, the stock is dirt cheap. Considering the pace of growth of the company one can buy the scrip taking time horizon of 12-18 months for at least 60% to 70% returns from the current price. However, from the chartical point of view one should only buy the scrip above Rs.8. 50, below which it could break the bullish pattern.

WIND ENERGY IS NEXT GENERATION - PICK UP

2009-01-25T18:31:00.004+05:30

Mr.Barrack Hussein Obama is lobbying for quick congressional passage of an $825 billion stimulus package to pump up the US economy.

"We would add more than 3,000 miles of electric lines to transport Alternative Energy across the country", Mr.Obama Said.

Keep accumulating Indowind Energy Ltd and Southern Online Bio Technologies Ltd.
Sell Suzlon Ltd as it could become bankrupt in 2009, due to highly leveraged balance sheet, unless some concrete steps are taken by the company concerned.
WASHINGTON-- President Barack Obama painted a bleak economic picture of the country Saturday, hours before he met with his economic team.
"We begin this year and this administration in the midst of an unprecedented crisis that calls for unprecedented action," he said in his weekly radio and Internet address.
"Just this week, we saw more people file for unemployment than at any time in the last 26 years, and experts agree that if nothing is done, the unemployment rate could reach double digits," Obama said.
The president pleaded for urgent action, saying, "If we do not act boldly and swiftly, a bad situation could become dramatically worse."
Obama's remarks came as he is lobbying for quick congressional passage of an $825 billion stimulus package to pump up the economy.
The president revealed more details of his stimulus package, which he said would add more than 3,000 miles of electric lines to transport alternative energy across the country.
Obama also said the plan would save taxpayers $2 billion by making three-quarters of federal buildings more energy efficient and would "save the average working family $350 on their energy bills by weatherizing 2.5 million homes."
The White House also released a report on the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan, which calls for greater investment in Pell Grants for college students, a $2,500 college tax credit for 4 million college students and the tripling of the number of fellowships in science to help spur innovation.
Obama promised full accountability for government spending. After a stimulus bill is passed, a Web site, http://www.recovery.gov/, will show taxpayers how their money is being spent, he said.
In the Republicans' response, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers criticized the Democratic plan.
"The $800 billion plan largely ignores the fact that we cannot keep borrowing and spending our way back to prosperity," said McMorris Rodgers, R-Washington.
"Instead of letting American families keep more of their hard-earned tax dollars, this plan proposes to spend additional money -- billions -- on such programs as new government cars, global warming studies and a billion extra dollars for the U.S. Census."
Balancing the budget and enacting tax cuts "are central to moving our economy forward," she said.
The president is calling for the plan, which he hopes will create up to 4 million jobs over the next two years, to be passed by Congress and at his desk for signing by February 16, which is Presidents Day.
Posted by SumanSpeaks

Is Satyam Computers Services Ltd, a buy at Rs.39.95 ??!!

2009-01-08T22:09:00.003+05:30

To understand this fact, let us consider the following points, a little meticulously .........
Satyam Computer Services Ltd
Scrip Code : 500376

The following Fund Houses sold shares yesterday in the open market due to too much panic created by the "Media Terrorists":

Hence it can be concluded from the above data that Majority of Fund Houses feel that Satyam Computers Ltd will be able to come out of the mess created by its Founder Chairman Mr. B Ramalinga Raju??!!
Moreover, Sukumar Rajah, chief investment officer (CIO) of equity in India at Franklin Templeton Investments, which manages $4 billion of assets in the country, said in an e-mail, “This unfortunate development will be a short-term negative for market sentiment,”. Still, by forcing regulators to improve oversight, the incident “should be a Long Term Positive,” Rajah said.

According to a well known and reputed financial web-site, developing-nation stocks are trading near their cheapest levels in a decade after the global economic slowdown and a slump in commodity prices sent the MSCI Emerging Markets Index down 54 percent in 2008. In comparison, the MSCI World Index dropped 42 percent. Shares in the MSCI emerging-markets index trade at 8.8 times reported earnings, while developed shares fetch 11.5 times profit. Sensex companies trade at 9.5 times earnings.
Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd., Satyam’s largest institutional investor as of September, said its investment outlook for India hasn’t changed. Funds run by Aberdeen own at least 5.12 percent of Satyam, according the Hyderabad-based company’s filings for the quarter ended Sept. 31.
“People will grow a bit more dispassionate, but you can say the same for the U.S. and elsewhere,” said Hugh Young, managing director at Aberdeen’s Asian unit, which manages $37.3 billion. “India has great companies that do the right things. Hopefully this is a one off.” He declined to say how many Satyam shares Aberdeen holds, or whether any were sold recently.
India’s $1.2 trillion economy may grow 7 percent in the year ending March 31, the slowest pace since 2003, according to government forecasts. The economy may expand at close to that rate in the next fiscal year as the global recession cuts exports and domestic demand wanes, Junior Industry Minister Ashwani Kumar said in New Delhi yesterday.
To understand the mammoth-ness of Satyam Computers Services Ltd let us take note of the following facts: Satyam Computer Services Ltd, employs 53,000 people, operates in 65 countries and serves almost 700 companies, including 185 Fortune 500 companies. More than half of its revenue comes from the United States.
The most encouraging news came from http://www.cnn.com/ which writes: "Analysts say Satyam is ripe for a takeover, and the government is expected to submit a formal report on the matter Thursday".
Therefore, can we construe that those highly skilled stock market professionals, who have purchased some shares of Satyam Computers Ltd will have a field day in the next few months??!!
However, the most horrifying part of this event is that that cash balance that was non-existent got certified by one of most reputed auditors in the world map, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. This reputed auditor of Satyam Computers Ltd’s, declined to comment on the scandal, according to an e-mail from the New York- based firm’s public relations adviser, Edelman.

Srinivasa Shipping and Property Development Ltd

2009-01-06T07:54:00.005+05:30

Srinivasa Shipping and Property Development Ltd moved to Rs.28 before cooling down a bit. This is a wonderful company which was recommended by me in a number of occassions. Srinivasa Shipping and Property Development Ltd (SSPDL) is a three city Real Estate play on Bangalore, Hyderabad and Chennai markets, where a property boom is going on.
SSPDL is a property development company primarily developing commercial (IT parks, Shopping Malls, Hotel projects, service apartments etc) and residential properties (gated communities, villas, apartments and serviced plots) in Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Kerala.
The business model is as follows:
(a) The Company purchases land and develops it based on market needs
(b) The Company takes land on development from the landowners and shares the developed property with the landowner in a particular ratio and
(c) The Company takes on third party construction contracts in the building sector.
The projects on hand are:
-Bangalore Retreat - December 2009
-OMR Mixed Development Project, Chennai - September 2010
-OMR Residential Project, Chennai - December 2009
-Hyderabad Retreat, Hyderabad - December 2012
-The Retreat, Kallar Valley, Kerala - Dec 2010
The value of projects under execution exceeds Rs.2250 crore with over 7 Million Sq. ft of Built Up Space aggregating to a Sale Value of Rs.1800 Crores Plus in various stages of execution.
SSPDL has also announced plans to take up the following projects:
-Gundla Pochampally/Kompally, Hyderabad - a 40+ acre residential gated community
-Bangalore-Mysore Highway Project - a 60+ acre residential community
- Montieth Road Property Chennai - Office space.
The Retreat, Hyderabad has an SEZ as an integral part of the project. SSPDL has appointed Surbana, the Singapore based architects for this project and currently planning is underway. The earliest revenues will be recognized from 3rd quarter of 2008 (or in Q3FY09).
At Kallar Valley in Kerala SSPDL has acquired about 325 Acres of pristine Plantation Land with natural forest and waterfalls, springs etc. The site is located in the Hills and is a 2 hour drive from Kochi Airport.
SSPDL intends to put up a 20 acre world class resort with a Hospitality Partner. Besides this it will promote Vacation Homes of super luxury quality by invitation. In addition, the Company has been awarded construction contracts aggregating to Rs.78.20 Crores for the following works from third parties.
(i) Construction contract with NBCC, Hyderabad for construction of 1.5 lakh sq feet office building.
(ii) Construction contract of warehouse for SAIL Ltd at Vizag.
(iii) Construction contract for TCG IT Park, Chennai.
(iv) Construction contract for 50 villas for Ferns-Regalia Realty Ltd, Chennai.
2. SSPDL Infrastructure Developers Pvt Ltd, a SPV held jointly by the Company together with Innovative Realty Opportunity Fund Ltd have entered into a sate agreement with Accor Group of Hotels for hotel space in "The Promenade" Project, at Egattur, OMR, Chennai.
3. SSPDL Ltd and Indiareit Fund Advisors Pvt Ltd through their SPVs have acquired 42 acres in Gundtapochampalty village, Hyderabad to develop a gated residential villa community "SSPDL Northwoods". Total estimated project value is Rs 250 crores.

source : sumanspeaks

Ram Informatics Ltd

2009-01-05T08:28:00.003+05:30

Ram Informatics Ltd (BSE Code--->530951) hit the buyer freeze with good volumes. The stock was recommend on 31st December, 2008. This ulitmately became the New Year Gift to all. Good days are ahead for the company as it is into election software space. Moreover, since it has expertise in the e-governance space and hence it would do well going forward as the centre is expected to give new thrust to e-governance.
RAM INFORMATICS (RAMINFO) is a contemporary technologies software services and products company offering solutions for Government, Banking, Insurance and Retail Business---most important part is that it generates most of its revenues from the domestic market. certified company for its software development and education & training services. The company leads in providing e-Governance solutions to the Government sector, Enterprise Applications integration solutions besides Banking, Insurance and retail-business sectors. As an end-to-end software solution provider, the company identified the need to develop the right technical manpower to meet the ever-changing technology needs of the IT industry. Moreover, RAMInfo, the Education & Training Division of RAM Informatics Limited has a mission " to create future-proof IT professionals through quality training". The courses are designed, developed and delivered in compliance with ISO 9001 standards. Also the course contents are enriched on a continuous basis, at our R&D division incorporating real-time project exercises, problem-solving techniques and personal leadership modules.
This integrated training methodology helped thousands of students to get placed in Fortune 500 companies worldwide successfully. The training business is similar to Everonn Systems Ltd or Educomp Solutions Ltd or may be Aptech Ltd (Rakeskh Jhunjhunwala holds substantial stake in the company and hence buy on declines). The fact that it has Governments of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, etc. as its client, give a steadiness of earnings. One of its most prestigious clients is the mammoth, Andhra Pradesh State Road and Transport Corporation.

posted by sumanspeaks

Megasoft Ltd - A Short Term Pick

2009-01-05T08:23:00.003+05:30

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Megasoft Ltd: Mega Telecom Foray to Propel Growth
Face Value: Rs.10
BSE Code: 532408
CMP: Rs.20.7
Book Value: Rs.68.14
Market Cap: Rs.91.63 Cr
52-Week High /Low: Rs.134 /Rs.17.10
P/E : 4 (Good software /IT companies generally command a P/E > 10)
Introduction: Megasoft is a trans-national Intellectual Property driven, product-based technology company. Established in 1994 in Virginia USA & Listed in Mumbai Stock Exchange. Megasoft, a public listed company operates out of offices spanning Europe, Asia and America.
The company has operations in more than nine countries worldwide including its development centers in India and China. Megasoft is currently focusing on Telecom as thrust area given its strong management and delivery capabilities in these industry domains. Telecom sector at present is witnessing tremendous growth throughout the world including India and China. Strong partnerships with global leaders like HP, Teleglobe and TNZI have given XIUS-bcgi the reach and credibility to build a customer base spanning across Asia, Americas, Europe and the Middle East with over 65 commercial installations to its credit till date.
Description of the Group: Megasoft Limited ("the Company") together with its subsidiary companies (collectively "the Group") are engaged in the business of providing Information Technology services to customers.
Name of the subsidiary companies:
Direct subsidiaries:
(i) Megasoft Consultants Sdn Bhd (Malaysia)
(ii) Megasoft Consultants Pte Ltd (Singapore)
(iii) Megasoft Consultants, Inc. (USA)
(iv) Boston Communications Group, Inc. (USA)
(v) Beam AG (Germany)
Indirect subsidiaries:
(i) Megasoft Consultants Limited (UK)
(ii) Megasoft Consultants GmBH (Germany)
(iii) Megasoft Consultants BV (The Netherlands)
(iv) Cellular Express, Inc. (USA)
(v) Puresight Technologies Ltd (Israel)
(vi) Boston Communications Group de Mexico, S.R.L. (Mexico)
(vii) BCGI Wireless Pvt Lt (India)
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 15.84 % of the shares of the company while the General public holds 84.16 % of the shares of the company. It is interesting to note that Mutual Funds hold 14.93%, Venture Capital Funds hold 8.50% and FIIs hold 13.32 % of the shares of companies, indicating the quality of the company. All these three entities constitute around 36% of the shares of the company. Among the general public there are some interesting data:
(a) Individual shareholders holding nominal share capital up to Rs. 1 lakh is 12.78%
(b) Bodies Corporate hold 9.28
(c) Directors & their Relatives & Friends hold 5.02%
(d) Non Resident Indians hold 2.34 and
(e) Foreign Corporate Bodies hold 4.34% of the shares of the company, leaving very little shares in the hands of common investors. THIS GIVES PREMIUM TO THE SHARES OF THE COMPANY.
Some Very Great Names or who's who of Industry, emerge if we study the share holding pattern, in details:
(a) ICICI Prudential Tax Plan holds 3%
(b) ICICI Prudential Fusion Fund holds 2.01 %
(c) Birla Sun Life Trustee Company Pvt Ltd A/c Birla Sun Life Equity Fund holds 3.92 %
(d) BNP Paribas Arbitrage holds 2.21 %
(e) Morgan Stanley Mauritius Company Ltd holds 1.75 %
(f) Deutsche Securities Mauritius holds 3.96 %
(g) Copthall Mauritius Investment Ltd holds 4.80%
(h) SAIF II Mauritius Company Ltd holds 3.95% and
(i) ICICI Prudential Emerging Star (Stock Targeted at returns) Fund holds 3.54%
Financials: On a standalone basis the total income of the company for Q2FY09, came out to be Rs.32.4 Cr as against Rs.17.23 Cr in the same period previous year. PBDT (Profit Before Tax and Depreciation) of the company came out to be Rs.10.3 Cr as against Rs.5.52 Cr in the same period previous year. Profit before tax is a whopping (ten times) Rs.6.09 Cr as against a mere Rs.66 lakhs in Q2FY08 (same period the previous year). The net profit of the company for Q2FY09, came out to be mind boggling Rs.5.6 Cr as against Rs.1.43 Cr in the same period previous year. Another point which is worth noting is that both the operating and net profit margins in Q2FY09, increased considerably, over the previous year. The cash EPS of the company for Q2FY09, came out to be Rs.2.21 as against Rs.1.42 in the same period previous year.
Investment Rationale:
1. The fact that Megasoft Ltd is currently focusing on Telecom as thrust area given its strong management and delivery capabilities in these industry domains, is a song to the shareholders as telecom sector at present is witnessing tremendous growth throughout the world including India and China.
2. Strong partnerships with global leaders like HP, Teleglobe and TNZI have given XIUS-bcgi the reach and credibility to build a customer base spanning across Asia, Americas, Europe and the Middle East with over 65 commercial installations to its credit till date.
3. The company plans to aggressively market its VOISE solution across the EU, especially to the telecom service providers in Germany, the UK, France, Italy, etc. Megasoft Ltd, also plans to tap the potential being generated in the industry because of the outsourcing requirements.
4. The company is also planning to increase its focus on the life sciences domain, primarily on Electronic Data Capture (EDC) applications (required in clinical research).With an enhanced understanding of customer needs, Megasoft is focusing on tapping the increasing market requirement for EDC applications in the pharmaceutical industry, especially in the EU and the US. Megasoft Ltd. generates approximately 60 per cent of its revenues from its consulting division.The company has plans to increase its geographic presence and provide quality consulting services to its clients.
5. It has earlier amalgamated erstwhile, VisualSoft Technologies Ltd with effect from 1st October, 2006, which is giving great thrust in its revenues.
6. On August 30, 2007 the company completed acquisition of US based "Boston Communications Group, Inc." ("bcgi") by acquiring 100% of the bcgi’s shares through a open tender offer. bcgi has become a wholly owned subsidiary from that date.
7. It is a dividend paying excellent company in the software sector. The company has now moved to a managed services model from the License sale of revenues. By this change in the Revenue model, the company has a substantial visibility of its revenues for the near future.
The fact that the scrip is trading near its 52-week low price of Rs.17.10, gives it limited downside from the CMP of Rs.20.7.
8. Megasoft Ltd. made a strategic investment of US$ 3,000,000 in Keystone Wireless, LLC, USA during June 2007 as 5% stakeholder. Keystone is a mobile telecom service provider based out of the United States. The result of this investment has started to show in the quarterly results.
9. With the quarterly results of some of the well known or who' s who, in the information technology (IT) space, coming in this month, we could see some buoyancy in the shares of IT companies in the days to come. Hence, we could see some great movement in the shares of the company as it is a very well managed company, working across various verticals.
10. The company has a strong intellectual property portfolio and is a forerunner in adopting new technologies for its innovation and co-creation strategies.
It is a multi-national and multi-continent company and hence should trade at high valuations.
11. Megasoft has substantial exposure to foreign exchange related risks because of earnings denominated in foreign currency arising from export of software. Majority of the company's revenues are US dollar (USD) denominated and the continued Depreciation of Rupee (INR) vis-à-vis the USD can further pump up the revenues and margins going forward, through indirect gains. The company hedged its forex exposure through forward contracts. The company also has a natural hedge as most of its expenditure is in the US Dollar. The company has not entered into any derivative transactions during the year.
Concerns: Growth of Megasoft Ltd is dependant on the telecoms industry. Any vagaries in the telecom business environment will influence the performance of the company. The Telecom Industry has a historical practice of extended sales cycle and high debtors' position. This may be detrimental to cash flows of the company.
Conclusion: Megasoft Ltd perceives the market opportunities to be favourably inclined to its current offerings and strategies. With the US markets showing weaker growth and the emphasis on cost reduction globally, Megasoft is rightly positioned as a niche player with a strong brand value in the telecom products segment and a number one player in the ADMS and PLM space. Moreover, the US economy is set to improve going further, triggering a rally in the IT stocks. With the increasing focus on innovative technology solutions and a strong R&D back ground along with product development expertise, Megasoft Ltd is ready for exploiting this unparalleled opportunity to expand and grow in these areas as a strong entity.
If we look at the charts we will find that Bollinger Bands, Stochastic, MACD, and Candle Stick Chart Pattern indicates an immediate rise in the price of the scrip. Also, on last Friday, the scrip rose with high volumes indicating that bulls have started to enter the scrip.
Moreover, from the daily charts it is found that the scrip has broken out of the envelop pattern on the positive side, indicating further upmove in the price of the scrip.
Hence, one can buy the scrip at the CMP of Rs.20.7, for a target of Rs.35--Rs.55 in the short to medium term.
Posted by SumanSpeaks

ANDHRAPETROCHEMICALS -

2008-12-30T07:31:00.002+05:30

Operator"s call:-ANDHRA PETROCHEMICALS

Market outlook for the day: Though the war rhetoric has dimmed over the weekend, the markets seem unlikely to begin the week on a cheery note. The advance tax collections were lower by 22% in the current quarter. The market knows it. This will prevent building of any longs immediately.The Sensex has now fallen below its 50 day and 20 day moving averages and is now on course to take support on the trendline joined by 27th October low of 7697 and 2nd December low of 8467, at 9100. Similarly the Nifty has support at 2750. Breaking of these levels would establish the continuation of the downtrend pattern. Engineering, IT looks bad. Satyam, however, could buck the trend .Operator"s call:-
Scripscan: ANDHRA PETROCHEMICALS Ltd cmp:10 Bse code: 500012 Story:
ANDHRA PETROCHEMICALS Ltd is Promoted by Mullapudi Harischandra Prasad, Good Experienced Business Man in AndhraPradesh; Its Dividend Paying Company With Good NET PROFIT With EPS 5/- for 2008-09. First Quarter Net profit was 7 Crores. Second Quarter NetProfit was 10.3 Crores. Equity 84.5 Crores, Company Projected EPS for 2008-09 is 5.5/- with Net Profit 44 Crores. As per This PE only 2. Company Products is good demand in Foreign countries. For this type of sectors minimum PE is 5 in worst conditions market also. But Now PE only 2. If we take PE 5 It will come 25/-.Company Doing very good; Company Expansion is going on; company¢s existing Oxo-Alcohols Plant of 39,000 tonnes per annum raise its capacity to 73,000 tonnes per annum, This Expansion income is coming start from next Quarter. After Expansion company Projection EPS was 10/- for 2009-10 As per this PE only 1.Risk is very very less at current price.Possitive Points for this stock for Up moving:-1)Mumbai Bulls and Operators are accumulating at current price because stock is available at Face value at 10.75/- Good Running company; Good Promoters and EPS 5/- for this year and EPS 10/- for Next year. PE just 1 and 2.2)Company doing very good with EPS 5/- PE only 2; Available very cheep at 10.75/-3)Next year Expansion Income will affect results EPS 10/- PE only 1.4)Analysts and Brokers are telling 1 Year Target is 100/-5)Group also very good Mullapudi Harischandra Prasad6)Dividend Paying Company7)Promoters Holding is good 43.5%So a great buy.BTW:Its an operator call and no way supports my views.The pathetic style of writing added with horrendous analysis skills just vexes me so much.I just put up the report so that people with a penchant of penny stocks can gain bigtime. Do think a lot and act accordingly.

for Long Term Investment - will proved to be a Multibagger !!!

2008-12-25T09:30:00.003+05:30

ASM Technologies Ltd - as mini-Infosys Technologies Ltd hit another buyer freeze with good volumes. It seems everyone has started to have a look at it, now. The company's CMD was in USA last month for striking some deals. The company came out with good numbers for the September, 2008 quarter even in this downturn. The company will now focus more on the domestic markets. With delivery around 99.53%, it seems the stock will hit some more upper circuits in the days to come. ASM's Enterprise Applications service line has wide exposure to the particular needs of various verticals such as: Manufacturing
Oil & Gas, Telecom, retail, Growth Industries, Independant Software Vendors, Product Engineering Services and most importantly, Defence
ASM Technologies Ltd, has initiated the process of establishing an Oracle AIA (Application Integration Architecture) Center of Excellence focusing on co-development of AIA Products and evangelization of AIA Technology within ASM Technologies Ltd and its customer base. As part of this, ASM Technologies Ltd, shall be signing Master Co-Development Agreement with Oracle USA to take up several independent Development projects in which ASM Technologies Ltd and Oracle will collaborate for the purpose of developing new Oracle Products based on the AIA Framework powered by Oracle Fusion Middleware. ASM Technologies Ltd had earlier signed up with Cincom Systems, leading Global Software provider and one of the most experienced software companies in the World, to partner with Cincom to resell, implement and support Cincom’s Quote-To-Order (QTO) Product in India. Cincom's Quote-to-Order (QTO) software solutions for manufacturers of highly engineered products dramatically streamlines the Quote-to-Order and Order-to-Build process by automating complex, expert-dependent processes including: sales, pricing, quoting, design validation and product configuration thereby helping the manufacturers with increased quoting accuracy, increased customer face time, improvement in sales productivity, reduced engineering time, reduced order cycle and few other significant benefits. Cincom's QTO product consists of knowledge based applications covering product configuration, sales configuration, estimating & bidding, quote management; knowledge based application studio and enterprise integration with existing back end ERPs.
ASM Technologies Ltd also announced earlier that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of Enterprise Software Resources (http://www.sapresources.com/) a US based firm, in an all cash deal. This acquisition is through ASM's wholly owned subsidiary in Singapore, Advanced Synergic Pte Ltd and financed by Indian Bank, Singapore.
An important point which is worth mentioning is that the EPS of the company for Half Year Ended, 30th September, 2008 is a whooping Rs.4.29. Considering that most of the software companies earn major part of their revenues in the Q3 and Q4, we can safely assume that the for the whole year, FY09, the EPS of the company would be around Rs.10. Hence if we give the shares a minimum P/E of 15 and then give a some discounting, the shares should trade around Rs.120, against the current market price of only Rs.31. However, if we consider the fact that, it is working in the niche area (including the lucrative defence space), the shares should command a minimum price of Rs.150.

source : sumanspeaks

Accumute this share for short term to medium term....

2008-12-23T07:31:00.002+05:30

Operator call:-

Scripscan : RPG LIFE SCINCES Ltd

cmp:21Traded in : Nse-bse Story:

Pharma company; Running With Good NET PROFIT With EPS 11/- for 2008-09

As per This PE only 2. If we take PE 5 (minimum of Pharma industry) It will come 55/-.Positive Points for this stock for Up moving:-

1)Mumbai Bulls and Operators are accumulating at current price. Daily above 80% delivery in NSE and BSE.

2)Company doing very good with EPS 11/- PE only 2; very cheep at 21.35/-

3)Equity is very small at 11.5 Cr (Pharma Company)

4)Group also very good R P Goenka Group

5)15% Dividend Paying Company

6)Promoters Holding is good 43.5%.

NIFTY --

2008-12-18T07:17:00.001+05:30

Major support level for Nifty is 2950, below that may test 2790 in next week

Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd...........

2008-12-17T20:23:00.004+05:30

Accumulate on all declines :
BSE Code: 531746 Face Value: Rs.10
CMP: Rs.17.70 Book Value: Rs.152.34
EPS: Rs.17.87 P/E: 0.99
Dividend: 25% Market Cap: Rs.70.26 Cr
Buying Price: The scrip should be bought above Rs.18.5
Company Background: Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd (PESL) was promoted by Mr. Chandra Mohan Reddy. It’s a 25 years old partnership firm converted into a public limited company in the year 1994. It pioneers in construction activities in the twin cities of Hyderabad-Secunderabad. Its Key developments include residential flats, townships, shopping malls, office buildings and group housings.
The company has developed around 6.7 million square feet over the past twenty years across more than 75 projects and a further 10.7 million square feet of land is under various stages of development. Prajay has a significant presence in the hospitality segment also, with three landmark ventures in the city: Prajay's luxury resort, the Celebrity Holiday Retreat and the 30 room Celebrity Boutique Hotel (located 500 metres away from the airport). Prajay has been the leader in identifying new locations that are today of strategic importance, which has given it huge cost advantage.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 16.42% while the general public holds, 83.58%. Among the general public FIIs hold a whooping 58.78% of the shares of the company.

Financials: Though for Q2FY09, the total income was almost flat the net profit of the company suffered due to higher expenditure and higher depreciation, as can be seen below. The fact that the interest cost was more or less flat comparing Q-o-Q was a good sign. Moreover, the tax component was also less in Q2FY09, as compared to the same quarter previous year. However, due to the downturn, the operating margin and net profit margin took a quantum hit. However, this is going to correct in the next few quarters, due to the fall in the price of raw materials, in the last few quarters and also due to seasonal demand.

Key Highlights:
The company earns 95% of its revenue from Real Estate and from Hospitality segment.
In March 2007 the company posted a turnover of over Rs.2,000 million and profits of around Rs.800 million. It achieved Rs.1,000 million turnover in one quarter.
Last year the company signed a joint venture with Sunway Group, Malaysia for development of residential condominiums projects in Hyderabad.
Prajay Engineers' Land bank stands at approximately 850 acres 80% of which is in and around Hyderabad
In the last twenty years of its existence, PESL has delivered 75 projects and developed around 6.7 million square feet.

Investment Rationale:
The increased demand for residential units and commercial, office space for the IT and ITES companies suggest that the spurt will continue for years to come. An estimated inflow of Rs.5,508 billion investments in this sector will usher in development at a remarkable pace.
Government thrust on infrastructure spending has given a tremendous boost to construction sector in terms of market size resulting in higher demand across the sector.
Prajay Engineers Syndicate's base in the twin cities of Hyderabad and Secunderabad offers it a myriad of opportunities in the real estate sector. The rapidly growing IT/ITES industry in Hyderabad has its roots in the proactive role of the state government pitching Hyderabad as the 'Hi-Tec' city of India.
The Government's decision to launch Bio Tech Park and Fab City has further given a boost to technology driven growth in Hyderabad.
The company currently has around 31 projects underway and plans to construct around 37.6 million square feet in the next four to five years. All projects have credit Rating of A+ by FIs.
With its visionary approach and contemporary building practices, cutting edge management discipline, Prajay is at the forefront of imparting dynamism to infrastructure development industry.
The company is foraying into Tier II cities of Andhra Pradesh like Vizag and Vijaywada, by FY10.
The company want to invest around Rs.500-600 Cr in the coming years to develop the hospitality segment; to create 1000 room capacity by 2009 in the 5 star, 4-star and the 3- star business class categories; and to develop 31 projects including residential, commercial, retail and hospitality projects, aggregating to around 37.57 million square feet over the next five years.
PESL’s 100% subsidiary Prajay Holdings, has received a commitment of FDI recently, to the tune of rupees equivalent of US $ 36 million for one of its prime projects at Hyderabad wherein a development of around 40 lac square ft has been planned by the company.
The company is riding high on the real estate and infrastructure boom: it has set a target of reaching Rs.1000 crore turnover by FY10.
Future Focus: Premium Apartments, Ultra-modern Townships, Development of Golf course, Independent premium bungalows, Development of 3 and 5 star hotels, Infrastructure development, Shopping Malls. These are all high volume and high margin activities.

Conclusion:
As the trend of spiraling growth continues, there are miles more to go, and further milestones to achieve. With 31 planned and ongoing projects, which will culminate into construction of around 38 million square feet and the residential segment comprising of about 84 percent of the total area under development, the company is expected to do well in future. The stock at the current market price provides an investment opportunity and one should invest in it taking a call for 12-15 months horizon for at least 50% from the CMP of Rs.17.7.
Chartical Indicators: For the short term, buy the scrip only if it closes above Rs.18.5 on a daily closing basis. The MACD and CCI are in perfect buy mode, while Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, and Williams%R are also in buy mode.
Moreover, in the Candle Stick Chart Pattern, the inverted hammer, formation indicates that a significant decline has taken place in the stock price and the shorts are beginning to cover their positions---a very bullish indicator.
With this Candle Stick Chart Pattern, it is imperative to watch the next day's trading action. If the stock opens strong and remains strong during the day, then a key

Reversal is likely in progress—a perfect time to bag the scrip.

source : sumanspeasksplus........

Sejal Architectural Glass Ltd

2008-12-17T19:51:00.003+05:30

Traded in: Nse-bse Story: Sejal Architectural Glass is into processing of insulating, toughened and laminated glass. The com pany also has a trading division which supports various in-house brands and products of other manufacturers. The products include tiles, sanitary-ware, mirrors, glass, etc. for home and commercial interiors.Going forward, the company expects acceleration in its revenue and profit growth, as it continues to book new orders.

Its float glass facility will be completed by FY09. Its perday capacity at 100% utilisation is 550 tonnes per day. For the first year, capacity utilisation will be around 65% and by FY11, it will be fully operational.Recently, the company ventured into retailing and has opened a 30,000-square feet showroom to sell high-end glass articles used in house interiors.The Indian glass industry has immense potential to grow as the long term growth story in the construction and automotive industries in India remains intact.

The introduction of low-cost cars and the changing focus of real estate developers to semi-urban cities due to high land prices can be major growth drivers.The company has orders worth Rs 30 crore, to be completed within the next three months.During FY10, the company expects to clock revenues of Rs 350 crore and profit of nearly 50crs.

With confirmed orders from Amritsar Airport, Reliance Industries, L&T and Brigade Enterprises among others, the company's growth in the next few quarters seems certain. The stock is currently trading at 5 times its estimated FY09 EPS.

It also would be prudent to note that the company just some months ago came with its IPO at a price of 115 and the issue was highly oversubscribed to the tune of 7 odd times.Its now at a 96 rs discount to its ipo price of 115rs.

With market sentiments improving now the stock may just shoot up a hell lot from present level of 19rs.

A great buy at present levels.

A SOLID ITEM FOR INVESTMENT -- FOR 2YEARS

2008-12-17T07:17:00.002+05:30

EPS: Rs.41
Dividend: 70%
P/E: 6.61 (only)
Market Cap: Rs.122 (only)
Introduction: English Indian Clays Ltd (EICL) was incorporated on 18th November 1963, in technical and financial collaboration with English China Clays Limited, UK (now known as ECC Group plc, UK). The collaboration with ECC ceased in the year 1992. EICL has since been actively engaged in the manufacture and processing of China Clay of different grades for use as a coating agent and filling agent.
The Company has its clay manufacturing units at Veli, Thonnakkal and Kollam located in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala. The company's clay mining and refining operations center around Trivandrum where the processing plant produces several grades of refined Kaolin (China Clay - both Spray Dried and Rotary Dried), Metakaolin and Calcined Kaolin (clays) to cater to the Paper, Paint, Rubber, Plastic, Fiberglass, Cement and Ultramarine industries. The plant is the biggest in South East Asia.
EICL has been successful in maintaining strict quality control and consistent conformity to international standards. The company has been certified to ISO 9002:1994 since 1996 and has now been upgraded to ISO 9001 : 2000. EICL has a well-equipped R&D Center, which is recognized by the Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India.EICL R&D has set up Application Laboratories that focuses on specific industry requirements to develop suitable grade of products and provides application support to customers to achieve best results from its products.
As pigment and extender, China Clay it is used extensively in the paper and paints industry. As filler, it is used in the manufacture of plastics, detergents, rubber goods and paper; as raw material, it is used by glass and ceramic industries for making fiberglass and porcelain respectively. As additive, it is used by the soap industry and it is also used by the paper industry for specialty coating purposes as well in order to impart strength and shine and water repellent characteristics to the paper.
EICL has marketing offices in Mumbai and Delhi and has marketing agents in Mauritius, South Africa, GCC, Yemen, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Philippines, Jordan and New Zealand. This company is from the Brij Mohan Thapar Group.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters' holding is a massive at 79.91% while the public holding is only 20.89 %. Among the non-promoters, Lotus Global Investment Ltd alone holds 6.69% of the shares of the company. Hence, the number of shares available for trade in the market is very less. It is also due to this factor, that the scrip had given huge returns to the share holders, in the past.
Financials: The result of the company for the quarter ending September, 2008 is absolutely fantastic and has silenced many critics. The total sales of the company for Q2FY09 came out to be whopping Rs.81.74 Cr as against Rs.68.1 Cr in the same period previous year.
The net profit of the company for the quarter ending September, 2008, became almost double at Rs.8.53 Cr as against Rs.4.8 Cr in the same period previous year (Q2FY08). Hence there is a massive jump in both the top and bottomlines. The EPS of the company for the quarter ending September, 2008 came out to be Rs.10.13 as against Rs.8.62 in the same period previous year.
The operating profit margin of the company also improved to 20.09% in Q2FY09 as against 15.85% in the same period previous year. The net profit margin of the company in Q2FY09, has also shown marked improvement at 11.23% as against 7.07% in Q2FY08.
What is more interesting is that the EPS of the company is Rs.41.45. But what makes the scrip attractive at the CMP, is the low floating stock--this further gives premium value to the shares of the company.
Triggers:
1. English Indian Clays Ltd has entered into Agreements with Wolkem Clay Pvt. Ltd. (WCPL), Kollam and Wolkem Industries Ltd. (WIL), Udaipur towards purchase of the assets of WCPL & WIL.The purchase is expected to be advantageous to the existing activities of the Company.
2. English Indian Clays Ltd earlier informed that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on January 25, 2008, has approved an issue of 7,44,830 Equity Shares of Rs.10 each at a premium of Rs.990 pre share aggregating to Rs.74.48 Cr on right basis in the ratio of 1:6 i.e. 1 (one) new equity share of Rs.10 each for every 6 (six) existing equity shares held on the record date, to part finance the upcoming starch manufacturing project at Shimoga (Karnataka). Do u remember the episode of Radhe Developers Ltd's case in this respect. In a similar move the scrip of Radhe Developers Ltd, (Which I recommended at Rs.7.5 in 2005--06 and which raised lot of eye-brows in the media), became more than 15 times in matter of some months.
3. English Indian Clays Ltd has recommended a final dividend @ 70% on paid up equity share capital of Rs.4,46,89,790 amounting to Rs.3,12,82,853, 5% on 10% Cumulative Redeemable Preference Share capital of Rs.10,00,00,000 amounting to Rs.50,00,000 and 5.5% on 11% Cumulative Redeemable Preference Share Capital of Rs.20,00,00,000 amounting to Rs.1,10,00,000 respectively for the financial year ended March 31, 2008--this is also massive considering the dividend yield. During the year the Company had paid an interim dividend of 5% on 10% Cumulative Redeemable Preference Shares and 5.5% on 11% Cumulative Redeemable Preference Shares respectively.
4. It is an ISO 9001: 2000 Company. Moreover, the company has commissioned the Co-generation Power Plant at Yamuna Nagar and the operation has started from 1st September, 2008. Hence any generation of revenue from the saving of power and from Carbon Credits would be seen in the following quarters. This is a great development in the company as the company could apply to the world body for getting mammoth revenues in the form of Carbon Credits.
5. Over the last 12 years, EICL products have established themselves in the international market. With Hydrous and Calcined Clays of quality comparable with the best grades available in the world, EICL products offer distinct techno-commercial advantage in Africa, South East Asia, Far East and Middle-East markets due to its geographical location.Two major Indian ports of Cochin & Tuticorin are 200 kms from the works. Frequent connections to all the major ports in the world are available from these ports.
6. Strong R&D with well equipped Application Laboratories are there at all the three manufacturing locations i.e Thiruvananthapuram, Yamunanagar and Puducherry.The lab has Paper, Paint, Rubber, Cement and Ceramic industry specialists, supported by the most modern equipments, who constantly thrive for offering proactive solutions to the respective industries.
7. The Company's ability to sustain a steady and time bound supply schedule coupled with its constant striving for excellence has given it that extra edge over all its competitors in the field. With its rich reserves, hi-technology, vast experience of its motivated employees and deep commitment to quality, EICL is all set to take a place of pride the twenty first century as the preferred source for the best companies in the business.
Moreover, due to depreciation of value of INR against Dollar (USD), the company will be able to generated additional revenues.
Chartically Speaking, the stock is in the Highly Oversold Territory and a bounce could be expected anytime now, which could take the stock to around Rs.550---Rs.700 (or more) by January, 2009. The two chief Chartical Indicators, MACD and Bollinger Bands shows that the scrip is BUY MODE, at present. A cross over can take the stock to above Rs.700 in the next few months.
Buy the stock at the CMP of Rs.405/- or when the market stabilizes for some decent appreciation in the days to come. The bear markets generally bounce back with vengence, especially when the market falls NOT due to Internal Fundamentals but due to some "Ripple Effect".
In the present circumstances, please buy the stock above Rs.270 in any case.

ASM TECHNOLOGY - A GOOD LONG TERM BET !!

2008-12-17T07:13:00.000+05:30

ASM Technologies Ltd hit the buyer freeze before cooling down a bit. There are rumours that the government of India is readying a package for the Information Technology Sector, in a new way. Moreover, any strength of the US economy is good for the Indian IT companies. But since this company has now changed it policy to focus on its domestic market in a more vigorous way, good days are ahead for ASM Technogies Ltd.
Some marketmen who fooled investors into not investing in the Real Esate Sector are trying to do the same thing with the IT sector. If you want to make money forget the faces of these Chits and Thugs who appear in various Business Channels and try to act as soothsayers. Their myth about non-performance of the IT sector will soon be demolished..Just invest in the IT sector for the time being as this sector is already highly oversold.
sumanspeaks says.....

2008-12-01T19:50:00.002+05:30

Sensex could touch 16, 000 in the next four months time frame: Ashok Motwani
Financial Astrologer Ashok Motiani feels the worst is over for the Indian stock market. He expects the market to go much higher from here on. He sees the Sensex at around 15,000-16,000 levels within four months time.
Ashok Motwani a financial astrologer was featured on a leading business news channel in India. Financial downturn is really bringing out the desparate best amongst everyone and stock traders or even business news channels are no exception.
Any good news is welcome, even if it is from an astrologer, lets hope he is right.
Q: Do you think worst is over?
A: Yes, the worst is over.
Q: So where do you see the market going from here?
A: I have always said the stock market is going to go down and this is the first time that I am bullish on this market. It is going to go much-much higher from here. My target for Sensex is at least 15,000 and it can go upto 16,000 and for Nifty it is more than 4,500.
Q: How soon do you see all this happening?
A: Within four months’ time, latest by February. This market will start going higher right away, Monday onwards, and can I recap what happened inlast 10 months. Last December, I said the market is going to decline heavily during the middle of July 7, 2007 especially July 15.
I was bullishfor April and till March, I was negative. Then again on May 1 on my website I wrotethat we are heading for a bumpy ride and I indicated the market is goingto sell off. Later on May 27, I said it is going to go at 14,000 and it went to12,500 on July 15. I said in an e-mail to all my the market hasbottomed out buy it now, within a month market will be up 2,000 points and market went up 2,800 points within five days. On July 23, I said to sell because after August 14 the market is going to go down again and on August 14, I wrote the banks will come on an attack and there is going to be a major sell-off between August 15 and September 15 and so many banks collapsed inAmerica and stock market soldoff.
Then on September 15, till the end of September, I was slightly bullish and I went wrong completely I thought the market will go up 1,000-1,500 points but it didn’t happened and went down 1,000-points. On October 2, I send an e-mail saying that market is going to decline very heavily and the worst will come that on October 15 and end of November, when Nifty went to 2,500 I gave a buy call and I said that even if it goes to 2,200-2,300 no problem start buying good companies, youwill not be able to buy good companies again and I will announce the market bottoming out when the time comes.
On the October26, I said that the market will either bottom out on 29 or 31 and there were three days when the market was open 27, 29 and 31 and exactly that is what has happened, on October 28, the US market rallied- and the market has already bottomed out and what we see here is little bit of ups and downs. But from Monday onwards this market is going higher. It is possible by end of Decemberthis market is going to touch 15,000-16,000, but if not then at least 15,000 definitely and we will have minor sell off and then market will again rise andwill be very bullish till February end.
Q: Could you quickly take us through the arrangement of stars, which is leading you to thiskind of prediction?
A: Everytime Isay something, I gethundreds of emails questioning me. Last timeI had said something about Guru being vakriya and dhanu and so many things and the stock market has declined for so-and-so reason —there were several factors, which I am not going to disclose because that is my knowledge and I know how it works.
But the big picture is on December 10, Jupiter enters in Makar rashi, which is theninth house Bhagyasthan India’s horoscope and it will be in seventhhouse from India’s Chandra rashi Kark creating a powerful Karkrashi yog, ninth in Bhagyasthan from Lagna and seventh from Chandra. These are bullish factors. For the first time I think, the Indian stock market has decoupled from the rest of the world and started running upward, anystock market after that should outperform the rest of the world, even though the US market is going to go higher from here too. [From Internet]

How the crisis came home ???

2008-11-28T07:22:00.005+05:30

Shalini S. Dagar
October 30, 2008
Capitulation is actually a military term. However, last fortnight it was resonating across world markets as equities tumbled scarily. In tandem, commodities led by crude, and virtually all global currencies barring the dollar, dipped to new lows. Fears of a deep, long global recession gained ground even as the UK economy shrunk in July-September— for the first time in 16 years. Chaos reigned back home, too. As the Sensex plunged to a threeyear low, and blue-chip stocks crashed by 40-50 per cent, talk of sovereign stabilisation funds and “unconventional” measures to infuse liquidity gained currency. “With other sources of funds drying up, the banking sector is saddled with twice the normal requirement for funds,” says Jitender Balakrishnan, Deputy Managing Director, IDBI Bank. Despite the central bank having pumped Rs 185,000 crore (till the time of BT going to press) into the banking system via a series of measures (see Interview with Reserve Bank of India Governor alongside), banks are still fearful of lending, and are parking surplus funds with the central bank. “Banks have not resumed lending to consumers or companies. It takes time for policy actions to trickle down,” says A.K.R. Nedungadi, President and Chief Financial Officer, UB Group. He hopes that when his company approaches the market for funds in another two months, things will have stabilised.If the fall of Wall Street giants was a shock, then the rapidity of the reverberations on Dalal Street is unnerving. What happened? And why? Isn’t the Indian economy largely insulated from the global capital pool? How did the crisis come home?
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400 large companies in India operate global treasuries, which implied that with a day’s lag, the difficulties of London money market were visible in the Indian money market
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A recent paper co-authored by Jahangir Aziz, Ila Patnaik and Ajay Shah under the aegis of NIPFP-DEA tries to explain the complex linkages between the seemingly unrelated events. Their hypothesis in brief: in trying to manage the exchange rate, growth and inflation, the central bank had kept the system chronically tight on liquidity. Several Indian companies that had been using the London money market fell short of dollar liquidity in mid-September. So they borrowed on the money market and took US dollars out. At the same time, corporations were liquidating their holdings in mutual funds. Mutual funds, too, then started making claims on the money market, leading to a colossal shortage of liquidity. This was accentuated by factors such as advance tax payments and sale of dollars by RBI to prop up the rupee.Plausible? Perhaps, but that may not be the only explanation for the domestic turmoil, say finance heads of companies. “Yes, we did sell over Rs 200 crore of our holdings in mutual funds; yet, that was to meet our domestic requirements. The redemptions would not have happened if the consumer market was growing,” says the Chief Financial Officer of a consumer durables company. The rupee’s fall also hastened the outflow.Whatever the reason, the heightened risk perception is cascading through the economy. Sample: fear of deteriorating credit quality of the papers subscribed by mutual funds under the Fixed Maturity Plans (FMPs), especially those by realtors and non-banking finance companies. On the liquid funds, credit rating major CRISIL gave eight debt mutual funds schemes a 30-day period forrealigning their portfolios in line with credit quality requirements so as to avoid a rating action. Though this represents a fraction of the overall investments, it indicates rising stress in the face of deteriorating macro-economic fundamentals.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------26.5% fall in rupee value against the US dollar this year (till October 24, 2008) has upset the calculations of a majority of industry players who had been betting on the rupee appreciating
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Is there a way to manage this extraordinary crisis? In their paper cited above, the three economists point to a four-pronged strategy—increase rupee liquidity, increase dollar liquidity, refrain from artificial exchange rate stability, and remove currency mismatches. Author Ajay Shah believes the RBI has moved quite a bit on providing rupee liquidity but the weakest links in the coming days will be dollar liquidity and currency mismatches.However, as M.M. Miyajiwala, CFO, Voltas, says: “In this scenario, normal measures by the RBI alone will not help.” The government, too, can help with measures like increased government spending. So would measures like a direct release of dollars to large companies.
source :

KNOW ABOUT LUNG CANCER ---

2008-11-21T19:43:00.010+05:30

Friday, November 21, 2008
Diagnosis, Prevention and Screening
Diagnosis :::
Performing a chest x-ray is the first step if a patient reports symptoms that may be suggestive of lung cancer. This may reveal an obvious mass, widening of the mediastinum (suggestive of spread to lymph nodes there), atelectasis (collapse), consolidation (pneumonia), or pleural effusion. If there are no x-ray findings but the suspicion is high (such as a heavy smoker with blood-stained sputum), bronchoscopy and/or a CT scan may provide the necessary information. Bronchoscopy or CT-guided biopsy is often used to identify the tumor type

The differential diagnosis for patients who present with abnormalities on chest x-ray includes lung cancer as well as nonmalignant diseases. These include infectious causes such as tuberculosis or pneumonia, or inflammatory conditions such as sarcoidosis. These diseases can result in mediastinal lymphadenopathy or lung nodules, and sometimes mimic lung cancers. Lung cancer can also be an incidental finding: a solitary pulmonary nodule (also called a coin lesion) on a chest x-ray or CT scan taken for an unrelated reason.
Prevention ::
Prevention is the most cost-effective means of fighting lung cancer. While in most countries industrial and domestic carcinogens have been identified and banned, tobacco smoking is still widespread. Eliminating tobacco smoking is a primary goal in the prevention of lung cancer, and smoking cessation is an important preventative tool in this process
Policy interventions to decrease passive smoking in public areas such as restaurants and workplaces have become more common in many Western countries, with California taking a lead in banning smoking in public establishments in 1998. Ireland played a similar role in Europe in 2004, followed by Italy and Norway in 2005, Scotland as well as several others in 2006, England in 2007, and France in 2008. New Zealand has banned smoking in public places as of 2004. The state of Bhutan has had a complete smoking ban since 2005. In many countries, pressure groups are campaigning for similar bans. In 2007, Chandigarh became the first city in India to become smoke-free.
Arguments cited against such bans are criminalisation of smoking, increased risk of smuggling, and the risk that such a ban cannot be enforced. A 2008 study performed in over 75,000 middle-aged and elderly people demonstrated that the long-term use of supplemental multivitamins—such as vitamin C, vitamin E, and folate—did not reduce the risk of lung cancer. To the contrary, the study indicates that the long-term intake of high doses of vitamin E supplements may even increase the risk of lung cancer. The World Health Organization has called for governments to institute a total ban on tobacco advertising in order to prevent young people from taking up smoking. They assess that such bans have reduced tobacco consumption by 16% where already instituted.
Screening :
Screening refers to the use of medical tests to detect disease in asymptomatic people. Possible screening tests for lung cancer include chest x-ray or computed tomography (CT) of the chest. So far, screening programs for lung cancer have not demonstrated any clear benefit. Randomized controlled trials are underway in this area to see if decreased long-term mortality can be directly observed from CT screening.
How viruses are thought to cause cancer ???
Viruses that are known to cause cancer such as HPV, cervical cancer, Hepatitis B, liver cancer, and EBV, a type of lymphoma, are all DNA viruses. It is thought that, when the virus infects a cell, it inserts a part of its own DNA near the cell growth genes, causing cell division. The group of changed cells that are formed from the first cell dividing all have the same viral DNA near the cell growth genes. The group of changed cells are now special because one of the normal controls on growth has been lost.
Depending on their location, cells can be damaged through radiation from sunshine, chemicals from cigarette smoke, and inflammation from bacterial infection or other viruses. Each cell has a chance of damage, a step on a path toward cancer. Cells often die if they are damaged, through failure of a vital process or the immune system; however, sometimes damage will knock out a single cancer gene. In an old person, there are thousands, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of knocked-out cells. The chance that any one would form a cancer is very low.
When the damage occurs in any area of changed cells, something different occurs. Each of the cells has the potential for growth. The changed cells will divide quicker when the area is damaged by physical, chemical, or viral agents. A vicious cycle has been set up: Damaging the area will cause the changed cells to divide, causing a greater likelihood that they will suffer knock-outs.
This model of carcinogenesis is popular because it explains why cancers grow. It would be expected that cells that are damaged through radiation would die or at least be worse off because they have fewer genes working; viruses increase the number of genes working.
One concern is that we may end up with thousands of vaccines to prevent every virus that can change our cells. Viruses can have different effects on different parts of the body. It may be possible to prevent a number of different cancers by immunising against one viral agent. It is likely that HPV, for instance, has a role in cancers of the mucous membranes of the mouth.
Causes of lung cancer ::::
The main causes of lung cancer (and cancer in general) include carcinogens (such as those in tobacco smoke), ionizing radiation, and viral infection. This exposure causes cumulative changes to the DNA in the tissue lining the bronchi of the lungs (the bronchial epithelium). As more tissue becomes damaged, eventually a cancer develops.
Smoking :
The incidence of lung cancer is highly correlated with smoking. Source: NIH.
Smoking, particularly of cigarettes, is by far the main contributor to lung cancer. Across the developed world, almost 90% of lung cancer deaths are caused by smoking. In the United States, smoking is estimated to account for 87% of lung cancer cases (90% in men and 85% in women). Among male smokers, the lifetime risk of developing lung cancer is 17.2%; among female smokers, the risk is 11.6%. This risk is significantly lower in nonsmokers: 1.3% in men and 1.4% in women. Cigarette smoke contains over 60 known carcinogens, including radioisotopes from the radon decay sequence, nitrosamine, and benzopyrene. Additionally, nicotine appears to depress the immune response to malignant growths in exposed tissue.
The length of time a person smokes (as well as rate of smoking) increases the person's chance of developing lung cancer. If a person stops smoking, this chance steadily decreases as damage to the lungs is repaired and contaminant particles are gradually removed. In addition, there is evidence that lung cancer in never-smokers has a better prognosis than in smokers, and that patients who smoke at the time of diagnosis have shorter survival times than those who have quit.
Passive smoking—the inhalation of smoke from another's smoking—is a cause of lung cancer in nonsmokers. A passive smoker can be classified as someone living or working with a smoker as well. Studies from the U.S.,Europe, the UK, and Australia have consistently shown a significant increase in relative risk among those exposed to passive smoke. Recent investigation of sidestream smoke suggests that it is more dangerous than direct smoke inhalation.

Radon gas::
Radon is a colorless and odorless gas generated by the breakdown of radioactive radium, which in turn is the decay product of uranium, found in the earth's crust. The radiation decay products ionize genetic material, causing mutations that sometimes turn cancerous. Radon exposure is the second major cause of lung cancer, after smoking. Radon gas levels vary by locality and the composition of the underlying soil and rocks. For example, in areas such as Cornwall in the UK (which has granite as substrata), radon gas is a major problem, and buildings have to be force-ventilated with fans to lower radon gas concentrations. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that one in 15 homes in the U.S. has radon levels above the recommended guideline of 4 picocuries per liter (pCi/L) (148 Bq/m³). Iowa has the highest average radon concentration in the United States; studies performed there have demonstrated a 50% increased lung cancer risk, with prolonged radon exposure above the EPA's action level of 4 pCi/L.
Asbestos::
Asbestos can cause a variety of lung diseases, including lung cancer. There is a synergistic effect between tobacco smoking and asbestos in the formation of lung cancer. In the UK, asbestos accounts for 2–3% of male lung cancer deaths. Asbestos can also cause cancer of the pleura, called mesothelioma (which is different from lung cancer).

Viruses:::
Viruses are known to cause lung cancer in animals and recent evidence suggests similar potential in humans. Implicated viruses include human papillomavirus, JC virus, simian virus 40 (SV40), BK virus, and cytomegalovirus.These viruses may affect the cell cycle and inhibit apoptosis, allowing uncontrolled cell division.
Sign and Symptoms ::
Symptoms that suggest lung cancer include:* dyspnea (shortness of breath)* hemoptysis (coughing up blood)* chronic coughing or change in regular coughing pattern* wheezing* chest pain or pain in the abdomen* cachexia (weight loss), fatigue, and loss of appetite* dysphonia (hoarse voice)* clubbing of the fingernails (uncommon)* dysphagia (difficulty swallowing).If the cancer grows in the airway, it may obstruct airflow, causing breathing difficulties. This can lead to accumulation of secretions behind the blockage, predisposing the patient to pneumonia. Many lung cancers have a rich blood supply. The surface of the cancer may be fragile, leading to bleeding from the cancer into the airway. This blood may subsequently be coughed up.Depending on the type of tumor, so-called paraneoplastic phenomena may initially attract attention to the disease. In lung cancer, these phenomena may include Lambert-Eaton myasthenic syndrome (muscle weakness due to auto-antibodies), hypercalcemia, or syndrome of inappropriate antidiuretic hormone (SIADH). Tumors in the top (apex) of the lung, known as Pancoast tumors, may invade the local part of the sympathetic nervous system, leading to changed sweating patterns and eye muscle problems (a combination known as Horner's syndrome) as well as muscle weakness in the hands due to invasion of the brachial plexus.Many of the symptoms of lung cancer (bone pain, fever, and weight loss) are nonspecific; in the elderly, these may be attributed to comorbid illness. In many patients, the cancer has already spread beyond the original site by the time they have symptoms and seek medical attention. Common sites of metastasis include the bone, such as the spine (causing back pain and occasionally spinal cord compression); the liver; and the brain. About 10% of people with lung cancer do not have symptoms at diagnosis; these cancers are incidentally found on routine chest x-rays.
Classification of lung cancer ::
Frequency of histological types of lung cancer
Histological type
Frequency (%)
Non-small cell lung carcinoma
80.4
Small cell lung carcinoma
16.8
Carcinoid
0.8
Sarcoma
0.1
Unspecified lung cancer
1.9
The vast majority of lung cancers are carcinomas—malignancies that arise from epithelial cells. There are two main types of lung carcinoma, categorized by the size and appearance of the malignant cells seen by a histopathologist under a microscope: non-small cell (80.4%) and small-cell (16.8%) lung carcinoma.This classification, based on histological criteria, has important implications for clinical management and prognosis of the disease.

Non-small Cell Lung Carcinoma (NSCLC)::
The non-small cell lung carcinomas are grouped together because their prognosis and management are similar. There are three main sub-types: squamous cell lung carcinoma, adenocarcinoma, and large cell lung carcinoma.
Sub-types of non-small cell lung cancer insmokers and never-smokers
Histological sub-type
Frequency of non-small cell lung cancers (%)
Smokers
Never-smokers
Squamous cell lung carcinoma
42
33
Adenocarcinoma
Adenocarcinoma (not otherwise specified)
39
35
Bronchioloalveolar carcinoma
4
10
Carcinoid
7
16
Other
8
6
Accounting for 31.2% of lung cancers, squamous cell lung carcinoma usually starts near a central bronchus. Cavitation and necrosis within the center of the cancer is a common finding. Well-differentiated squamous cell lung cancers often grow more slowly than other cancer types.
Adenocarcinoma accounts for 29.4% of lung cancers. It usually originates in peripheral lung tissue. Most cases of adenocarcinoma are associated with smoking; however, among people who have never smoked ("never-smokers"), adenocarcinoma is the most common form of lung cancer. A subtype of adenocarcinoma, the bronchioloalveolar carcinoma, is more common in female never-smokers, and may have different responses to treatment.

Small cell Lung Carcinoma (SCLC) :::
Small cell lung carcinoma (microscopic view of a core needle biopsy).
Small cell lung carcinoma (SCLC, also called "oat cell carcinoma") is less common. It tends to arise in the larger airways (primary and secondary bronchi) and grows rapidly, becoming quite large. The "oat" cell contains dense neurosecretory granules (vesicles containing neuroendocrine hormones), which give this an endocrine/paraneoplastic syndrome association. While initially more sensitive to chemotherapy, it ultimately carries a worse prognosis and is often metastatic at presentation. Small cell lung cancers are divided into limited stage and extensive stage disease. This type of lung cancer is strongly associated with smoking.
Metastatic Cancers:::
The lung is a common place for metastasis from tumors in other parts of the body. These cancers are identified by the site of origin; thus, a breast cancer metastasis to the lung is still known as breast cancer. They often have a characteristic round appearance on chest x-ray. Primary lung cancers themselves most commonly metastasize to the adrenal glands, liver, brain, and bone.
Staging ::
Lung cancer staging is an assessment of the degree of spread of the cancer from its original source. It is an important factor affecting the prognosis and potential treatment of lung cancer. Non-small cell lung carcinoma is staged from IA ("one A"; best prognosis) to IV ("four"; worst prognosis). Small cell lung carcinoma is classified as limited stage if it is confined to one half of the chest and within the scope of a single radiotherapy field; otherwise, it is extensive stage.
What is lung cancer ?
Lung cancer is a disease of uncontrolled cell growth in tissues of the lung. This growth may lead to metastasis, which is invasion of adjacent tissue and infiltration beyond the lungs. The vast majority of primary lung cancers are carcinomas of the lung, derived from epithelial cells. Lung cancer, the most common cause of cancer-related death in men and the second most common in women, is responsible for 1.3 million deaths worldwide annually. The most common symptoms are shortness of breath, coughing (including coughing up blood), and weight loss.
The main types of lung cancer are small cell lung carcinoma and non-small cell lung carcinoma. This distinction is important, because the treatment varies; non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) is sometimes treated with surgery, while small cell lung carcinoma (SCLC) usually responds better to chemotherapy and radiation. The most common cause of lung cancer is long-term exposure to tobacco smoke. The occurrence of lung cancer in nonsmokers, who account for as many as 20% of cases, is often attributed to a combination of genetic factors, radon gas, asbestos, and air pollution, including secondhand smoke. Lung cancer may be seen on chest x-ray and computed tomography (CT scan). The diagnosis is confirmed with a biopsy. This is usually performed via bronchoscopy or CT-guided biopsy. Treatment and prognosis depend upon the histological type of cancer, the stage (degree of spread), and the patient's performance status. Possible treatments include surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. With treatment, the five-year survival rate may be possible.
Posted by nugrahaboy

2008-11-21T19:19:00.002+05:30

Specials :
Samsung Omnia i900 16GB - unlocked $500.00
Touch media. Enjoy a 5 mega-pixel camera, Bluetooth & Wi-Fi with a stunning 3.5" touch sensitive display.

Touch:Intuitive touch. The Samsung Omnia i900 unlocked Sweep UI (User Interface) lets you control the Samsung i900 with simple and intuitive gesutres and touches; scroll, pan, flip or zoom with a single touch. The large WQVGA display and touch sensitive screen brings full control to your fingertips, literallyMove:Let the Samsung i900 move with you. A built in accelerometer lets the Samsung i900 automatically adjust to whatever angle you hold. Shake, flip or spin and the Samsung i900 adapts displaying extra menu options, switching movies to wide-screen or simply adjusting the display to the most comfortable angle. Photography:Capture special moments with the Samsung i900. A 5 mega-pixel camera with auto focus, LED flash lets you take digital camera quality photographs without your camera. Face detection technology automatically tracks faces in photographs making sure they are always in focus and sharp. Touch:Innovative optical joystick acts like a mini mouse, letting you hop screens and scroll through favorite options with ease.Guide:Let the i900 guide you, literally. Assisted GPS combines with your favourite navigation software to take you where you need to go. Do more then just navigation. The Assisted GPS capability of the i900 and location based services lets you find useful and popular locations around you. Find cash points, clubs, cinemas, restaurants, what ever you need. Office:Make better use of time. The Samsung i900 offers the full suite of applications to let you make the most of your time. Create and edit Microsoft Office documents on the go. Get e-mails delivered instantly with push e-mail to always know what's happening. Full Microsoft Exchange support lets you collect e-mails, schedule meetings and update your schedule information on the move. Wireless Media:Turn your Samsung i900 into a wireless jukebox with DLNA support. DLNA (Digital Living Network Alliance) allows your Samsung i900 to connect to other DLNA & Wi-Fi compatible devices turning into into a wireless multi-media jukebox. Watch movies on your TV sent directly from your Samsung i900, send high quality stereo music directly to your DLNA enabled hi-fi all without wires. Internet:Find what you need. High speed 3G & Wi-Fi let you connect to the internet at broadband speeds. The installed Opera web browser intelligently scales complete web pages to fit the Samsung i900. Media:Relax with the Samsung i900. The built in media player and large hi-res screen lets you watch movies, listen to MP3's or unwind listening to your favourite radio show. 16GB of on-board memory and microSDHC slot provides space for over 4000 songs.
Brand:
Samsung
Manufacturer:
Samsung Electronics
Physical Attributes
Dimensions(width x height x depth):
56.9 x 112 x 12.5 millimetres2.2 x 4.4 x 0.5 inches
Bounding Volume:
79.7 cubecentimetres
Software Environment
Embedded Operating System:
Microsoft Windows Mobile 6.1 Professional
Operating System Kernel:
Windows CE 5.2
Microprocessor, Chipset
CPU:
Marvell PXA320
Width of Machine Word:
32 bit
CPU Core:
Intel XScale
Level 2 cache:
256 KiB
Instruction Set:
ARM
Memory, Storage capacity
ROM type:
Flash EEPROM
ROM capacity:
16000 MiB
RAM type:
DDR SDRAM
RAM capacity:
128 MiB
Graphical subsystem
Display Type:
color transflective TFT display
Display Color Depth:
18 bit/pixel (262144 scales)
Display Diagonal:
3.2 " (81 millimetres)
Display Resolution:
400 x 240 (96000 pixels)
Viewable Display Area:
2.7" x 1.6" (69.46 x 41.67 millimetres)
Dot Pitch:
0.1736 millimetre/pixel
Video out:
SupportedProprietary connector
Audio Subsystem
Audio Channel(s):
stereo sound
Analog/Digital Converter(Recording):
16 bit nominal quantization 44100 Hz sampling frequency
Digital/Analog Converter(Playing):
16 bit resolution44100 Hz holding frequency
Microphone(s):
mono sound
Loadspeaker(s):
mono sound
Audio Output:
Proprietary plug
Cellular Phone
Cellular Networks:
GSM850, GSM900, GSM1800, GSM1900, UMTS2100
Cellular Data Links:
CSD, GPRS, EDGE, UMTS, HSDPA
Cellular Antenna:
Internal antenna
Call Alert:
64 -chord melody (polyphonic)
Vibrating Alert:
Supported
Speakerphone :
Supported
Control Peripherals
Positioning Device:
Touchscreen & TouchPad
Primary Keyboard:
Not supported
Directional Pad:
Not supported
Scroll Wheel:
Not supported
Interfaces
Expansion Interfaces:
microSD, microSDHC, TransFlash, SDIO Supports High Capacity (SD 2.0/HC) memory cards with capacity of up to 32GB
USB:
USB 2.0 client, Full-Speed (12Mbit/s)Proprietary connector
Bluetooth (802.15):
Bluetooth 2.0, Internal antenna
Wireless LAN/Wi-Fi (802.11):
IEEE 802.11b, IEEE 802.11g, 54 Mbit/sInternal antenna
Infrared Gate:
Not supported
Multimedia Telecommunication
Analog Radio:
FM radio (87.5-108MHz) with RDS radio recieverProprietary headset as antenna
Digital Media Broadcast:
Not supported
Satellite Navigation
Built-in GPS module:
Supported
GPS Protocol:
NMEA 0183
GPS Antenna:
Internal antenna
Complementary GPS Services:
Assisted GPS
Built-in Digital Camera
Sensor Type:
CMOS sensor
Resolution:
2560 x1920 pixels (4.92MP)
Autofocus (AF):
Supported
Optical Zoom:
1 x
Macro Mode:
Not supported
Built-in Flash:
real flash
Camcorder:
320x240 pixels
Recordable Image Formats:
JPG
Recordable Video Formats:
3GPP, MPEG4
Built-in Secondary Digital Camera
Sensor Type:
CMOS sensor
Resolution:
640 x680 pixels (0.44MP)
Camcorder:
320x240pixel
Recordable Image Formats:
JPG
Recordable Video Formats:
3GPP, MPEG4
Power Supply
Battery Technology:
Lithium-ion battery
Battery Build:
removable
Estimated Battery Life:
11 hours
Battery Capacity:
1440 mAh
Estimated Avarege Current:
131 mA
Additional Details
Built-in accelerometer:
Supported
Additional Features:
GPRS Class 10
Samsung TouchWiz UI
Bluetooth stereo audio profile (A2DP)
voice command

KEEP WATCHING & DO SIP IN NMDC @ EVERY FALL ^^^

2008-11-20T07:23:00.005+05:30

NMDC taps Rio Tinto for Birbhum mine
Public sector diversified mineral resources company, NMDC, is planning to induct a foreign partner in its proposed joint venture for thermal coal in West Bengal, and has held talks with Rio Tinto, the world's second largest mineral company.
Rana Som, chairman and managing director of NMDC, said, "We would look at technology and cost. We have held talks with Rio also, but ultimately it will be a commercial decision."The coal block in Birbhum, West Bengal, is among the five largest mines in India with estimated reserves of around two billion tons. The initial investment is pegged at Rs 1,000 crore.NMDC already has a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Rio Tinto for a joint venture aimed at developing mines in the domestic and overseas markets.Som said, the coal block would involve huge overburdening in the first phase and for that part Rio would not be required.
NMDC today signed an MoU with the West Bengal Mineral Development & Trading Corporation (WBMTDC), for exploring and developing the Deocha-Pachami block covering 9.7 square km.Som said, initially work would begin on 3.3 square kilometre, which would have reserves of 450 million tons and a depth of 100 metres.
The joint venture company would be formed once the coal block was allotted. NMDC would have 50 per cent while the WBMDTC would have 40 per cent and another 10 per cent would be with West Bengal Power Distribution Company Limited.NMDC has the right to dilute up to 15 per cent of equity.With this move NMDC, India's largest iron ore producer and exporter, was making a major foray into thermal coal mining.
Earlier NMDC had been allotted two coal blocks in Madhya Pradesh but those were much smaller.Som said, NMDC was interest in bulk mining like iron ore and coal and had decided to embark on bauxite mining as well. "NMDC has applied for lease in Jharkhand," he said.NMDC today signed an MoU with the Bengal government for offtake agreements from new iron ore and bauxite mines of the PSU.
Apart from diversifying into coal and bauxite, NMDC has also entered into a joint venture with Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertiliser for rock phosphate mining."We have started work in Jordan, Tunisia and Syria and have already bid for exploration. India is a net importer of 95 per cent of rock phosphate...
NMDC signs MoU with WBMDTC for coal mining
KOLKATA: The public sector unit, NMDC Limited, on Tuesday signed a MoU with West Bengal Mineral Development and Trading Corporation to explore, develop and mine coal at Deocha- Pachami block in Birbhum district which has a reserve of two billion tonne. --I t will be a 50:50 joint venture with WBMDTC. The coal block is spread over 9.7 sq km of which mining will be initially done in 3.2 sq km having a reserve of 450 million tonne at a depth of 100 metre,-- said Mr Rana Som, CMD, NMDC Ltd. This is one of the five biggest coal blocks in the country, Rana said.
The MoU was signed by NMDC Director (Technical) P S Upadhyay and WBMDCTC CMD Arun Kumar Sen in the presence of Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and Steel Minister Ram Vilas Paswan. The MoU paves the way for geological exploration of coal deposits to establish technical and commercial viability of the project. Som said that NMDC, which is on fast track expansion and diversification mode, would make initial investment of about Rs 1,000 crore for the project.
The state government would acquire and provide the land for coal mining in the block, he further said adding that NMDC, which had forayed into coal mining, has also started exploration process for two coal blocks in Madhya Pradesh. - PTI...

NMDC hikes ore prices for long-term deals 30-40%
KOLKATA: NMDC Ltd has increased iron ore prices for long-term agreements (LTA) by 30-40% across a range of products after final round of negotiations with Japanese steel mills --- or the so- called JSM pricing --- last week. The prices have been fixed for 2008-09.The hike is based on the increase in Australian ore prices, where prices for iron ore lumps were raised 96.5% and for iron ore fines 79%.
"Based on this formula, the increase in prices has worked out between 30% and 40%. Though this is the final price, we are looking at alternatives for the customer. We are awaiting responses from the customer," company sources told DNA Money, hinting at the possibility of signing some contracts on lower rates.
The steel sector is expected to fiercely oppose the hike because of the downturn, sources said.NMDC's new price of iron ore lumps would be $126 per tonne against $65 per tonne last year.Such an increase would be almost impossible for domestic steel producers to digest.Additionally, steel companies have gone for production cuts, which would mean less demand for the metal.
"Amid falling international prices and low global demand, a hike raw material costs would be extremely worrisome," said a top steel company executive who did not wish to be named.With any increase in prices, NMDC would stand to gain as it sells 90% of its product through long- term contracts to domestic steel makers, sponge iron plants, pellet plants and pig iron plants.But now the question of being able to sell at such high prices is a crucial issue.The price increase move will affect all major domestic steel players, which buy ore from NMDC.The impact will be less on SAIL and Tata Steel, which have their own captive ore mines.Iron ore prices especially spot prices have tanked over the last couple of months and now are around 30-35% lower than contract prices.
Industry sources said that given the grave international situation and downward demand, international benchmark of iron ore may come down significantly by 15-20% next year."The Australian prices were fixed in the beginning of the year when there was a boom time. The Indian LTA prices got delayed and were fixed on the earlier trend", a source said.About 10% of NMDC's products are exported through MMTC.
PMO rejects Rashtriya Ispat Nigam, NMDC merger proposal

Nov 12, 2008Our BureauHyderabad, Nov. 11 The proposed merger of Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd (RINL) and National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) has been rejected by the Prime Minister's Office (PMO).--The idea of merger of RINL and NMDC was not considered by the PMO as it was not in the interest of both the companies,-- Mr Pramod Kumar Rastogi, Secretary, Ministry of Steel, told Business Line on the sidelines of a conference here on Tuesday.He added that another reason for not considering the proposal was because of the long term contracts that NMDC has entered into with domestic as well as international steel companies.Different takesBoth NMDC and RINL had different takes on the merger proposal. While RINL was keen because a merger would ensure raw material security for the company, NMDC was not too keen as it wanted to foray into steel production.At present, RINL meets its iron ore requirement from supplies made by NMDC from its Bailadila mines in Chhattisgarh. RINL in 2007-08 spent around 60 per cent of its total operating expenditure towards raw material procurement, of which iron ore constituted 25 per cent and coal 26 per cent.RINL has undertaken a massive expansion programme to increase its production capacity from 4.15 million tonnes (mt) to 6.3 mt by 2010.The company also has moved proposals to get captive iron ore mines in Orissa, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh. But none have yielded any positive results so far.NMDC, on the other hand, plans around Rs 14,000 crore for setting up a 3 mt greenfield steel plant at Nagarnar in Chhattisgarh.will this stock ever go anywhere ?
It is known that "NMDC will not go anywhere..." true... very true... you know that`s why we love natural resource stock like NMDC, SESA, VEDANTA, GUJRAT NRE COCK, ASHAPURA... ROHIT- FERRO so much... they are not going to vanish... :) mater of the fact is, we all know that they have just complete their marathon run (of course win it) and in next 2 yr they will move in the side line... but my friends... insted of investing in GOLD ang keep it in your locker pls buy some NMDC and forget it for next 5-7 yr... then one day you will see you childish investment will probably give you the best return of your life... see today when other corporates are running here and there for liquidity... the VEDANATA chairman is looking for fresh mines in all over the worlds... neither he is a child... nor we are....
NMDC, Bengal to join hands for coal
After JSW Steel ground breaking for its 10-million steel plant, the state government will shortly sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with India's diversified mineral resource company NMDC for exploration and development of one of the largest non-coking coal sites having reserves in excess of 2 billion tonnes.
The coal block would be jointly held by NMDC and West Bengal Mineral Development & Trading Corporation (WBMDTC) in equal partnership.
Rana Som, chairman and managing director, NMDC, confirmed the development....

OMDC is listed in calcutta stock exchange. it is the highest divident paying company in india. the price of omdc is more than 40000 as the eps of omdc was 3100 and if you compare it with other mining cos like nmdc,gmdc or sesa goa you can easily quote its price above 40-45000premium is asked since it is supposed to be very good. it is also 0 debt company. there were rumors that it will get listed in bse in nse some time back floating stock is also low ony 2 lac chares.you have never seen a balance sheet like omdc in any company.Highest Dividend in India by any listed co. Rs. 434 per share of Rs. 10 for March 07 (4340%) which is only 15% of distributable profits.

Continue with SIP in NMDC...
We know it very well, that in next commodity bull run NMDC will thrive...See china already inject 500+ billion in their system... rest of the world will follow soon. You know I strongly belief that this economic slow down will ensure that this time commodity circle won`t take 8- 12 yrs to complete... Infrastructure spending in US, CHINA, Developing world will definitely going to start soon..., Auto industry bust in US and other country... and so on...In next market correction just increase your holding...
I am regularly investing in NMDC, SESA, ASHAPURA..I am confident my money is in safe counter... and of course I am ready to wait 5-8 yrs... may previous experience told me that that we will win this race...
NMDC extracts 100 pc hike in ore prices from Japanese mills
New Delhi, November 9 : Days after securing a hike in prices for its ore from domestic buyers, state- run mineral giant National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) has notched up another victory by securing a 102 per cent hike on its ore exports to Japanese steel mills implying that it will now get $129 per tonne on its exports instead of $65 currently. The navratna company has secured the hike in the midst of a raging debate between the Steel and Commerce ministries on the propriety of such a move by the PSU.
"Yes, NMDC has managed to secure a 96 per cent hike on its export prices from its Japanese buyers. What more, the JSMs have also agreed to give a bonus hike of 6 per cent on its Baladila Lump Ore to the navratna company. Now it is likely to get $129 per tonne on exports," Steel Secretary Pramod Kumar Rastogi told The Indian Express. He said NMDC Chairman and Managing Director Rana Som along with senior officials of his ministry have secured the hike after recent negotiations with the JSMs. Som had pointed out that NMDC is required to pay additional railway freight of about Rs 1,000 per tonne for exporting the mineral besides the imposition of 15 per cent ad-valorem duty (now 8 per cent) on ore export has entailed additional liability to it. "As a consequence it appears that NMDC will have to incur an additional cost of around Rs 1,800 per metric tone for its exports which would bring down its net realisation to an abnormally low figure," he had said.
The CMD said his company would have no justification to export unless the additional cost incurred on account of railway surcharge and export duty is reimbursed by its overseas buyers-Japanese Steel Mills and Posco. The PSU cited that private miners in the country are charging market prices for their ore from the domestic buyers and the prices of calibrated ore prevailing currently varies between Rs 5,500 to Rs 7,000 per tonne depending on size and Ferrous content. NMDC on the other hand supplies about 95 per cent of its produce through LTAs.But steel and commerce ministries were divided on the issue. While the steel ministry endorsed its mining giant's proposal to include rail freight and 15 per cent export duty costs on top of a higher price for iron ore, the commerce ministry has opposed it saying India would risk jeopardising......

Have you heard about Mesothelioma - Asbestos Cancer??!!

2008-11-19T07:29:00.002+05:30

Mesothelioma is a rare form of cancer primarily caused by Asbestos exposure. There is a higher incidence of mesothelioma among U.S. Navy personnel, shipyard workers, etc. due to asbestos exposure on Navy ships. In addition, family members and others closely associated to those exposed to asbestos may also be at risk (for example the wife who washed her husband's work clothes). The cancer typically has a latency period of 20 years to 50 years.
The mesothelium is a membrane that covers and protects most of the internal organs of the body. It is composed of two layers of cells: One layer immediately surrounds the organ; the other forms a sac around it. The mesothelium produces a lubricating fluid that is released between these layers, allowing moving organs (such as the beating heart and the expanding and contracting lungs) to glide easily against adjacent structures.
The mesothelium has different names, depending on its location in the body. The peritoneum is the mesothelial tissue that covers most of the organs in the abdominal cavity. The pleura is the membrane that surrounds the lungs and lines the wall of the chest cavity. The pericardium covers and protects the heart. The mesothelial tissue surrounding the male internal reproductive organs is called the tunica vaginalis testis. The tunica serosa uteri covers the internal reproductive organs in women.

Nifty 2700 an important psychological level !!!!

2008-11-18T18:19:00.000+05:30

The Nifty trading well below 2,700 mark, which has become a very important psychological level these last couple of days.
 Here is a verbatim transcript of Udayan Mukherjees comments on CNBC-TV18.  Tough day for the market; it was down in the morning then it raised hopes in the middle of the day a couple of times that the bounce back was on the offing but every time the weakness has come back to engulf stock prices. So we are below 9,000 once again this afternoon as we last lap of trade and the Nifty disturbingly trading well below 2,700 mark, which has become a very important psychological level these last couple of days.
 Still one hour to claw back but the way some important clusters in the market like banking, technology, power and metals have collapsed today and of course taking the breadth with it is not been very good at all. The market will need to pullback in the last hour of trade like yesterday to salvage something but so far not looking particularly good. 
Yesterday we managed to claw back but today the claw backs have got sold into and that is very discomforting. We have seen a couple of attempts where the market seemed to have decisively bounced back from sub 2700 and went back to around 2,750 and then slipped once again. So its happened couple of times which makes you a bit nervous about whether this level will hold out today. .

Its a tough going and its also important to understand that while we keep talking about the retest of the lows, if one looks at the closing lows of October that is about 2,500 plus Nifty and 8,500 Sensex on October 27, so we are barely 5% away from our closing low for October whatever the intraday gyration may have been spiked down on the way South. 
This is dangerously close to a break down. I hope we create a little bit of cushion above 2,700 by the time the day is out because who knows what we come back with tomorrow morning to trade. In any case we are very close to the S&P October lows. So the next 24-48 hours assume a lot of importance but I think todays closing could be quite significant too. 

AREVA T & D - MEDIUM TO LONG TERM INVESTMENT BET !!!

2008-11-16T08:51:00.004+05:30

About The CompanyThe company is a well managed with balanced plans and system of expansion. Instead of global weakness and shortage of liquidity the company has managed to maintain a balanced growth and has good expansion plansAbout The FinancialsAreva T&D India Ltd for the third quarter ended 30th September 2008 . The company's net sales rose 35.57% on a YoY to Rs 586.46 crore. Operating profit grew by 11% at rs.85 crore. Profit after tax of Rs 52.31 crore for the quarter was up by 8.89%.During the third quarter, the company made significant additions to its customer list and secured major contracts from Bhilai Steel Plant worth Rs.221 crore.Cues On the Stock.1. Areva will provide the transmission and distribution services to the steel plant.2. The power company will also supply substations to the steel plant and revamp its existing substations. The company expects to complete the project by October 2010.3.It also got an order from RRVPNL Hybrid substation and distribution transformers for wind energy segment, a first for the company.4. Expansions, with six new factories at three greenfield sites at Baroda, Hosur and Chennai Padappai ready for production by March 2009.About The Stock.The company is good for medium to long term prospective as its planning of expansion and future development remains good.

source : multibageradviser(dot)com

ENGLISH INDIA CLAYS - BEST INVESTMENT BET !!

2008-11-08T18:08:00.003+05:30

English Indian Clays Ltd is came out with wonderful September, 2008 quarter results. The company has purchased the land for the upcoming starch manufacturing plant in Shimogha. The stock could move to Rs.1200 by March, 2009. The company is comming with right issue @ Rs.1000/- per share shortly. Hence keep a close watch on the counter. The specialty of this counter is that when it starts to hit the circuits even it will be difficult for God to enter the scrip. It is a Power, Land, Mining, and monopoly products story.

Obama's views on all things

2008-11-07T06:37:00.003+05:30

Democrat Barack Obama, who was elected as the 44th President of the United States, is known to be an admirer of world's largest democracy as well as father of the nation Mahatma Gandhi. Following are excerpts of some of his quotations:
On present Indo-US ties: "With India, America has one of its most important relationships in an uncertain world...both countries, India and America, are working to protect their people and values of 21st century threats while at the same time respecting the rule of law and cultural pluralism."
On Indo-US ties under an Obama Administration: "I will move forward to build a close strategic partnership between the US and India when I am president of the United States."
On shared Indo-US democratic values: "The world's oldest democracy and the world's largest democracy are natural partners, sharing important interests and fundamental democratic values."
On terrorism, India and the US: "Both countries have been victims of catastrophic terrorist attacks and we have a shared interest in succeeding in the fight against al-Qaeda and its operational and ideological affiliates."
On Mahatma Gandhi: "In my life, I have always looked to Mahatma Gandhi as an inspiration, because he embodies the kind of transformational change that can be made when ordinary people come together to do extraordinary things. Gandhi's significance is universal. Countless people around the world have been touched by his spirit and example."
On the Indo-US nuclear deal: "I voted for the US-India nuclear agreement because India is a strong democracy and a natural strategic partner for the US in the 21st century."
On Kashmir: "We should probably try to facilitate a better understanding between Pakistan and India and try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that they (Pakistan) can stay focused not on India, but on the situation with those militants."
On Chandrayaan-I: "With India's launch of its first unmanned lunar spacecraft following closely on the heels of China's first spacewalk, we are reminded just how urgently the United States must revitalise its space programme if we are to remain the undisputed leader in space, science, and technology." [From Internet]
Posted by SumanSpeaks at 11:31 PM

Going Into A Free Fall !!!!!!!!!

2008-10-28T10:44:00.003+05:30

THE MARKET went through another week of misery, with the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index finishing 12.77% or 1,274.28 points lower, and the Nifty 15.95% down. The CNX Midcap index lost 12.01%. The indices are close to their three-year lows now.Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) was the biggest winner among the index stocks with a 7.9% gain.
The other index stocks to rise included Satyam Computer Services, Infosys Technologies and ITC, with gains falling between 7.9% and 0.4%. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) was the biggest loser among the index stocks with a 34.8% loss. The other index stocks to fall included Tata Motors, Hindalco, DLF and Tata Steel, with losses falling between 33.1% and 28.2%.
United Spirits was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 18.3% gain. The other non-index stocks to go up included HDIL, Educomp Solutions, Titan Industries, Reliance Capital, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, Akruti City and Rolta India, with gains falling between 9.8% and 0.1%.
Unitech was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 62.2% loss. The other non-index stocks to go down included Suzlon Energy, IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects, Idea Cellular, National Aluminium (Nalco), Austral Coke & Projects, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Moser Baer, with losses falling between 45.3% and 30.5%.
INTERMEDIATE TREND: The intermediate downtrend that began on September 8 continues, with a peak loss so far of 6,540 points (43.3%). The level above which the downtrend will end has moved down to 10,750. The equivalent for the Nifty is 3,255 and that for the CNX Midcap index is 3,993.
These intermediate uptrend triggers will come down further to the level at which the next minor rally ends. All global indices are also in severe intermediate downtrends. The Dow will have to cross 9,305 to enter a new intermediate uptrend.
LONG-TERM TREND: The market's long-term (major) trend clearly remains down, with the indices making new bear market lows last week. The bear phase has now cost the Sensitive Index 59.6% in just nine months, making it the worst bear market since the index was launched.It will be best to take the level to be crossed for a major uptrend (i.e. a bull market) as the last but one intermediate top of 15,580, made on August 12. This is because the more recent intermediate top of 15,107 (September 8) is just 3% below that level. The Nifty's equivalent is 4,650, and that for the CNX Midcap is 6,016.
It is unlikely that the next intermediate uptrend will be able to reach that far up, and the level at which it tops out will become the new trigger. The indices had dropped close to their three-year lows by the end of the week, with several stocks even worse off.
However, the situation was better than other global markets, many of which were seeking five-year lows. The five-year low for the BSE Sensitive Index is just over 2,900.
TRADING & INVESTING STRATEGIES: Long-term portfolios can be slowly built up in select stocks even in the current situation. The key is to gradually add to a portfolio, rather than acquire stocks all at once. This is not in anticipation of an early end to the bear market, but simply because downside risk is lower than it is at market tops, when the distance down is substantially larger.
Banks, FMCG, pharmaceuticals and petroleum majors continue to look the safest. Stocks which are down to multi-year lows are best avoided until a bull market is confirmed. These include real estate, steel, finance and broking stocks.
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: Global markets are also in free fall, with the exception of the Dow ' which was assisted by a couple of rallies, and has not been falling that sharply. It is still holding out above its October 10 low of 7,774.
The Dow will have to climb back above 9,925 to enter an intermediate uptrend. It will have to stabilise over 12,000 to get into a bull market. On the
other hand, the Dow can end up testing its 10-year low of 7,181 if it goes into another serious decline.
The BSE Sensitive Index had lost 47.2% in the 12 months that ended on Thursday, down six positions to the 24th place among 35 well-known global indices considered for the study. Slovakia continues to head the list, but with a 7.2% loss. Spain, Belgium, Sri Lanka and Chile follow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 36.5% and the Nasdaq Composite has declined 42.2% over the same period. These rankings do not take exchange rate effects into consideration.
(The author is an independent technical analyst)
Deepak Mohoni

The Domino Effect

2008-10-28T10:35:00.003+05:30

The prices of many commodities have returned to their ?05 levels. Such a huge decline in commodity prices, and that too, over a short period, raises questions about their future direction. Kiran Kabtta elaborates

EVEN AS THIS article was being written, gold fell to 713 per troy ounce and was heading towards one of its biggest weekly losses. Crude oil has already hit 65 per barrel, having fallen 56% since its peak of 147 per barrel in July this year. Prices of base metals, one of the worst performers of recent times, are down by 40-50% since the beginning of the year.
The prices of many commodities have returned to their ?05 levels. Such a huge decline in commodity prices, and that too, over a short period, raises questions about their direction in future. The commodity markets, which have witnessed a bull run since ?05, have not remained unaffected due to the global financial crisis and the ensuing credit crunch.
As the equity meltdown continues, the commodity markets have witnessed aggressive selling. The domino effect among various asset classes has taken its toll on commodities as well.
Equities were at the forefront during the last bull run in financial assets, which began in ?03-04. The boom in equities acted as a leading trigger and source of funds for investors in other asset classes.
Ranging from energy and agriculture commodities to precious and industrial metals, the market started finding reasons to buy into them with a bullish outlook.
Higher crude oil prices post Hurricane Katrina, drought in major wheat-growing areas of the world, the El Nino and La Nina effects, which caused floods and droughts in various parts of the world, were some of the physical factors that were pushing up commodity prices.
The China Olympics proved to be yet another trigger for a rally in industrial commodities. The ensuing construction boom in China managed to push up the prices of most base metals.
That was then. The weakening of equity markets following the sub-prime crisis changed things dramatically, impacting commodity markets as well. The first to feel its effect were base metals and agri-commodities. The energy basket dominated by crude oil and the precious metals basket led by gold managed to pull over, even while other asset prices had started to cool down. Crude oil prices peaked out amidst bearishness in global equity markets. This was primarily due to shifting of investment demand from equities to liquid commodities like crude oil and gold.
However, the crude oil market could not sustain the investment boom for long. With the world?s largest economy steadily being strangulated by the credit crisis and claiming its victims in the form of erstwhile top financial institutions, fund managers had to withdraw from the oil market.
The month of October has proved to be a major dampener for the commodity markets. The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, which showed a modest gain of 1% during the nine months ended September ?08, is now in the red with a 28% loss. The index value, at a little over 5,000 points, is the same as it was at the beginning of ?05.
So, is this meltdown in commodities a blip in the long-term bull run or a conclusion of a three-year bull run? Now that the surplus investments are out, the markets are likely to stabilise around the fair fundamental values in case of each individual commodity.
Probably, a recovery in equity markets may yet again signal an entry into commodities on a case-to-case basis. However, investors are definitely going to be more cautious the next time. As a result, we may not see such mountain-like formations for quite some time to come.

kiran.kabtta@timesgroup.com

Tribhuvan Housing:-Another multibagger?

2008-10-28T10:30:00.001+05:30

Tribhuvan Housing LtdBse code:531703 Cmp:21Target: 50Story:

Buy this multibegger stock, it has being taken over by SIGRUN REALITIES.There will be a reverse merger and open offer soon.Just grab this stock by atleast 100 shares and you will remember it for a long long time.Keep it in your safe for 1 year and then check the rates.Just to give you an idea what you can expect from this one.SIGRUN group is big time into reality and infrastructure,they are developing 2 townships in Vasai and Virar 250 ACRES each.300 towers with 7000 apartments and 1000 shops.You can check this from any of your friends relative living there in virar its known as SIGRUN KINGDOM(Virar West-MUMBAI)and the second one is coming in VASAI E( MUMBAI).These 2 projects alone can give a valuation of 200 + to this stock.24% already placed to FII,check Bse Details.The Reserve Bank of India has today notified that no further purchases of equity shares of the Tribhuvan Housing Limited should be made on behalf of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) under Portfolio Investment Scheme (PIS) through primary/secondary markets in India without obtaining the prior permission of the Reserve Bank. The Reserve Bank has stated that FII investments of this company has reached the 22 per cent of its paid up capital.Buy at the present rate of 21rs to mint huge sum of money.

2008-10-28T10:14:00.005+05:30

English Indian Clays Ltd:
The Co-generation Plant, Starts Operation and could further get huge benefits, under Clean Development Mechanism (CDM):
BSE Code: 526520
Face Value: Rs.10
EPS: Rs.41
Dividend: 70%
P/E: 6.61 (only)
Market Cap: Rs.122 (only)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Introduction: English Indian Clays Ltd (EICL) was incorporated on 18th November 1963, in technical and financial collaboration with English China Clays Limited, UK (now known as ECC Group plc, UK). The collaboration with ECC ceased in the year 1992. EICL has since been actively engaged in the manufacture and processing of China Clay of different grades for use as a coating agent and filling agent.
The Company has its clay manufacturing units at Veli, Thonnakkal and Kollam located in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala. The company's clay mining and refining operations center around Trivandrum where the processing plant produces several grades of refined Kaolin (China Clay - both Spray Dried and Rotary Dried), Metakaolin and Calcined Kaolin (clays) to cater to the Paper, Paint, Rubber, Plastic, Fiberglass, Cement and Ultramarine industries. The plant is the biggest in South East Asia.
EICL has been successful in maintaining strict quality control and consistent conformity to international standards. The company has been certified to ISO 9002:1994 since 1996 and has now been upgraded to ISO 9001 : 2000. EICL has a well-equipped R&D Center, which is recognized by the Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India.EICL R&D has set up Application Laboratories that focuses on specific industry requirements to develop suitable grade of products and provides application support to customers to achieve best results from its products.
As pigment and extender, China Clay it is used extensively in the paper and paints industry. As filler, it is used in the manufacture of plastics, detergents, rubber goods and paper; as raw material, it is used by glass and ceramic industries for making fiberglass and porcelain respectively. As additive, it is used by the soap industry and it is also used by the paper industry for specialty coating purposes as well in order to impart strength and shine and water repellent characteristics to the paper.
EICL has marketing offices in Mumbai and Delhi and has marketing agents in Mauritius, South Africa, GCC, Yemen, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Philippines, Jordan and New Zealand. This company is from the Brij Mohan Thapar Group.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters' holding is a massive at 79.91% while the public holding is only 20.89 %. Among the non-promoters, Lotus Global Investment Ltd alone holds 6.69% of the shares of the company. Hence, the number of shares available for trade in the market is very less. It is also due to this factor, that the scrip had given huge returns to the share holders, in the past.
Financials: The result of the company for the quarter ending September, 2008 is absolutely fantastic and has silenced many critics. The total sales of the company for Q2FY09 came out to be whopping Rs.81.74 Cr as against Rs.68.1 Cr in the same period previous year.
The net profit of the company for the quarter ending September, 2008, became almost double at Rs.8.53 Cr as against Rs.4.8 Cr in the same period previous year (Q2FY08). Hence there is a massive jump in both the top and bottomlines. The EPS of the company for the quarter ending September, 2008 came out to be Rs.10.13 as against Rs.8.62 in the same period previous year.
The operating profit margin of the company also improved to 20.09% in Q2FY09 as against 15.85% in the same period previous year. The net profit margin of the company in Q2FY09, has also shown marked improvement at 11.23% as against 7.07% in Q2FY08.
What is more interesting is that the EPS of the company is Rs.41.45. But what makes the scrip attractive at the CMP, is the low floating stock--this further gives premium value to the shares of the company.
Triggers:
1. English Indian Clays Ltd has entered into Agreements with Wolkem Clay Pvt. Ltd. (WCPL), Kollam and Wolkem Industries Ltd. (WIL), Udaipur towards purchase of the assets of WCPL & WIL.The purchase is expected to be advantageous to the existing activities of the Company.
2. English Indian Clays Ltd earlier informed that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on January 25, 2008, has approved an issue of 7,44,830 Equity Shares of Rs.10 each at a premium of Rs.990 pre share aggregating to Rs.74.48 Cr on right basis in the ratio of 1:6 i.e. 1 (one) new equity share of Rs.10 each for every 6 (six) existing equity shares held on the record date, to part finance the upcoming starch manufacturing project at Shimoga (Karnataka). Do u remember the episode of Radhe Developers Ltd's case in this respect. In a similar move the scrip of Radhe Developers Ltd, (Which I recommended at Rs.7.5 in 2005--06 and which raised lot of eye-brows in the media), became more than 15 times in matter of some months.
3. English Indian Clays Ltd has recommended a final dividend @ 70% on paid up equity share capital of Rs.4,46,89,790 amounting to Rs.3,12,82,853, 5% on 10% Cumulative Redeemable Preference Share capital of Rs.10,00,00,000 amounting to Rs.50,00,000 and 5.5% on 11% Cumulative Redeemable Preference Share Capital of Rs.20,00,00,000 amounting to Rs.1,10,00,000 respectively for the financial year ended March 31, 2008--this is also massive considering the dividend yield. During the year the Company had paid an interim dividend of 5% on 10% Cumulative Redeemable Preference Shares and 5.5% on 11% Cumulative Redeemable Preference Shares respectively.
4. It is an ISO 9001: 2000 Company. Moreover, the company has commissioned the Co-generation Power Plant at Yamuna Nagar and the operation has started from 1st September, 2008. Hence any generation of revenue from the saving of power and from Carbon Credits would be seen in the following quarters. This is a great development in the company as the company could apply to the world body for getting mammoth revenues in the form of Carbon Credits.
5. Over the last 12 years, EICL products have established themselves in the international market. With Hydrous and Calcined Clays of quality comparable with the best grades available in the world, EICL products offer distinct techno-commercial advantage in Africa, South East Asia, Far East and Middle-East markets due to its geographical location.Two major Indian ports of Cochin & Tuticorin are 200 kms from the works. Frequent connections to all the major ports in the world are available from these ports.
6. Strong R&D with well equipped Application Laboratories are there at all the three manufacturing locations i.e Thiruvananthapuram, Yamunanagar and Puducherry.The lab has Paper, Paint, Rubber, Cement and Ceramic industry specialists, supported by the most modern equipments, who constantly thrive for offering proactive solutions to the respective industries.
7. The Company's ability to sustain a steady and time bound supply schedule coupled with its constant striving for excellence has given it that extra edge over all its competitors in the field. With its rich reserves, hi-technology, vast experience of its motivated employees and deep commitment to quality, EICL is all set to take a place of pride the twenty first century as the preferred source for the best companies in the business.
Moreover, due to depreciation of value of INR against Dollar (USD), the company will be able to generated additional revenues.
Chartically Speaking, the stock is in the Highly Oversold Territory and a bounce could be expected anytime now, which could take the stock to around Rs.450---Rs.500 (or more) by January, 2009. The two chief Chartical Indicators, MACD and Bollinger Bands shows that the scrip is BUY MODE, at present. A cross over can take the stock to above Rs.700 in the next few months.
Buy the stock at the CMP of Rs.273.85 or when the market stabilizes for some decent appreciation in the days to come. The bear markets generally bounce back with vengence, especially when the market falls NOT due to Internal Fundamentals but due to some "Ripple Effect".
In the present circumstances, one can buy the stock above Rs.270 in any case.
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KEC International Ltd:
Weak Rupee to boost its income
CMP: Rs.240.05
BSE Code: 532714
EPS: Rs.34.93
Dividend: 50%
Market Cap: Rs.1184.52 Cr
Performance: Out-performer
Target: Rs.440--Rs.525
Introduction: KEC’s expertise lies in managing complete turnkey EPC contracts. It is a global leader in Power Transmission Engineering, Procurement and Construction, (EPC) business. KEC is the flagship company in the transmision sector of the Rs.11, 500 Cr RPG Group. RPG Enterprise has major presence in core sectors like Power, Tyres, Retail, Technology and Entertainment.
KEC International Ltd's forte lies in timely and cost effective execution of turnkey EPC contracts. It undertakes projects in transmission, distribution, rural electrification, substations and telecom infrastructure segments. From erecting India's first 800 KV Compact line to developing Canada's Tallest and heaviest transmission towers, KEC International Ltd has shown unparalled technical proficiency in delivering Best-in-Class Transmission Towers meeting the discerning demands of even advanced markets. Having successfully executed substation projects in Algeria, Oman, and in India, KEC International Ltd, has the envious distinction of being one-stop-shop offering a range of value added services and end to end solutions to the complex requirement of global clients.
The company’s business areas include:
1.Power transmission EPC
2.Rural electrification & distribution networks EPC
3.Sub-stations construction
4. Telecom infrastructure EPC
5. Railway projects
6. Design & tower testing services
KEC has tower manufacturing plants at Jaipur, Nagpur and Jabalpur. The company has access to manufacturing capacity of 180,000 mtpa. Of this, 110,000 mtpa is owned and the balance 70,000 mtpa is contracted. Company has tower testing stations at Jaipur, Jabalpur and Vashi with capability to test towers up to 1,000 Kv
KEC International Ltd (KEC), an RPG group company, is among the largest global power transmission EPC contractors. KEC derives about 66% of its revenues from international operations. Going forward, the company’s geographical mix will continue to be skewed towards international business.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 41.54% of the shares of the company while total public holding is 58.46%. According to the latest shraeholing pattern, among the non-promoters' holding Banks, Insurance Companies, Mutual Funds and FIIs hold 43.92% (42.90% in Q4FY08) shares of the company. What is interesting is that FIIs' holding has almost remained unchanged at 12.80% (12.89% in Q4FY08) in the last few quarters. This assumes significance when the many stocks are down due to heavy FII selling. Moreover, the general public holding is only 11.16% according to the latest shareholding pattern----this means only about 55 lakhs shares are in the hands of general public. This gives its shares a premium value over its peers.
Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd (5.70%), FID Funds Mauritius Ltd (3.95%), HSBC Global Investment Funds A/c HSBC Global (1.42%), HDFC Trustee Company Ltd HDFC Prudence Fund (1.82%), HDFC Trustee Company Ltd HDFC Infrastructure Fund (2.10%), Reliance Capital Trustee Company Ltd A/c (1.56%), DSP Merrill Lynch Trustee Company Pvt Ltd - A/c (1.22%), BSMA Ltd (1.26%), SBI Mutual Fund - Magnum Tax Gain (1.23%), India Fund Inc (1.03%) , Tata Trustee Company Pvt Ltd A/c Tata Mutual (1.18%), Master Trust bank of Japan Ltd A/c (1.05%) etc. holds substantial stakes in the company.
Financials: For FY08, the company came out with good set of numbers. The total income of the company for FY08 came out to be Rs.2814.73 Cr as against Rs.2093.9 Cr in the same period previous year. The operating profits of the company jumped to Rs.354.6 Cr as againts Rs.251.94 Cr in the same period previous year. The profit before tax (PBT) was almost double at Rs.261.85 Cr as against Rs.159.3 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company in FY08 came out to be whooping Rs.172.2 Cr as against Rs.104.63 Cr in the same period previous year. This gave an EPS of Rs.39.56 in FY08 as against Rs.27.76 in FY07.
For Q1FY09, the total income of the company came out to be Rs.600.2 Cr as against Rs.511.6 Cr in the same period previous year. The net profit of the company came out to be flat at Rs.25.5 Cr as against Rs.25.31 Cr in the same period previous year. However, the results for the quarter ended June 30, 2007 do not include the results of the erstwhile RPG Transmission Ltd and the erstwhile National Information Technologies Ltd, which merged with the Company with effect from October 01, 2007 and hence are not comparable with the results for the quarter ended June 30, 2008.
Triggers:
1. Strong revenue growth: In FY08, KEC International’s (KEC’s) stand alone topline grew by 27% YoY to Rs25 bn. This growth was supported by a strong order inflow and timely execution of orders in hand. KEC International Ltd is expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% FY08-10. The key drivers behind this expected robust growth are rising opportunities in international markets as well as fresh investments undertaken in the Indian power sector.
2. Interest cost to come down: KEC’s interest cost increased by a meagre 14% in FY08. This difference is due to the fact that KEC is less dependent on debt for funding its working capital requirements. Going ahead, any cut in rates will have a positive effect on the company's top and bottomlines.
3. Both domestic and international orders have their pros and cons. International orders are fixed cost-based, while domestic orders have a price variation clause (which will protect margins). International orders from new geographies could result in higher margin orders, which would not be possible in the highly competitive domestic market. Since KEC International Ltd derives more than 66% of their orders from international operations and hence the margin is good. KEC was formed with a focus on international opportunities in transmission EPC. The share of international revenues was as high as 88% till four years back. The company increased its focus on Indian operations post FY04, when the government investments in the power sector picked up.
4. KEC International Ltd has a global presence with clients in over 40 countries. It has a strong presence in India, Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.
Moreover, a Joint venture company named KEC Power India Private Limited with M/s. Power Holdings Inc., USA as a joint venture partner, has been incorporated in the state of Maharashtra in the month of March, 2008. This company would provide services like conceptualizing, designing, developing power transmission and distribution lines, sub-stations and all types of power generating projects.
5. KEC International Ltd merged group companies RPG Transmission (RPGT) and National Information Technologies Limited (NITEL) with itself in August 2007. RPGT was engaged in the business of EPC contracting in transmission, rural electrification and railway electrification, a business similar to that of KEC. NITEL was engaged in the business of setting up telecom infrastructure.. This will further strengthen the Company both top and bottomlines.
6. Since the steel and other metal prices are crashing in the international markets and this is going to give tremendous impetus to the balance sheet of KEC International Ltd, because the orders were obtained when the metal prices were at their peak. This is expected to give solid net profits going forward.
7. Besides the traditional markets of Middle East and Africa, the company is constantly on a hunt for further opportunities in Central Asia and North America. The company plans to enter new geographical locations and capture opportunities in the rural electrification and sub-station markets. There is a huge potential for telecom tower infrastructure business in India and the company plans to capture opportunities in this area.
8. The company has a healthy order book. During FY08, the company completed 21 projects in the South Asian markets and 15 projects in International markets. The company has performed well by bagging 26 orders in the South Asian markets from the State utilities and Power Grid Corporation of India Limited and 27 orders in International markets from various countries including Afghanistan, Algeria, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Oman, Namibia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and UAE. The company has successfully embarked upon the sub-station business by bagging sub-station packages in domestic markets and from Afghanistan and Kenya in the International markets.9.The company is also executing Railway Electrification projects and has begun participating in Railway Composite projects. The company is being viewed as a quality EPC Player for telecom towers by all the major telecom operators in India. With huge investments and numerous projects envisaged in the infrastructure sector, the company, with its experience and proven competency in project management and execution is well equipped to grow further.
As the countries of the world draw up mega railway expansion plans to drive their national growth, KEC International Ltd is geared up to take the responsibility of an all-inclusive holistic EPC player in the global railway industry. And with a strong presence in over 40 countries it is well positioned to grab the lion's share.
10. For the first time in the company history, the revenues crossed Rs.600 Cr in the first quarter of 2009 (Q1FY09), which is no mean achievement. Moreover, it has a huge order book of more than Rs.5000 Cr to be executed over the next 18 months time frame. This is a sharp increase from around Rs.3250 Cr in 2007.
11. Improved industry scenario: The Union government plans to provide Electricity to all by 2012. This will require an additional power generation capacity of 100,000 MW, translating into heavy investment in generation and transmission and distribution (T&D). Power Grid Corporation of India plans to invest Rs 70,000 crore to develop and strengthen the National Grid. Projects worth over Rs 17,000 crore have been approved under the Accelerated Power Development and Reforms Programme (APDRP). Further, a rural electrification scheme – Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikiran – involving an expenditure of Rs 16,000 crore has been unveiled. Besides, the Government has also proposed to set up a National Fund for Transmission and Distribution reform with a corpus of Rs. 1,00,000 crores.These aggressive investment plans is expected to benefit transmission companies including KEC International Ltd.
12. Emergence of a pure power player: Under a restructuring scheme that became effective in Dec 2005, investors of the erstwhile KEC International were allotted a share each in the two companies — KEC International and KEC Infrastructure — for every share they had held earlier. KEC International will carry on the core business of power transmission and distribution, while KEC Infrastructure would hold investments in group companies and non-core advances divested from the parent company. From the investor’s perspective, this move has unlocked value. The restructuring has brought in a pure player in the turnkey power solutions business under KEC International. The technical qualification and experience of the parent company in the power business has remained intact. This is resulting into significant improvement in the return ratios.
13. De-risked business model : KEC International Ltd had traditionally derived a majority of its revenues from exports. Till FY03, only 10% of KEC’s orders were from the domestic market. The company made a loss in FY02 and has since de-risked its revenue model. It now derives about 30% of its revenues from the domestic market. It expects a 70:30 revenue mix (International: Domestic), which is also reflected in its current order book. It has been able to capitalise on the power reforms in the country and has bagged contracts from Power Grid Corporation and orders for rural electrification programmes.
14. Move towards becoming a service provider: The company is also striving to move up the value chain through services such as satellite surveys and tower testing. It has received approval for a 100 % EOU Tower Testing facility and also extensively outsourced a large part of non-critical work. Outsourcing allows KEC to grow its business at a much faster rate and not get constrained by transmission tower production capacity.
15. North American JV to boost top line: In May 2006, KEC formed a 50:50 joint venture with Power Engineers Inc, USA, called KEC Power Inc. The JV bids for high-value projects in the US and North America. Apart from increasing its international presence, the move is helping KEC boost top line growth through new international orders.
Key Concerns:
1.Rise in prices of key inputs such as steel, cement and aluminum is the key concern for KEC. Costs of steel and aluminum account for about 16% and 9% of revenues respectively for the company. However, a sharp fall in the Steel and metals prices in the domestic and international markets is acting as a positive trigger for the company. Moreover most of the earlier oreders were plance when steel prices were higher 70% yoy.
2. Delays in government spending, as has been the experience in India in the past. Any Slowdown in infrastructure spending in Middle East, Africa and other regions where company derives a sizeable amount of its revenues could adversly affect its profitability.
3. In spite of de-risking the business model, the company’s export-centric revenue carries foreign exchange-related risks. Fluctuations in the currency cannot be anticipated at the tendering stage and hence the currency risk in each contract continues for considerable period. The risk is mitigated to some extent by limited hedging resorted by the company. However, at present the depreciation INR is acting as a boon for the company.
Conclusion: KEC International is well-positioned to leverage on the hig -growth domestic T&D market as well as take advantage of the huge investments in the Middle East and Africa.
As mentioned earlier, a couple of years back KEC International, which had the power business, was split into two entities, KEC Infrastructure and KEC International. KEC Infrastructure holds equity in Ceat, CESC, Harrisons Malyalam, RPG Life Science ( KEC Infrastructure, is the holding company), Philips Carbon Black etc. KEC Infrastructure thus holds investments in group companies and non-core advances divested from the parent company.
Considering the factors mentioned above it has been found that the shares of KEC International Ltd are highly undervalued and will soon go for re-rating. The stock is in oversold territory and other chartical patterns are in buy mode.
The stock could be bought at the CMP of Rs.240.05 with an immediate price target of Rs.440--Rs.525, in the next 3 to 4 months time frame. The stock is multi-bagger and will cross Rs.1000 in the next 18 months time frame. Please keep a SL of Rs.225 for any very short term trade.
Posted by SumanSpeaks

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Development Credit Bank Ltd:
Banking on SBI, HDFC Ltd and Tata Capital Ltd
BSE Code: 532772
CMP: Rs.29.75
Book Value: Rs.36.39
Market Cap: Rs.518.54
Target: Rs.55--Rs.65 in 3 to 4 months time frame
Stop Loss: Rs.22
Performance: Market Outperformer
Introduction: Development Credit Bank (DCB) is one of the emerging private sector banks in India and provides to its customers, access to over 30,000 ATMs and more than 80 state-of-the-art branches spread over ten states and two union territories. It has sought permission from the central bank to open 50 more branches. Earlier, the bank had announced plans to raise Rs.3--4 billion during the current fiscal to fund its growth plans for the next 18 months.
The wheels of change has made a positive difference and DCB is making its presence felt. The Bank has recently launched several value added initiatives and intends to become one of the country’s preferred and profitable private sector banks, providing a comprehensive suite of “best in class” products for specific market segments in chosen geographies. DCB has initiated a liability and select asset product led strategy, through a mix of owned and outsourced products and multi-channel capabilities.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters' holding is 26.51% while among the non-promoters' holding, institutional investors hold 17.55% and the general public holds 28.25%. Among the institutional holding FIIs holding has decreased from 30.03% in Q4FY08 to mere 12.84% in Q1FY09, which is a positive sign (or we can see there are further scope of FIIs cornering the stock in future). Moreover the holding of Private Corporate Bodies has gradually increased from 10.14% in Q4FY08 to 15.49% in Q1FY09---this is a great news as far as this aggressive private sector bank is concerned.
Also, while the promoters holding has remained constant in the last few quarters, the holding of Mutual Funds/Banks/LIC/Financial Institutions, have almost doubled in the last few quarters, adding to already present positive developments. Besides this, State Bank of India, Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd Tata Capital Ltd holds substantial stake in the company. There were rumours some months back that the bank could be taken over by any other these three entities.
Financials: For FY08, the results were simply excellent even when the interest rates peaked out and CRR rate was hiked a number of times. For FY08, the total income of the company came out to be Rs.736.7 Cr as against Rs.439.42 Cr in the same period previous year (almost doubled). Net profit of the company jumped to Rs.38.3 Cr in FY08 as against Rs.7.4 Cr in the same period previous year. The capital adequacy ratio also improved in FY08 to 13.38% as against 11.34% in FY07. Due to lot of initiatives taken during the whole fiscal of FY08, the net profit margin shot up to 6.68% as against 2.12% in the same period previous year.
In Q1FY09, the total income of the company came out to be Rs.204.2 Cr as against Rs.148.1 in the same period previous year. The profit before tax (PBT) of the company for Q1FY09, is a whooping Rs.25.1 Cr as against Rs.8.3 Cr in the same period previous year. However, the net profit for Q1FY09 came out to be Rs.5.4 Cr as against Rs.5.74 Cr in the same period previous year, due to higher (almost 6 times jump) provisioning for Contingencies. Capital Adequacy Ratio also increased considerably 13.67% in Q1FY09 as against 10.475 in the same period previous year. Thus the company is doing excellently well in the financial front.
Triggers:
1. It has a network of 80 state-of-the-art branches and extension counters spread across the states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, New Delhi, Rajasthan, Goa, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, West Bengal, Union Territories of Daman & Diu and Dadra & Nagar Haveli. It has a dedicated staff of over 1800.
2. Built on over 77 years of trust, tradition and togetherness, DCB was converted into a Scheduled Commercial Bank on May 31,1995, in the wake of India’s economic liberalisation. It was the only co-operative bank, which successfully crossed over and thrived in the face of change. The company has travelled a long route and made its presence felt in the domestic money market.
3. DCB Ltd is not just a Bank but is a Financial Supermarket. DCB Ltd offers an extensive range of products across its branches. Suitable variants of the basic products like savings and current accounts as well as innovative products such as the ‘DCB Trio’ and ‘Easy Business,’ keep DCB ahead of the pack. Demat Account and a range of investment products like mutual funds, insurance and bonds make the product offering complete.
4. Since its inception, DCB has always taken an active interest in developing low-cost customer deposit products and providing for the needs of small and medium businesses in select regions. It continues to fulfil every consumer need with great enthusiasm. The Bank is also suitably equipped with the latest versions of Finacle from Infosys and Oracle to provide seamless service to its customers.
5. Very recently this Mumbai-based Development bank, reduced its exposure to unsecured personal loans in a bid to maintain its net interest margins. According to a top source, to maintain net interest margins the bank has brought down its exposure to personal loans from 17 percent last fiscal which will be reduced to around to 12-13 percent probably by the middle of the next financial year.
The bank expects to see a growth rate of 30 percent in advances and a 35-40 percent growth in deposits in the current fiscal. The banks' net interest margin in 2007-08 was 2.9 percent and would be in the range of 2.9-3.1 percent in the current fiscal. The bank would raise the share of low-cost deposits to about 29-30 percent of its total deposits from its current share of 27 percent.
6. It was wonderful to see how the company improved post IPO. From only a profit of around Rs.66.3 lakhs in Q2FY07, the net profit has jumped to Rs.5.4 Cr in June, 2008 quarter---an almost 8 (eight) fold increase in matter of 2 (two) years. This attests to my arguments that this agresssive bank is moving at a rapid pace and therefore it was once the darling of FIIs. Now the institutions have made its their destination to lap up the shares of this company at brisk pace.
7. Now with RBI cutting the CRR by 150 basis points and further cut expected within some days, some more liquidity will be generated in system. This measure will release more funds of the banks for lending, which were locked-up in the coffers of RBI for a long period. Hence in future we could see massive jump in both the top and bottomlines of most of the banks (Private and PSU). Meanwhile there are also talks of cutting interest rates by the RBI. This is expected to suddenly give a great boost to the loan growth apart from generating a sizable treasury income for the banks in future.
8. The Bank has an active and robust treasury, managing its interest rate risks and liquidity by providing an uninterrupted flow of funds, positioning the Bank for future growth.Over the last few months DCB aggressively expanded the product portfolio in response to customer needs and feedback. Products such as DCB Privilege Banking for Savings and Current Accounts, DCB Smart Trade, DCB Advantage Credit Card, and DCB Trio account, have been very popular with customers. Customers also enjoy a host of benefits such as an international debit card, DCB Customer Care phone banking, and internet banking.
9. The company is planning to get into asset management business and with a partner but till now had to shelve the idea because of bad market conditions. Development Credit Bank will enter this space as soon as the market condition improves a bit. The bank plans to raise funds in the near future but the amount will depend on the market conditions.
Conclusion: Considering all the factors mentioned above, it will be prudent to buy DCB Ltd at the CMP of Rs.29.75 for a target of Rs.55--Rs.65 in the next 3 -4 months time frame. Please put a SL of Rs.22 for any short term trade. This aggressive bank is going to surprise most shareholders in terms of growth and creating value for the shareholders.
Posted by SumanSpeaks

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Premier Explosives Ltd :
BSE Code:526247CMP: Rs.32.5EPS: Rs.5.75Dividend: 15%Market Cap: Rs.26.41 CrPerformance: Market PerformerTarget: Rs.75--Rs.80 in 6 months time frame
Introduction: Premier Explosives Limited (PEL) is a Rs. 700 million plus company and is one of the major manufacturers of the entire range of Explosives and Accessories in India. PEL was established in 1980 and is the first manufacturer in India to deploy totally indigenous technology. PEL today has the widest range of products and technologies in the manufacture of Explosives & Accessories. These include Emulsion and Slurry explosives, LD cartridge explosives, Bulk Explosives, Small-dia non-permitted explosives, Permitted explosives, Cast Boosters, Pillow-packs for secondary blasting; Detonating Fuse of various core-loads, Plain detonators, Instantaneous Electric Detonators, Electric Delay Detonators, Permitted Detonators, Cord Relays and Amardet NoN Electirc Shock-tube Detonators.
PEL has constantly innovated and upgraded its products and technology to offer “state-of-the-art” products to its valued customers both in India and abroad. Commitment to quality, Safety, Health & Environment are the way of life at PEL.PEL’s R &D facility is recognized by the Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Government of India, as an established research centre. It is also recognized as a research base for Ph.D. work by the Osmania University, Andhra Pradesh.
A wide distribution network comprising of magazines Consignment Agents, Dealers and Handling Agents, located across the country, ensure ready stock and prompt delivery to customers even in remote locations.Shareholding Pattern: The Promoters' holding is 35.42% while the general public holds 64.58%. Among the public an individual in the name of Mr.Atim Kabra have around 6.16% shares of the company. This gentleman has constantly increased stake in the company in the last few months.Financials: For Q3FY08, the results were quite impressive considering that there were NO Revenues coming from the Mushroom Division. Mushroom Division was sold last year for a considerable sum which were used to clear off some old debts.For Q3FY08, the total income of the company was Rs.15.40 Cr as against Rs.16.6 Cr. The Net profits of the company for Q3FY08, without the inputs from the mushroom division is also impressive at Rs.77.3 lakhs against Rs.79.4 laksh in Q3FY07. The EPS of the company for the the 9 (nine) months ending 31st December, 2008 is Rs.5.67 which gives a natural target of Rs.75--Rs.80 on the scrip. The total EPS of the company for FY08 would be around Rs.7-Rs.8, which is quite high if we consider its nearest peer Solar Explosives Ltd.Triggers:1. It has reduced its debt burden with the money from the selling of the Mushroom division last year. The company striving to achieve a zero debt company in the near future.2. Special Product Division dedicated for defence sector for production of Solid Propellants was completed during the year and was commissioned on 16th September, 2006. The Company is now mainly focussed on the Lucrative Defence Sector.3. The Company has established two Joint Ventures (JV) abroad for manufacture of explosives and accessories. At one JV the production has commenced in April 2007. The second JV commenced production during July / August 2007. Both JVs making good good contribution during this financial year, FY08.3. The Comapny earlier signed a 10 years (renewable for another 10 years) prestigious contract with Satish Dhawan Space Centre, SHAR, Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). The contract is for operation and maintenance of Second Propellant Plant at an annual value of about Rs. 70 million with price escalation on annual basis. The total value of contract would be around Rs. 700 millions. The operations have commenced from 18th January, 2007.4. In the last fiscal the Premier Explosives Ltd got the following awards:a) The Company has been awarded Appreciation Certificate by Andhra Pradesh Pollution Control Board in the category of Best Greenbelt Industries.b) It has also received award of achieving highest rating in the ranking of India's Top 500Manufacturing Small and Mid Sized companies during August, 2006.c) Naval Science & Technological Laboratory, D.R.D.O., Visakhapatnam, has presented Appreciation Award to the Company in recognition of its valuable contribution to them in the development of various specialized products.d) Premier Explosives Ltd has also received Certificate of Appreciation by Rotary Club in appreciation of company's service and support for Drinking Water Project and organization of medical camps in remote villages around twin cities.5. The Indian explosive industry is one of the few highly developed ones in the world. The total consumption of explosives in India is amongst the first five in the world.The total market had been increasing steadily due to infrastructure development and more demand of key minerals and power. This increases the chance of this well established player to improve both on the top and the bottomlines. The company is moving at a rapid pace.6. Explosives production in some of the countries had been monopolised by global giants like Orica, Dyno, UEE etc. This Company has established two joint ventures abroad to take advantage of better margins. Production has already commenced in one Joint Venture from 17th April, 2007. The production at second Joint Venture is has started during July, 200. Major contribution is coming from special products division, overseas ventures and operations and maintenance contracts during the financial year 2007-08. So there are multiple revenue streams of the company. Hence the scrip is expected to cross Rs.100 this time.7. The company, one of the three in the country manufacturing the entire range of explosives and accessories for the civil/industrial requirement, is poised to become a defence/strategic industry supplier through capacity expansion, including missile fuel. Premier Explosives, which already produces the fuel, would double its capacity in about 12 months time frame. For the new project, it has already bought 150 acres of land off Hyderabad, near its existing plant, The complete capex plan is almost ready.8. Q3FY08 results were good considering that there was not income from the Mushroom Division in view of it being sold in the last Fiscal. Both the toplines and the bottomlines were flat, speaking Q-o-Q. This a GREAT ACHIEVEMENT as this was achieved only from the income from its core divisions, i.e. manufacture of explosives. The net profits margins have also increased marginally. This is going to improve going forward as the incomes from the overseas subsidiaries adds up to the total income of the company.
Conclusion: Considering the above mentioned factors it has been found that the stock is trading cheap as compared to its peers. This is is one of the most inflation Neutral sector as the Company gets substantial orders from Defence Departments, where the demand is inelastic. The fact that the Company's revenues have started to come from overseas subsidiaries is a good point as compared to its peer Solar Explosives. In the daily Charts also the scrip looks good for investment. Buy with a Price Target of Rs.75--Rs.80 in the short to medium terms perspective.
Posted by SumanSpeaks

INcome Tax Table.....

2008-10-28T09:56:00.003+05:30

Container Corporation (CONCOR) is Good Bet !!!

2008-10-18T21:13:00.004+05:30

The Q2FY09 results of Container Corporation (CONCOR) are inline with our estimates. Net Sales for Q2FY09 was at Rs9 billion up 9.8% on y-o-y basis due to 12.9% growth in EXIM business.
The growth was also aided by increase in the haulage charges by 5% to 16% as per various categories from 1st August 2008. However, the domestic business recorded de-growth of 2.6% on y-o-y basis.
For Q2FY09 on EXIM segment reported volume growth of 3.1% while domestic business reported de-growth of 8.8%. This is due to the fact that it lost some domestic business on account of banning exports of rice, maize and sugar by the government.
EBIDTA margin during Q2FY09 was up by 400 bps to 29.8% on y-o-y basis due to significant reduction in rail freight expenses as a percentage of revenues from 60.1% in Q2FY08 to 55.2% in Q2FY09.
This was sue to the fact that in the previous quarter the company has increased its terminal handling charges and passed on the cost increases of land lease charges. Also the company had introduced various cost cutting measures like using own equipments and reduction in running empty containers.
PAT for Q2FY09 was at Rs2.2 billion up 28.5% on y-o-y basis and up 10.8% on sequential basis thereby translating into quarterly EPS of Rs17.2 and quarterly CEPS of Rs19.3.
Despite the current slowdown, the company is looking to invest Rs50 billion over next five years to create assets in the logistics business.
Expansion plans
The company is debt free and has cash of Rs17.4 billion on its books and thus is going ahead with its expansion plans. It has already ordered 1300 high-speed wagons and is in process of ordering another 1,500 wagons.
This year it has already acquired 12 rakes and would acquire another 12 rakes by March 2009. It would spend Rs3 billion for wagon acquisition. It has also approved purchase of equipments like reach stackers and is likely to spend Rs500 million and is also building three new terminals at cost of Rs1 billion.
We maintain our earning estimates and expect CONCOR to report EPS of Rs70.1 for FY09E. At Rs715, the stock trades at 2.4x book value, 10.2x earnings and 9x cash earnings based on FY09E.
The stock continues to remain our favored pick in the logistics sector as we feel that the valuations are attractive as CONCOR has tremendous advantage in terms of scale of operations for transportation of containers through railways.
One should remain positive and BUY CONCOR at every decline in small Qty. with price target of Rs.1,100 which provides upside potential of 54% from the current levels

The story of Nirmal Kotecha

2008-10-17T19:11:00.004+05:30

A real winner in day trading:- From a teenaged investor drawn to the `exciting' markets, Nirmal Kotecha has grown into an astute day trader with a nose for booking profits.If one needs a face to illustrate the present bull market phase of Indian equity, and depict the transition from long-term passive investors to agile, nimble footed, smart traders, Mumbai-based Nirmal Kotecha of Nirmal Investments would fit the bill. It is without batting an eyelid that he says: "The sky is the limit" to your query on the annual returns that equity investors can expect. He quantifies it by adding, "Hundred per cent." When you ask if that is achievable he says, "Yes, I`ve done it."He's a trader who doesn't believe in taking delivery for the long term. But he does feel that at this point investors and traders have to be careful; "you have to be on your toes and watch the market moves because you never know what might happen... like the London bomb blasts. But then these are not events that you can anticipate or control." So on such occasions would he close his positions?"Yes, if they are trading positions. But if it is an investment then you have to see if the event will have a long-term repercussion on India. For instance, something going wrong with India's software sector would have a much greater consequence for India and Indian equity than 9/11."Kotecha, who is 31, started investing 15 years ago as a 16-year-old student when his father, an LIC agent, also ran a medical shop in Kochi. "In 1993, during the Harshad Mehta time and after the scam, a lot of young people would get together near our medical shop and talk about the stock market. There were heated debates on various stocks and how he had used these stocks and I found this talk quite exciting."With interest in equity kindled, the young lad started applying for IPOs. "They would come at Rs 10 and open at Rs 14 or 15." Slowly he started visiting the Kochi Stock Exchange and then the trading floor and became a sub-broker at 18, while he was doing his B.Com. Kotecha never felt like taking up a job or any other vocation "because I strongly felt that since I had passion for stocks this should be my profession... basically I had a trading mindset." He recalls that in those days there was craze for finance and gems and jewellery companies, and 100 per cent EOUs (export oriented units). "But since I had jumped into this profession without adequate training or hard work, like any ordinary person I too ended up losing in a bad way." With debts mounting to a couple of lakh rupees — big money for a teenager in those days — "I lost my confidence and thought this is absolutely the wrong career choice for me and I'd have to look for some other profession."His brush with equity would have ended but for his dad making it clear that since it was his money that the son had lost, he wouldn't part with more to settle his debt. "He said you're on your own; I had money of friends and relatives that I had to return and ended up borrowing a small sum at even 4 per cent monthly interest. It was a desperate situation and I had to come out of it." So the sub-broker's business could not be wound up and slowly he started understanding the market dynamics. "The advantage of a young age is that not only can you handle tension better but you also learn quickly and adapt more easily."But his age was a handicap when it came to advising clients on their investments. "Even though I worked hard and acquired information on companies and the stock market by reading newspapers and books, particularly on successful investors and traders in the US, and did my own analysis, I'd tell them I've heard this or that about a particular stock, and they'd buy those stocks. They thought I was too young to be taken seriously." He too started investing; the first challenge was to build up a capital after paying his debts. But the astute youngster did that by "quietly listening to market signals during the 2000 technology boom. It was then that I had my first real experience with momentum trading," he says. Technology stocks — particularly the K-10 stocks — provided him an opportunity. "In those stocks the volumes and price action used to be phenomenal; I've seen Himachal Futuristic going from Rs 30 to Rs 2,500, and have traded in and out of it maybe a million times."He moved between Infosys, Satyam, Rolta, Silverline and other technology stocks with the agility of an expert "several times a day through the week." He makes quite a startling, and yet relevant statement, when he says, "Like alcoholics need an Alcoholics Anonymous... traders too get a high while trading. And when you keep trading all the time it gets into your blood, like alcohol addiction. Just as an alcoholic drinks every day, I trade every day." Earlier when he went for a holiday with his wife, he would promise her he wouldn't make any calls about the markets. "But when I received calls, I would try to find out what's happening!" Now of course the Net allows him to do that from his laptop and his wife no longer minds this intrusion. Kotecha explains how momentum trading is governed by volume and price action and is "not confined to one stock but goes across the board. In those days 100 or 200 IT scrips were listed, and new ones were coming in. The top 50 would be up by a certain percentage so you gauged the momentum and went along with the flow." Sometimes he tried to go against the "the current and burnt my fingers, but it helped me learn. As Himachal went up from Rs 30 to 650 and 1,300, I kept trading in it. Weekly settlements helped too." Over the years this trader became so successful that for the last 6 years he has no clients and trades on his own, and says with a grin, "Markets are kind to me these days." In his trading life, Kotecha has identified some multibaggers too and though he doesn't believe in holding on to shares for long term, "if I'm convinced a share is a multibagger, I hold on. Take Praj Industries; I bought it at Rs 18 initially and it check where it is today. Of course I sold at Rs 40, bought it at 110 and sold again at Rs 140 and so on. The same with HDFC Bank which I had been allotted in the IPO, as also Aptech." On the overall equity outlook he says: "It looks really good; India has never had this good a time on the economic front and we're headed for better times and the macro developments will be reflected in the stock market." He rules out a scam "because today safeguards are in place and with the kind of funds coming in now, one player can't have an impact beyond a level because the market depth has increased. Also, both SEBI and the exchanges are watching." But he is worried at the number of retired people playing the markets these days. "This is the worst place for them. I would discourage it because if I lose all my money today, I have the chance to make up somewhere else. But if they lose their lifetime's savings it would be the biggest blow. I say this because I know money can evaporate in the market and despite my success I know that I keep making mistakes regularly!" But against huge success, he has also seen times when "the market crashes and if it loses 10 or 15 per cent and you've lost only 5 per cent you are happy; so everything is relative."These guy is worth between 600-1500 Crs provided what estimate you beleive.

source : arun the stock Guru

The slowdown-proof stocks..........

2008-10-17T06:20:00.003+05:30

October 16, 2008
It has been a turbulent year for the Indian stock markets—the Sensex is down more than 50 per cent (on Oct. 10 ’08) from its peak of 21,206.77 on Jan. 10, ’08. Big bank failures have spooked the stock markets globally. Now a credit crunch threatens to derail the global economy and plunge it into a recession. India, though somewhat insulated, may see its growth rate taper to around 7 per cent in 2008-09.The earnings growth of many companies may suffer in the current slowdown, and their stock prices, already down, will almost certainly fall further. Hence, investors must pick investments that will be least affected by the slowdown. This is a good time to enter the market for the long term, though in the short- to mediumterm, there could be further damage. Says Apurva Shah, Head-Research, Prabhudas Lilladher: “Speculators and traders can lose their shirt in this market. The approach should be to invest in fundamentally sound companies with a two- to three-year horizon.” We spoke to a cross-section of market analysts to identify nine stocks that are relatively insulated in this age of turbulence and those that make good long-term bets. This is what they suggested.

Aban offshore :

Aban Offshore provides drilling and services for production of hydrocarbons and offshore exploration to the oil industry in India and abroad. The company has 20 offshore assets, which in-clude 15 jack-up drilling rigs and two drill ships. Says Ajay Parmar, Head, Institutional Research, Emkay Global Financial Services: “Most oil companies are deploying their huge cash reserves in exploration and drilling activities. This has led to increased demand for offshore oil drilling rigs and this should directly benefit companies like Aban.” Aban Offshore has been delivering sound earnings numbers. In the first quarter of 2008-09, its net profit increased 152 per cent while revenues were up 94 per cent. This was largely due to higher prices for four of its assets. The stock has taken a huge beating in the downturn, but it’s a cash-generating business and the expected future cash flow should provide investors enough comfort.

Axis bank :

Among private banks, Axis Bank is well placed to ride out the current financial storm. The management has already said that in spite of the unfavourable macro-environment, the bank will deliver 40 per cent-plus growth in advances this financial year. For the first quarter of 2008-09, Axis Bank delivered over 80 per cent Y-O-Y growth in net interest income and net profit, driven by strong growth in all its core earnings streams. The bank’s capital adequacy ratio is at a comfortable 13.3 per cent. Its expansion plans are on course. In the first quarter, it opened 42 branches and extension counters and 140 ATMs. Says Hitesh Agrawal, Head, Research, Angel Broking: “Axis Bank is a good bet on account of its good management, attractive CASA deposit franchise, relatively low-risk lending franchise and multiple sources of sustainable fee incomes.”
Bharti Airtel : As the Indian mobile telephony story has played out, Bharti Airtel has consolidated its position as the market leader with a 25 per cent market share. At the end of 2007-08, the company had 35 per cent more subscribers than its next best competitor, Reliance Communications. The company has also grown its other businesses of fixed line, telemedia, enterprise solutions and long distance telephony. Meanwhile, Bharti has spun off its passive telecom infrastructure assets into Bharti Infratel, which has potential for growth. Says Agrawal: “Bharti Airtel continues to impress and outperform the mobile telephone sector with its performance on the subscriber additions front.” Telecom will be one sector that will be least affected by the slowdown. This company has a strong earnings visibility over the next few years.

BHEL : This Navratna company caters to the core sector of power generation & transmission. It is scaling up operations and gearing up to meet the power generation targets of the 12th Five Year Plan. It is expanding its capacity to 15,000 MW per annum in the next two years at a total investment of Rs 3,200 crore. The company has declared robust numbers recently with revenues and profit growing by more than 30 per cent in the first quarter of 2008-09. More comforting is its huge order book position of Rs 95,000 crore. Says Parmar: “BHEL is taking steps in right direction to address supercritical orders and is increasing its pace of execution while also expanding capacities.”
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How to navigate markets nowDon’t dump stocks nowUnless you are hard-pressed for cash, this is not the time to dump stocksStagger buyingA bear market allows you sufficient time to make your equity purchases. Stagger your investments over the next few months and bring your average purchase price down if prices dip furtherStay with domestic companiesLook at companies whose domestic growth is intact. In these times of a global recession, companies dependent on global economy will find the going toughBe a contrarionBuy battered stocks. Sure, it’s difficult to do so, but some of the savviest investors have jumped in when the chips are down. Accumulating for the long term is best done now.

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GAIL India : Over the coming years, as more gas is discovered in India, it will require storage and transportation. One company well placed to tap this booming sector is GAIL India. It already has a sizeable presence in gas transportation and now has lined up a capex plan of approximately Rs 28,000 crore over five years. This will increase its transmission capacity from 150 MMSCMD to 346 MMSCMD. GAIL India has identified cities where it will extend its gas distribution business, and this will complement its existing business. Says Ashok Jainani, Head-Research, Khandwala Securities: “The unlocking of the city gas distribution and exploration business will be a major growth driver for GAIL India.” It recorded a turnover of Rs 18,008 crore in 2007-08, and is now targeting revenues of Rs 50,000 crore by 2011-12, a growth rate of 30 per cent. GAIL India is among the best defensive stocks in the market. Godrej Consumer Products Godrej Consumer is one of the fastest growing FMCG companies in India. It operates in two key business segments—soaps and personal care. It is the market leader in the hair colour and liquid detergents category and the second-biggest company in the soaps business. Its strong portfolio of brands includes Cinthol and Godrej powder hair dye. In the first quarter of 2008-09, a steep increase in the prices of palm oil subdued its profit. Analysts expect the company’s earnings to grow at a CAGR of over 20 per cent over the next two years on the back of robust revenue growth. Says Agrawal: “Raw material cost pressures are expected to be offset by price hikes, better product mix and cooling palm oil prices.”Hero HondaIt is the world’s largest two-wheeler company. Hero Honda has consistently grown at double digits and today every second motorcycle sold in the country is a Hero Honda. It has posted healthy results due to improving product mix. From being a leader in entry-level and entrypremium bikes, Hero Honda is now focussing on selling executive and premium brands like CBZ Xtreme, Hunk and Karizma. Says Parmar: “Better product mix, along with price hikes, have helped the company beat the industry downturn.”

Hindustan Unilever : This FMCG giant and leader in the home & personal care and foods & beverages segments with over 20 distinct categories is well-entrenched in its core business. Says Jainani: “HUL’s strengths are its strong brands and vast distribution network, which will keep it relatively insulated from a global economic slowdown.” In the first quarter of 2008-09, net sales surged 21 per cent while profits grew 18 per cent. Analysts expect the company to sustain the momentum riding on the back of India’s consumption story. Despite the sell-off in stocks, HUL has bucked the momentum, gaining 18 per cent over the last three months.

Reliance Communications :

Reliance Communications (RCOMM) is India’s second-largest private integrated telecom company and has established itself in key segments such as mobile and broadband. RCOMM is well-poised to further build on the Indian telecom growth story through full-fledged rollout of its GSM-based cellular services. It is also expanding its enterprise business, which is a potentially $275 billion (Rs 13. 2 lakh crore) opportunity globally. Says Agrawal: “The company continues to witness strong growth in its wireless business segment, aided by the rapid rollout of its network in the rural areas.” RCOMM is also set to unlock value through listing of its tower business when the market turns. The stock has dipped significantly in recent months, making it an attractive buy

2008-10-16T20:02:00.002+05:30

The markets should not go below 9960--9965 on closing basis .The markets generally bottom out at 10x Forward Earnings of any Financial Year (Unless there is severe recession as happened in early 20th century). Hence we are either near the bottom or may be we have formed the bottom (If we consider bloomberg's earning estimates for this quarter). Till now most of the Indian Companies performed better than the pessimistic estimates given by this foreign agency (how many foreign agencies will like India to grow and outshine the rest of the world..???!! Simple and straightforward argument.....).

The total amount of money in a system cannot vanish suddenly and this is absurd. But then there could be less leveraged money in the system. However some money could now shift to emerging economies like India (which are on strong growth trajectories), which benefits immensely if the commodity prices comes down.
Moreover, to save the farmer, Indian Government could soon lift the ban on Futures Trading on some (banned) commodities increasing their price and saving the Indian farmers from a complete washout.
Reliance Industries Ltd as mentioned could benefit from the fall in the Crude Oil prices (though marginally) from their Oil Marketing Venture. Since the crude oil prices are coming down most of the OMCs could now think of becoming profitable in the near future unless the government tampers with the price of crude oil derivatives again before the elections. In a similar manner, BPCL, HPCL, Essar Oil, etc could be benefited.
The funds from Arabs could now flow to India as the Crude Oil prices are crashing. The Arab economies will crash as the Crude Oil prices are now near their production cost which is around$65--$70 per barrel. Hence, it will be almost absurd to think that the Crude Oil will fall below $65 per barrel. In that case we can say that Reliance Industries Ltd has hit the bottom or is near the bottom.

Fall in the metal prices is helping tyre, construction, automobile, plastic and other such industries. Hence the Construction companies who have fixed their contracts at higher prices during the last few years will be greatly benefited and their gains will be massive. This is especially true for EPC/BOP projects where generally the margins are generally low.
On what basis can any one say that the market can go down based only on the charts!!! Charts will only give supports, resistances, retracement levels, etc......or give the general behavioural pattern of investors/traders, which may come out to be true or may not be. Hence, it is based on some statistics--- however, charts gives some idea regrading the investing pattern of people and should be consulted for short term investing.

BSNL offers discount on broadband subscription

2008-10-15T20:19:00.004+05:30

Keeping the festive season in mind, State-run telecom operator BSNL on Wednesday announced a 20 per cent discount on rent for its new broadband customers for a period of six months starting from October.
The offer is applicable on all broadband plans for new broadband customers, the company said in a statement.
The offer is also valid for all customers who have booked their subscriptions since October 1, the statement added.
The company offers broadband and Internet services besides telecom services in the country and has more than 2.7 million broadband users at present.

Blood bath is waiting for us .....

2008-10-15T19:43:00.002+05:30

It is fact that things which we see are actually not there and not which we are seeing !!!!!
- means the rally which we have seen since last 2-3 days was illusion of bull face / bottom of bear phase... Still blood bath is to see by us... be brave yaaaaaaaaar. Yeh share bazar hai hi aeisha.....

Micro Technologies launches Micro Wi-Fi security system !!

2008-10-13T20:28:00.001+05:30

Micro Technologies launches Micro Wi-Fi security system
To keep fast pace with technology utilization for the masses
MICRO TECHNOLOGIES INDIA LTD. has announced that the Company has come up Micro Wi-Fi Security System (WSS). Wi'Fi works on the radio frequency (RF) technology between sender and receiver using a WLAN (Wireless Local Area Network) to keep fast pace with technology utilization for the masses.
Wi-Fi has become widespread in corporate infrastructures; therefore the security related issues has also increased to drastic level. Some evil mindsets misuse the technological advancement with criminal intentions.
Wi-Fi network is not always safe, hackers and computer experts hack personal accounts with criminal intentions. Many recent threat mails from the terrorist group have been executed by hacking open Wi-Fi Networks. Micro WSS is a unique solution offered keeping in view the depth of the involvement of the computer and wireless internet facilities in exploring new avenues of crime and its inference. Micro WSS is a predict solution and has a great potential in India and overseas market.
The Internet guru & e-Security Consultant says, "Finally, the world has started taking the e-security seriously along with physical security. in the current scenario, many negative minds use this Wi-Fi technology for terrorist activities.
A technology like Micro Wi-Fi will create a boom in the market & help to curb such crimes. It allows the administrator to monitor the activity of the user and provide information about Wi-Fi access through the authorized web account. Micro WSS automatically detects the change of security settings and warns the Wi-Fi user and send the details on to the Server level Secured Web Account of the user.
Micro WSS also maintains the track of user activities in a computer with a facility of sending regular updates like individual file and the time of access and changes made to each file to authorized individuals.

Indian economy to sustain current storm: FM

2008-10-13T20:15:00.002+05:30

Terming the present scenario being marked with uncertainty, there are some facts that cannot be and ought not to be ignored, said the Union Finance Minister, P. Chidambaram. The Indian economy continues to grow at a satisfactory rate, and as per projections made by the IMF, India is expected to post a GDP growth of 7.9% during the current fiscal year, despite the impact of the global liquidity crunch, Chidambaram added citing the recent observations of IMF's Economic Counselor and Director (Research Department) Oliver Blanchard.
The FM said that though the stock market indices are important indicators, they are not the only indicators of the health of the Indian economy. The ratio of investment to GDP remains high at over 35% at the end of the first quarter of 2008-09. The monsoon has been normal; the Kharif crop (especially rice and cotton) has been good; farmers are sowing their fields; and the prospects for the Rabi crop are bright. Factories continue to produce goods and the services sector is growing at a brisk rate.
At the same time crude oil and commodity prices have declined sharply, which is likely to have a beneficial effect on inflation.
The root cause of the present uncertainty is liquidity and not any dramatic change in the fundamentals of the economy. Nevertheless, liquidity was found to be inadequate and, consequently, lenders were unwilling to take risks. These problems can be overcome if adequate liquidity is infused into the system.
Time and demand deposits with banks grew by 18.8% YoY and by 7.2% during April 01, 2008 to September 26, 2008. Though some lenders and investors faced redemption pressures leading to a sale of assets, especially stocks, the Government, RBI and SEBI closely watching the situation and the country will respond swiftly according to the needs of the situation, the Finance Minister added.
Our Calling upon the depositors to banish fear, the Finance Minister assured that their deposits in banks are safe. The banks are ready and willing to provide credit, and suitable advisories are being issued to the banks, he added.
Before you sell, you must remember that for every seller there is a buyer. You must ask yourself why the buyer is buying in these times of perceived uncertainty and, therefore, ask yourself the further question whether there is a need to act in haste or in panic. In my view, there is no reason at all to act in haste or to give room for panic, Chidambaram said.
If all the players in the economy remain confident and take informed decisions, I have no doubt that the Indian economy will weather the current storm and emerge stronger, the Finance Minister added.

EDUCOMP A LEADER --

2008-10-13T19:47:00.001+05:30

Educomp gets (3) three licenses for Millennium Learning System
EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS LTD. has announced that its Millennium Learning System, including its comprehensive school management services has been licensed by DPS Patna, DPS Pune and DPS Ludhiana.
Educomp's school management services will be used by these schools to upgrade the quality of services and improve learning outcomes.
The Millennium Learning System is a structured school management system, which includes Educomp's own range of books, professional development for teachers, Smart_Class system, a comprehensive library of lesson plans and consultancy for and active management of the school quality. With this the number of schools in Educomp's K12 portfolio goes up to 11.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT >>>>>

2008-10-13T17:48:00.014+05:30

Should investors wait for the mind-numbing madness in the stock market to pass, or just rush for the fire exit? Shakti Shankar Patra takes a look at technical charts to seek an answer to a question, which is becoming more tough with each passing day
IN THE unforgiving, yet fascinating world of equities, Warren Buffet is the epitome of success. From high-flying fund managers to Ivy league management students, from the Ferrari-driving Wall Street broker to the pan-chewing punter on Dalal Street, most will vouch that in the world of investments, their idol is none other than the Oracle of Omaha.
More reams of paper must have been dedicated to his abilities and wisdom than probably all other successful investors put together.
Even his random statements have become a part of financial folklore and investors blindly pick up stocks which he buys, the sole reason and justification being, 'Warren Buffet is buying it.'
Although questioning the investment acumen of the world's most successful investor will be crazy, there definitely seems to be a case for scrutinising some of his most glorified statements ' particularly in times such as these, where forget stocks, entire indices are collapsing 10% a day.
In 1988, in a letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Mr Buffet wrote, 'Our favourite holding period is forever.'
Not even trying to analyse the context in which the statement was made, the clichÃ©-hungry financial media in general and investment advisors in particular lapped up the statement, with both hands.
What they actually did was further strengthen two of the biggest misconceptions prevalent in the world of equities ' a simple 'buy and hold' strategy will give great returns in the long run and trying to time the market is a futile exercise.
In reality, nothing can be further from the truth. Firstly, there have been numerous decade-long spells, where equities have given negative returns.
For example, if you had bought Nasdaq stocks about a decade ago, you would now be sitting with very hefty losses, notwithstanding whether
those stocks were blue-chips like Microsoft or Yahoo or some, now extinct, dot-com hotties, and that too, despite the fact that you held on to them for a full decade!
The Nasdaq bubble was not a one-off thing. It happened during the Great Depression, with Japanese stocks in the 1990s and closer home, even with a large number of Sensex constituents of the 1990s, who are today languishing way off the highs seen during their heydays.
Remember Mukand Iron? In fact, between 1992 and '03, the Sensex persistently gave negative returns.
And if you thought this happens only when an investor is caught in a bubble, there are numerous examples to the contrary, when investors have lost money even though they have managed to enter at absolute lows. Their only fault is that they did not sell out, when prices went up, but decided to hold on forever.
For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average started rallying after hitting a multi-year low around 530 in 1962.
Over the next decade, it went on to hit multiple highs around 1,000 in 1966, 1968 and 1972, but then crashed all the way back to the 500s in 1974.
So, an investor who had managed to get in even at the absolute bottom in 1962, would have actually lost money after 12 years, if he had just held on instead of booking profits, when they were there.
The story was the same during the Great Depression, when the Dow rose six-fold from just 64 in 1921 to about 380 in 1929. But then the big crack emerged and by the time it found its bottom in 1932 ' at around 41 ' it had given up all the gains of the eight-year bull run and some more.
Needless to say, this is happening all over again as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has given up all the gains of the five-year bull run that started in '03.
In fact, investing can be compared to growing a mango tree. You have to pluck the mangoes when they are there, instead of just letting them rot.
A few decades before Buffet advocated investing for the long run, an equally brilliant, if not better, John Maynard Keynes had famously said, 'In the long run, we are all dead.'
And taking the risk of inviting the ire of all Buffet fans, Keynes makes more sense than Buffet.
As for the second big misconception, it's a fact that very few people can time the market, but then, making money in the market is a very difficult job and every Tom, Dick, Harry and Ram doesn't succeed in it.
Of course, it's next to impossible to catch the absolute top and the bottom, but even if you can catch the trend and skim a reasonable amount between the top and the bottom, you have achieved your objective. Isn't it'
At the same time, Buffet once said, 'I realised technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer.' Although it's difficult to believe that he really meant what he said, if your faith in 'buy and hold' is waning and you are ready to time the market, let's take a look at the following technical charts to understand what exactly they're trying to tell us'
FABULOUS FIBONACCIS

This Nifty chart was being carried with the Derivatives Diary column of ET Investor's Guide for the past few weeks. As written last week, the pillar (the trendline from the lows made on May 17, '04, when the Nifty had crashed because of the NDA's rout in the general elections) on which the five-year bull run was built was busted in the first week of October '08. What followed next was worse than the worst nightmare of an equity investor. In order to find the support levels from hereon, let's take the help of Fiobonacci numbers, which are giving some mind-blowing conclusions.
If we deduct the top of 6357.10 made on January 8, '08 from the bottom of 1292.20 made on the May 17, '04, we get 5064.9. A 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the entire bull move gives us about 4420. This was roughly the level that came to our rescue, when intermediate bottoms were made on January 22 and March 18. This support held on for a while, but then gave way and the Nifty fell like a stone to form the next intermediate bottom on July 16 at the 50% retracement of the entire bull move, which roughly gives us levels of 3820. This coincided with the trendline and if the bull run was to survive, this bottom needed to hold on.
However, once that was gone, the next support is the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the entire bull move, which gives us a figure of 3227. While this was breached on Friday, it is still holding up on a closing basis. So, if this is not broken today, expect a sharp bounce till 3800, which will then decide if we have just had a massive bull market correction, or the bull run has indeed become history and we go on to test the June '06 lows of about 2600.
MSCI WORLD EQUITY INDEX

From the lows of 423.14 made in September 1990, the Morgan Stanley Capital International World Equity Index, which includes stocks of 23 developed markets, rallied all the way to 1448.76 by March '00. Over the next two years, it gave up roughly 70% of its gains to hit lows of 696.76 in October '02. From these levels, it rallied all the way to hit a life-time high of 1686.32 (amazingly, this rally was also close to a similar 1,000 points). At close last Thursday, it had shed slightly more than 70% of all its gains since '02. Expect a long and painful consolidation between the horizontal lines. However, in the unlikely scenario of the bottom line breaching, expect nothing less than a repeat of the Great Depression and a New World Order.
MSCI EMERGING MARKET INDEX
The Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Equity Index, which includes stocks of 26 developing markets including India, clearly exemplifies why these markets are referred to as 'emerging'. As is evident, the index has basically not been going anywhere, and the sharp upmove since '04 seems nothing, but an aberration. With the world entering a de-leveraged, risk-averse phase, expect some more correction and then a resumption of the sideway move between the two horizontal lines. There is absolutely no way that global liquidity will now hit these emerging shores anytime soon in search of higher returns.
DOLLAR/YEN

LIQUIDITY IS known as the mother's milk of all asset prices. The biggest source of all global liquidity is the cheap yen coming out of Japan (interest rates were zero in '01 and are at 0.5 now). Investors borrow yen at dirt-cheap rates in Japan, convert that into US dollars and buy assets across the world ' popularly called the yen carry trade. A depreciation in the yen means the carry trade is flourishing and vice-versa suggests risk-aversion is rising and the yen is rushing back to Japan. As is reflected in the dollar-yen chart, the yen is consistently making lower tops over the past decade (though it's not as ferocious as in the '90s), with a support around 99-100 (horizontal line). Currently, it's again testing this support, a breach of which will dry up the taps of global financial markets. But one can expect the downward sloping line to be tested again, followed by a decisive break below the support around 100.
NIFTY P/E

IN TERMS of P/E, the Nifty has peaked out ' both during the tech bubble of ''00 and the recent one in January '08 ' at surgically identical levels. At the same time, the trendline from the lows of May '04, which was lending it tremendous support for the past four years, is now busted. An upward sloping P/E trendline meant that in terms of valuations, the Nifty was constantly getting re-rated.
However, those happy days seem to have become history and along with most emerging markets, India is on the path of getting de-rated. This chart also suggests that some kind of bounce is just around the corner and it should ideally go and test resistance at the trendline, which being the previous support, is bound to offer strong resistance. The failure of this attempt will mean that the Nifty would have to finally come back to its long term P/E support of around 10-12.
Nifty Dividend Yield
NIFTY'S DIVIDEND yield chart is nothing, but an absolute mirror image of its price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple chart. As is evident, the downward trend is now reversed and it's ready to test resistance at the upper horizontal line. Expect a fall to the lower horizontal line, which has been a key support quite often. However, the upward movement should resume after this and the Nifty''s dividend yield should not peak out before 2.5-3. The implication of this is that earnings and dividend payout ratios should keep rising and the Nifty should fall a bit more for it to become a compelling buy, even for risk-averse investors.
NIFTY DAILIES (Since Oct 1, 2007)

THIS NIFTY daily chart since October '07 hardly needs any explanation. If ever a chart spoke for itself, this is it. As is evident, the Nifty is in a beautiful downtrend, with clearly demarcated upper and lower limits. These limits were violated for a very short time during the early January greed and the January 22 fear. Since we are back at the lower end of this channel, expect a bounce-back till the upper trend line. However, if the lower line gives way, which will also oincide with the support at 3227 getting breached (please refer to the chart on Page One), the pain will only increase.
THE CLASSICAL HEAD & SHOULDERS

THE CLASSICAL Head & Shoulders pattern has returned to haunt doubters of technical analysis. After making an intermediate bottom on July 16, the Nifty made a classical H&S pattern. Once the neckline was broken on Sept 15, there was no way the Nifty could have not crashed. It made a final attempt to recover, but found the neckline had turned into a stonewall. So, when the neckline was broken again on Sept 22, there was nothing but the apocalypse. If one ignores this pattern, a longer H&S is visible, with the left shoulder around mid-July and the right shoulder around mid-Sept. The breach of this opened up the gates of hell. One can expect a bounce till the lower neckline, which must have already become a stonewall.
NIFTY DAILIES (Since March ''07)

IN ABOUT 25 trading sessions, a set-up consisting of a bullish cross-over of the 20 day moving average (DMA) over the 50 DMA, followed by a bearish crossover of the same 20 DMA below the 50 DMA, was complete in May-June.
Once this was done, the Nifty dropped like a stone and lost about 30% between its May 2 top and the July 18 bottom.
As is evident, the whole process has been repeated once again (this entire set-up was published in the markets section of The Economic Times on September 18 and October 7) and the
Nifty has already lost a similar 30% in double-quick time. So, is there any respite on the anvil?

shakti.patra@timesgroup(dot)com

Very interesting Informations to read ^ ^

2008-10-10T19:11:00.005+05:30

Its a good move to reassure the public about the fundamental strength of Economy by the Ministry.I would like to highlight some points here.1. India got highest FII investment in 2007, to the tune of 70000/- crore. Now the total withdrawal by FIIs as of yesterday is only 39000 cr.The sensex on Jan 2007 was at 13500 and the 70000cr inflow made it reach at 20000mark. Now only half of that investment have gone out and how come sensex came below 13500? lets look at some more factors.2.Sensex came down from 20000 mark to 17k level based on the Pnote ban and the same is reversed now.2.Sensex came from 17/16k to 13 because of high oil price and high inflation..oil has already come down and inflation is also easing.3.If you compare the sales figures of sensex companies over the last six months , it shows a positive uptrend amidst high inflation.4.Indias GDP growth rate of above 7.5% is one among the best when we compare it with less than 4% growth in Developed economies.5.With a 495bn$ investment plan of 11th five year plan coupled with lower rupee rate and relaxed investment norms we can expect positive news in SENSEX soon.Believe in Fundamentals and not the negative fundas.No wonder why more than half of fortune 500 companies have already set up their base in India.The growth Story is not a mere story..Its a fact
Posting this info from another blog site

Navi Mumbai SEZ to speed up-----------------------------------Navi Mumbai SEZ (NMSEZ), an SPV formed by Maharashtra state’s infrastructure arm, City and Industrial Development Corporation (Cidco), RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani and Jai Corp, controlled by Anand Jain, hopes to put the project on fast track by the end of this year.Commercial activities are likely to begin on at least 150 hectares of this SEZ in about a year. However, an adjacent SEZ, known as the Maha Mumbai SEZ (MSEZ), would take longer to fructify.“Things are moving pretty fast as far as NMSEZ is concerned. But there appears to be a deliberate pause in movement over Maha Mumbai SEZ. Land acquisition and rehabilitation issues seem to have forced the promoters to go slow on Maha Mumbai project in this phase of political uncertainty,” a senior Cidco official.Entrepreneur Nikhil Gandhi also has a stake in NMSEZ.Mr Ambani and Mr Jain are developing a mega SEZ near Mumbai. The project acquired the ‘controversial’ tag due to protest over land acquisition in parts of the proposed site. The project consists of two SEZs — NMSEZ and Maha Mumbai SEZ. But the land acquisition problems are limited to the latter. “We expect to go to the commerce ministry’s board of approvals (BoA) for MSEZ only by the first quarter of 2009. It could be for around 1,000 hectares in the first instance,” disclosed a company official promoting the SEZ. The combined size of the two SEZs could come to over 7,000 hectares if the promoters are successful in their land acquisition attempt.According to Cidco, which holds a 26% stake in the project, two major factors may have led to shift its attention to NMSEZ. First, RIL feels it can ill-afford to court more controversies over Maha Mumbai SEZ at a time when mid-term polls are being speculated. Second, the promoters need to show some concrete progress on NMSEZ. “Since the state is involved through Cidco, there are no serious land issues. The rehabilitation part is being taken care of by Cidco and there has not been a serious hurdle so far. Also, Cidco genuinely wants the project to happen. All these factors, considered with the sense of urgency driving the promoters now, are working in favour of NMSEZ,” said another Cidco official.NMSEZ is being developed over 2,140 hectares comprising three different nodes — Dronagiri (1,250 hectares), Kalamboli (350 hectares), Ulwe airport node (460 hectares) and Ulwe waterfront (80 hectares). The central government has also notified Dronagiri and Ulwe waterfront nodes, and Cidco has actually transferred about 1,680 hectares to NMSEZ. “Cidco’s main task is to make land available and facilitate other clearances. As per the SEZ Act of 2005, the development commissioner has to carry out regular inspections at the site to monitor if deadlines are being met or not. It was only after a couple of inspections at the site that the land got notified,” said a Cidco source.The remaining land is also in the last stage of being notified. The Ulwe airport node and Kalamboli have formal approval from the government, a stage prior to notification. With a major portion of the land getting notified and transferred, deadlines have been set for NMSEZ. By 2010, it has to develop 450 hectares. Commercial production should start on at least 150 hectares of this land in another 12 months from May 2008. In all, NMSEZ has to complete infrastructure development on all of 2,140 hectares in six years. As per the agreement, Cidco and the private partner have appointed an independent engineer to monitor the progress of infrastructure development. There has been visible progress here in the past couple of months, Cidco officials said. Levelling of land, the primary activity towards creation of infrastructure, has been completed in Ulwe and about 50% of the job is over in Dronagiri and Kalamboli, too.The dilemma facing the promoters, Cidco officials explained, pertained to the type of users which would set up shop at the SEZ. “As of now, Dronagiri has been named a multi-product SEZ while Kalamboli and Ulwe are supposed to house IT/ITeS , financial services, gems and jewellery. But the type of units has not been finalised yet,” said a source.NMSEZ is learnt to be reviewing a masterplan that Cidco had got done from McCliter, a Chicago-based consulting firm, and is getting a new masterplan prepared by JTC, sources said. “The new plan is being worked out in the context of land contiguity issues raised by the board of approvals on SEZ. The entire stretch of land has to look contiguous, and the new masterplan should envisage construction of some railway over bridges, flyovers and other infrastructure facilities, which do not leave any scope for revenue pilferage, as feared by the BoA,” said an official, requesting anonymity. Last year, when the BoA had delayed granting formal approval to NMSEZ, it had cited lack of land contiguity. Later, Cidco convinced the BoA that the new masterplan being worked out by the strategic private partner for NMSEZ would address the land contiguity issue. The problem was that land was in possession of Cidco from as early as early 2000. Cidco had carried out developmental activities at some places, but not all locations got developed. So, the land did not look contiguous when the NMSEZ proposal came up before the BoA,” said the Cidco official. The project will source its power from a 2,000-MW power plant being developed by Jai Corp. Mr Ambani and Jai Corp are developing a giant port at Rewas which is located in the region.NMSEZ is being developed over 2,140 hectares comprising Dronagiri, Kalamboli, the Ulwe airport node and Ulwe waterfront Cidco’s main task is to make land available and facilitate clearances By 2010, NMSEZ has to develop 450 hectares Commercial production may start on 150 hectares from May 2008

source : harborhead

BE AWARE !!!!

2008-10-06T19:10:00.003+05:30

Immediate Support for Nifty is around 3630-3650.

Day traders are cautioned for not to trade for atleast 15-Days otherwise No one can help....

Just wait and watch the individual Stocks than Sensex...

Stay away from the market from time being...

YET MORE BLOOD BATH IS EXPECTED..

2008-10-06T19:04:00.002+05:30

HALF OF THE SHARES FALLS BELOW THEIR BOOK VALUE :
With the markets seeing consistent selling by overseas investors and the benchmark indices taking a tumble, many stocks have retreated, and are now quoting below their book value. A study by FE indicates that as many as 49% stocks from the 2,699 listed companies traded below their book value at the end of September, sharply down from the 22% on January 8, this year.
And this is not just about a large sample size, including many trashy companies and penny stocks. Around 7% companies on the BSE 500 were quoting below their book value in January and now the share has swollen to 20%. Clearly, the pounding has been severe as the Sensex has fallen by 38.39% (-8,012.90 points) to 12,860.43 on September 30, from the peak of 20,873.33 on January 8,2008.
Out of 2,699 quoted companies, 1,319(49%) quoted below of their book value as on Sep 30. But on January 8, the number was 584 (22%).
Among the 1,319 companies quoting below their book value as on Sept 30, a few are big companies. Take for example, Arvind Ltd, which was quoting at around Rs 24.30 with its book value pegged at around Rs 63.55. Even the leading tyre manufacturer of the RP Goenka group, CEAT was quoted at around Rs 60.10, while its book value was around Rs 145.97. Then, there are others like Century Enka (Rs 94.15/BV Rs 225.14) and Escorts (Rs 59.10/BV Rs 80.75).
Usually, the price-to-book value ratio very quickly indicates the valuation attractiveness of a company. It is, roughly speaking, the price you would pay for the company’s assets. Hence, lower the price-to-book value, the more attractive the investment opportunity becomes. However, the price-to-book value should not be looked at in isolation, the quality of the assets and profitability, especially the return on equity, should also be considered.
For example, the first quarter profit of Alok Industries, which saw a considerable decline in the price-to-book value, decreased by 48.5% to Rs 28.35 crore during April-June 2008 from the level of Rs 55.01 crore a year ago. Similar, is the case with Bajaj Auto Finance.
However, the average BSE 500 return on equity is estimated to be around 15%, and this compares well with other global peers. Therefore, with so many companies quoting below their book value, does investment in Indian companies become an attractive proposition for overseas investors? According to a Citigroup research report on-
Asian markets, “We know that markets are a little below average on P/BV at 1.7x. From here we are close to a 50/50 probability of making money.”
The reasoning is that Asian markets are slightly below average but by only a very small margin. “If the last 30 years are any guide, the risk reward of buying the Asian markets at this stage is 51% upside probability vs. 49% downside probability. So, not exactly attractive,” the report concludes....

GOOD NEWS FOR JPT SECURITIES !!!

2008-10-04T18:44:00.001+05:30

The composition of new board makes it clear that JPT is going to be converted into SKIL. Mr. Nikhil Gandhi needs no introduction. Here is the profile of some of the new Board members.
Mr. Sanjivi Sundar, aged 69 years, is the Non-Executive and Independent Chairman of our
Company. He holds a Masters Degree in Economics as well as Law from Madras University. Mr.
Sundar joined the Indian Administrative Service in 1963 and has over 34 years of experience. Mr.
Sundar is a distinguished fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). He has vast
experience in the fields of finance, surface transport, tourism, and economic affairs. He has served
as Secretary, Ministry of Surface Transport as well as Secretary Department of Tourism and
Secretary, Board of Industrial and Financial Reconstruction. His area of expertise in the fields of
infrastructure regulation, urban transport, project formulations, international contract negotiations,
investment promotion, financing arrangements, infrastructure development and financing and
regulatory reform. He has been actively involved in formulating sustainable solutions in the
infrastructure sector, even after his retirement. Mr. Sundar has been providing his valuable
experience in formulating business strategies of our Company.

Mr. N. Ravichandran is a CA and Law graduate who has been actively involved with the SKIL Group since its inception. He ranks among the seniormost members of the Group and has played a key role in the overall development of the Group’s operations. With wide experience in infrastructure projects, he has played a key and strategic role in the infrastructure industry with a keen focus towards India’s economic development. As Deputy Chairman of the SKIL Group, Mr. Ravichandran is responsible for overseeing the various projects of the Group. He also heads the Project Finance Division of the Group and has successfully led the financial closure of all projects of the Group
and Mr J P Rai is the CEO of Skil Group.
Dont get distracted by some perverted messages.
Have faith in UR convictions.
I am reproducing a part of a message on KLG, that I liked most.
`One needs to be slow to form convictions, but once formed they must be defended against the heaviest odds`-Mahatma Gandhi.
Rome is not built in a day. Have patience to reap the rewards.

JPT Securities Ltd has informed BSE that consequent to the takeover (as per the norms of SEBI) there has been a change in the constitutions of the Board of Directors of the Company. The following Changes have been made in the Board Meeting held on October 03, 2008:

Appointments:

Mr. Sanjivi Sunder - Director
Mr. Nikhil Gandhi - Director
Mr. N Ravichandran - Director
Mr. J Alexander - Director
Mr. J P Rai - Director
Mr. B S Bhalerao - Director

Resignation:

Mr. S K Jain - Director
Mr. J K Bareja - Director
Mr. Sundhanshu Totla - Director...
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US SENATE CLEARS 700B$ BAILOUT !

2008-10-02T11:16:00.004+05:30

The US Senate on Wednesday approved a revised $700-billion financial bailout plan that would authorise the largest financial intervention by the country's government since the Great Depression.

The bailout plan was passed by a vote of 69-23. The Bush Administration and key lawmakers warned earlier that economic crisis would become a full-fledged disaster if Congress rejects the rescue plan.

Under the new bill, the federal government will be authorised to purchase the assets from banks and other financial institutions, which is expected to help free them to resume lending to businesses and consumers.

The new version approved by the Senate will raise federal deposit insurance limits to $250,000 from $100,000 per account, as suggested by the two White House hopefuls a day ago.

"This is what we need to do right now, to prevent the possibility of a crisis turning into a catastrophe," said Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama. "Let's do what's right for the country at this time, because the time to act is now."

His Republican rival John McCain also urged the colleagues in the Senate to approve the plan. "If we fail to act, the gears of our economy will grind to a halt," he said.

President George W. Bush on Wednesday morning asked the Congress to take the revised bailout plan "very seriously" and approve it quickly.

"The Senate's going to take this bill up tonight, I'm hopeful they will pass it, and then the House will have a chance to vote on it on Friday morning," Bush told reporters at the end of meeting with General David McKiernan, the top US military commander in Afghanistan.

"It's very important for members to take this bill very seriously," said the president, noting the legislation is needed "to stabilise the situation, so it doesn't get worse."

His remarks came two days after the US House of Representatives voted narrowly to reject the $700-billion financial rescue bill that the Bush administration and leading members of Congress had agreed was necessary.

"The bill is different. It has been improved and I am confident it will pass," Bush said.

What these experts say ............ ?

2008-09-29T19:14:00.003+05:30

Rajat Bose of rajatkbose.com said, "After such a large fall during the day when the Nifty futures was bouncing back from 3,840, I tried a contrarian long position which was with a very minimal exposure. But even that had to be stopped out."

At the moment it is likely to test that 3,799 to about 3,790 support area quite soon, he added. "Most probably during today’s trading session, it might get tested and can be negative because that level has given support twice and now it would not have as much buying interest as it had in the past. So I expect the major support area for the bull market from 3,640 to about 3,603. This range is likely to be tested shortly. So I will not advocate any buying. This is an across the board sort of a fall. So one should not try any contrarian position now like the earlier attempt."

Meanwhile, E Mathew of Mathew Easow Fiscal Services feels that the market is close to the important support zone of 3,800. And that would be a region for people who are short to cover somewhere around 3,800, he added. But for intra-day it may even go to as low as 3,780, which is an important retracement point, he said.

He feels that 3,780-3,800 is a strong support zone. "So for shorting now at 3,874, virtually one is now playing for the next 70-100 points and the stop loss would be around 3,950 to 4,000. It would not be that profitable a trade. But yes, individual stocks certainly are showing further weakness and one has to be a little more stock specific here," he said.

Ambareesh Baliga, Karvy Stock Broking believes that the sentiment has been very badly affected. Currently, the FIIs want to get out of the market. "A market where the participation across the board is so low that the cost has actually moved up quite high because of which even a small amount of selling is breaking prices for most of the stocks. People are tired of looking at the losses. So, they are clearly turning away from the market."

Baliga feels that currently people do not want to take fresh positions because the mood has changed a lot in the past couple of months. "Post January till possibly around April-May, people are looking at the benchmark of January highs and feel that they would get 30-40%. So possibly that is the reason one should be buying." But month after month the markets have seen new lows being touched. So, at this point in time, people have actually given up on the market, he said.

Baliga does not advice people to go short because one does not know where exactly it can turn around. "However, a turnaround from these levels can possibly give a 10-15% spike, although the way it has fallen it will not mean much," he said.

At this point Baliga suggests that one should stay out of the market, this is not a time to invest, neither to trade. "Let the market touch the low point and then possibly once it recovers from there, that could be the time to again re-enter the market."

source : moneycontrol(dot)com

WHAT IS NEXT ??

2008-09-28T10:01:00.006+05:30

We have created a full-scale investment banking, securities trading and private equity business, a clear vote of confidence in the economic and social future of India—a future in which we at Lehman Brothers fully intend to play a large and growing part. Tarun Jotwani, Chairman & CEO, Lehman Brothers, India, in the foreword of the investment bank’s release of an India report titled India: Everything to Play For, last October.

Those were good times for Jotwani and his India team. The 158-year-old Lehman Brothers was preparing to celebrate its first anniversary since opening office in the upscale Ceejay House in central Mumbai. “Our fundamental vision is that India is at an early stage of a structural growth story… we want to be a part of this process. We do not want to create a cottage industry,” a full-of-beans Jotwani told Business Today in late-October. The India CEO had reason to be upbeat: Lehman, after all, was the bank that had just played advisor to the $98.2-billion mega-takeover of Dutch bank ABN AMRO by Royal Bank of Scotland.

Last fortnight, days after announcing a $3.9-billion net loss for the third quarter, ending August 30. Lehman itself was up for grabs. However, the bank, which had negative net revenues of $2.93 billion in the third quarter, was clearly not attractive enough to find a suitor, with Barclays and Bank of America walking away from the negotiating table. The sucker punch came when Lehman Brothers Holdings filed for bankruptcy protection. Even as it prepared to begin looking for ways to pay back creditors, bond holders and shareholders, Lehman said that it would explore the sale of its broking and investment management units, amongst other measures. As Jotwani’s India blueprint went up in smoke (an e-mail sent to Jotwani remained unanswered), Bank of America, in the meanwhile, saw more value in another Wall Street bank, Merrill Lynch. It bought Merrill for $50 billion, in the process throwing a lifeline to the John Thain-chaired bank’s investors and employees.

As BT went to press, another financial giant, American International Group (AIG), was pulling out all the stops to stay alive, with reports indicating that the sale of its aircraftleasing arm was just one last-ditch attempt to come back from the brink. AIG had reportedly sought a $40-billion bail-out from the US Fed. Reports indicate that there are other banks and mortgage houses in the US on the verge of going under. After Bear Stearns (which was snapped up at a fire-sale price by JPMorgan Chase) and mortgage-finance twins Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (which were bailed out by the US Fed), Lehman becomes the latest—and the biggest—casualty of the oneyear-old subprime crisis, in what’s easily the worst period in the American financial system since the Great Depression.

The guessing game under way in the West is: “Who’s next?” Back home, however, the uncertainty is being felt not just amongst the investment banking community, but also on Dalal Street. Lehman and its associates were significant foreign institutional investors in India in stocks like Orbit Corp, Spice Mobiles and Emkay Global Financial Services; marketmen clearly fear that the downbeat mood on Wall Street will spread across global markets, including India. On the day the news of Lehman going bust and Merrill selling out hit the headlines, the benchmark Sensex fell by 3.35 per cent. On the same day, a canny domestic banker thought it opportune to announce that he had poached the cream of Merrill Lynch’s Indian institutional equities team.

Ashok Wadhwa’s Ambit Holdings succeeded in roping in Andrew Holland, Managing Director of Proprietary Trading at DSP Merrill Lynch, as CEO-Institutional Equities & Equity Proprietary Trading for its broking operations, Ambit Capital. Two other members of the proprietary team, Vaibhav Sanghvi and Piyush Shah, also jumped on board Ambit. “The current situation gives domestic firms like us an opportunity to scale up and diversify by recruiting high quality talent,” says Wadhwa, CEO& MD of Ambit Corporate Finance. His views are echoed by Lazard India Founder and Chairman Udayan Bose: “The situation is different from the late nineties when only US-based banks were present in India. Today, there are banks from other countries that are not affected by the crisis.” Around that time a number of banks, including Lehman, had upped and left the country. But Lehman, which left in 1999, returned in 2005.

A section of Indian marketmen believes that with Lehman going under and Merrill finding a buyer, some of the uncertainty in the market has been dealt with. “For Indian markets, a lot of anxiety is now over. For instance, markets were going down when crude oil prices were on an upswing. Now crude prices are going down. Now, we need to see how the global issue of demand destruction pans out,” says Vallabh Bhansali, Chairman, Enam Financial Consultants. “It’s a low point for the brokerage industry as two famous names are going out of business,” he adds. The fear, however, is that this may not quite be the lowest point, yet.

—K. R. Balasubramanyam

IMPORTANT INFORMATION :

2008-09-23T21:23:00.000+05:30

SUN OUTAGE 
 Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) has informed us that there would be  

SUN OUTAGE from September 24, 2008 to October 08, 2008 between 11:25 hrs to   12:05 hours, due to which trading members may face loss of connectivity during  this period.   Accordingly, the market timings of the Exchange are being modified   as follows for all markets i.e. Normal / RDM/ Limited Physical Market:   Market Open :

09:55 hours 
Market will remain close :

11:25 hours to 12:05 hours 
Pre-open period (only for Normal Market ) :

12:05 hours to 12:10 hours 
Market re-open :

12:10 hours 
Market close :
16:15 hours 
Closing Session start :

16:35 hours 
Closing Session end :

16:45 hours 
Auction Market Open :

13:00 hours     During pre-open phase in the Normal Market, members  will not be permitted to place any new orders or modify existing orders, but however, will be allowed to cancel any of the existing orders. Pre-open phase  will not be available for RDM/ Limited Physical Market segments.   The change in market timings shall be effective from September 24, 2008 to October 08, 2008.

EVEREST KANTO - A VALUE PICK FOR 2008-09 ^^

2008-09-22T19:34:00.000+05:30

Riding The Boom

Beta: 0.19

Institutional Holding: 16.7%
Dividend Yield: 0.4%
P/E: 24.8
M-Cap: Rs 2,939.4 cr
CMP: Rs 290.60

Everest Kanto Cylinders will be a key beneficiary of the increasing popularity of CNG as a transport fuel both in India and abroad. Long-term investors can consider the stock

EVEREST KANTO Cylinders (EKC) is India?s largest producer of high-pressure seamless cylinders for industrial and automotive applications. With increasing usage of compressed natural gas (CNG) globally as a transport fuel, the demand for seamless cylinders is rising rapidly. Considering EKC?s leading position in the industry and aggressive expansion plans, it is set to emerge as a key beneficiary of this boom. Long-term investors can consider this stock.

BUSINESS: EKC has five manufacturing facilities located across India, Dubai and China, with a total installed capacity of 0.8 million cylinders per annum (cpa). The company caters to the demand for high-pressure cylinders and CNG cascades in India, as well as Iran, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia, Egypt and CIS countries.

EKC?s Chinese unit commissioned production at its 2,00,000-cpa plant in March ?08. The company, which is expected to achieve 100% capacity utilisation by the year end, is likely to get the regulatory approval to sell its products in China by the end of October. In April ?08, EKC acquired US-based CP Industries for $66 million, which is a world leader in high-pressure jumbo cylinders for storing and transporting industrial gases. This acquisition supplemented EKC?s product portfolio, while providing it the necessary know-how to produce similar cylinders for the Indian market.

GROWTH DRIVERS: EKC is setting up a 2,00,000-cpa facility at Gandhidham in Gujarat to manufacture industrial cylinders from billets, as well as another plant to manufacture large-sized jumbo cylinders. Both these projects are expected to be commissioned by December ?08. The company is also setting up a 3,00,000-cpa plant in the Kandla SEZ in Gujarat, which will be commissioned by June ?09. EKC plans to increase its capacity in China five-fold to 1 million cpa in three years, taking its total cylinder capacity (industrial and CNG) to 2.3 million cpa by FY12 from 0.8 million cpa. Historically, the lack of infrastructure for storing, transporting and dispensing CNG has come in the way of its becoming a popular transport fuel. But the scene is changing rapidly, thanks to the spurt in crude oil prices. Globally, a number of countries are shifting to CNG as a transport fuel, which is cheaper and cleaner, compared to petrol and diesel. India, which has CNG available only in a few cities at present, has chalked out plans to launch city gas distribution (CGD) projects in over 230 cities.

Gail ? India?s largest transporter of natural gas ? now has a subsidiary to focus on its CGD business and has set up CNG stations along all major highways. At the same time, the availability of natural gas in India is set to double in the next three years. As more natural gas becomes available and CNG infrastructure improves across the country, the demand for CNG vehicles will also rise multi-fold, which, in turn, will boost demand for CNG cylinders. A similar scenario is unfolding across various other countries. As per the International Association of Natural Gas Vehicles, the number of natural gas vehicles (NGVs) globally has witnessed a CAGR of 30% in the past five years to reach 8.5 million vehicles at present, and is expected to see a CAGR of 20% till ?20 to 65 million vehicles.

FINANCIALS: EKC?s net profit has seen a CAGR of 90% over the past five years to reach Rs 104 crore in FY08. In the same period, its net sales have recorded a CAGR of 43%. The company?s operating margins have risen consistently over the past five years to touch 30% in the 12-month period ended June ?08. Since EKC has been in an expansion mode, its return on capital employed (RoCE) has halved in the past three years to 18.5%. Operating cash flows have stayed negative in the past two years due to an increase in inventory and debtors. Inventory was high as EKC stocked up on raw materials, expecting their prices to rise. High debtors on balance sheet result from high sales during March due to depreciation benefits available to buyers.

VALUATIONS: At CMP of Rs 290.6, the scrip is trading at 24.8 times EPS for trailing 12 months. Going forward, we expect the company to post a net profit of Rs 183 crore for FY09 on sales of Rs 872 crore. Thus, based on the estimated EPS for FY09 the P/E works out to 16.3.

Ramkrishna Kashelkar

ramkrishna.kashelkar@timesgroup.com

SHREE RENUKA SUGAR - SWEET STOCK TO INVEST !!

2008-09-22T19:27:00.000+05:30

Super Sweet Spot

Institutional Holding: 36.6%
Dividend Yield: 0.19%
P/E: 27.1
M-Cap: Rs 2,982.2 cr
CMP: Rs 108.05

Shree Renuka Sugars has outperformed its peers in revenue and profit growth. Its focus on non-sugar businesses will give it a further leg-up. The stock?s a good long-term bet

SHREE RENUKA Sugars (SRSL) is a South India-based integrated sugar producer, which is set to emerge as a key beneficiary of the upturn in the sugar industry. The company has twin benefits of being an integrated sugar player and having access to cheaper sugarcane. Aggressive expansion plans, an integrated business model and improving efficiencies make SRSL a good long-term bet for investors.

BUSINESS: Incorporated in 1995, SRSL is today India?s fifth-largest sugar company with a capacity of 29,000 tonnes of crushing per day (tcd) and is likely to end the year October ?07-September ?08 with sugar production of 6.7 lakh tonnes. It is also India?s largest ethanol producer, which is increasingly being blended with petrol. The company currently has six units in Karnataka and Maharashtra. Nearly 30% of its production capacity is leased, while the rest is owned.

SRSL is an integrated player with distillery capacity of 450 kilolitres per day (kl/day) and power generation capacity of 129 megawatts (mw). The company recently expanded its capacity in the ethanol and power businesses, which should help to increase its volumes and margins. It has also diversified into the sugar refining segment and is setting up two port-based refineries at Haldia and Mundra with capacities of 2,000 tonnes per day (tpd) each and one 2,000 tpd integrated refinery in Karnataka.

The company has also undertaken some acquisitions in the recent past. It acquired Ratnaprabha Sugars ? which has a 1,250-tcd sugar plant and a 30 kl/day distillery ? for about Rs 24 crore. It has also acquired 67% stake in KBK Engineering, which specialises in distillery construction.

GROWTH FACTORS: The uptrend in the sugar cycle is likely to benefit SRSL as the company derives most of its revenue from sale of sugar. Further, its location in South India gives it the advantage of lower sugarcane cost than its competitors in the northern states, which have to pay higher prices due to government regulations.

SRSL has embarked upon a major expansion plan with an investment plan of more than Rs 500 crore, to be completed in the next two years. This includes plans to increase the crushing capacity at two of its plants from the existing 10,000 tcd to 16,000 tcd by January ?09. Further, its new 2,000 tpd sugar refinery is coming up at Mundra SEZ at a cost of Rs 350 crore by March ?10. At the same time, the company will also augment its power generation capacity to 164 mw by October ?09.

To tap the ethanol market, SRSL has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL) to set up an integrated sugar plant with associated facilities for production of ethanol in Maharashtra. The company?s 450 kl/day new distillery project may come up in FY10. This proposed expansion through the joint venture (JV) will cater to the huge market for ethanol and HPCL?s requirement for 10% blending with petrol.

In the power business, the company will utilise only 45% of the total generated power for captive consumption, while the rest will be sold in the open market. Thus, the power business alone can generate revenues of Rs 100 crore annually. This is assuming 35% capacity utilisation corresponding to the crushing season and sale price of Rs 4/unit.

To fund these expansion plans, SRSL plans to raise funds by issuing 2 crore warrants to promoters at a conversion price of Rs 114 per share (to be convertible in 18 months from the date of issue). Additionally, SRSL is considering issuance of American depositary receipts (ADRs) or gross depositary receipts (GDRs) worth Rs 900 crore.

FINANCIALS: The company?s net sales have witnessed a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63% since ?04 to reach Rs 980 crore in the year ended September ?07, on a consolidated basis. Its profit has grown at a faster pace of 89% to touch Rs 83 crore in FY07. Further, it reported topline growth of 174% in the quarter ended June ?08 to Rs 701 crore, thanks to higher sugar trading. However, the company?s operating profit margins dipped by 980 basis points to 10% on the back of thin margins in the sugar trading business.

The reducing dependence on the sugar business has helped the company to outperform its peers in both revenue and profit growth. SRSL is increasingly focusing on distilleries and power generation.

VALUATIONS: The current boom in sugar prices is expected to improve margins for the company?s sugar business. At the same time, SRSL?s increasing focus on the non-sugar businesses such as power, ethanol and distilleries will act as a catalyst for its growth. Although the share of the non-sugar businesses is currently small, these segments are likely to

improve their contribution to the company?s topline and reduce the fluctuation in its revenues, arising due to sugar price fluctuation.

At the current market price of

Rs 108, the scrip trades at 26 times its profit for the past 12 months on a consolidated basis. We expect the company to close FY08 with a profit of Rs 116 crore on a consolidated basis, and post a profit of Rs 162 crore in FY09. SRSL?s current market price is around 17.2 times the estimated forward earnings for FY09.

Shikha Sharma

shikha.sharma1@timesgroup.com

SEZ meeting output ........

2008-09-22T18:12:00.000+05:30

PEN(RAIGAD): The sylvan-looking Pen town in Raigad district is famous for the Ganesh idols it produces. On September 21 though, this modest tehsil in the picteresque Konkan region will have another claim to fame for not so divine reasons. A little more than 30,000 villagers from 22 hamlets in the Pen tehsils will make known their choice for or against a special economic zone (SEZ) promoted by RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani and his close associate Anand Jain.

If a majority of these villagers say in writing that they don't want to be a part of this multi-product SEZ, the state government will have little choice other than striking off these 22 villages from the SEZ map and in the process heralding in a new trend, which could decelerate the progress of the SEZ bandwagon across the country. And if the majority tilts towards the SEZ, the public hearing could end up discrediting the lobby up against industrial projects across the country. So September 21 could turn out to be the very significant Sunday for the country.

The Mumbai SEZ

Anand Jain, is proposed to come up over 10000-hectares of land which cover 45 villages in Raigad district. Of this, 22 villages in Pen tehsil fall in the command area of the Hetawane dam and the public hearing has been ordered to let villagers have their if they want the SEZ or not. On the basis of written statements that will be filed by around 30,000 villagers, the Raigad collector will make a report to the state government. This report, along with a status report on the Hetawane dam to be submitted by the irrigation department, will help the government take a final call on inclusion or exclusion of these 22 villages. There, however, will not be any 'voting' on Sunday contrary to some media reports.

At the center of the great hullabaloo fairly early in his career in civil service, Raigad collector Nipun Vinayak, in his early thirties, says he does not feel any pressure of the unprecedented moment. "I don't anticipate any violence. But the district administration is fully prepared to conduct the public hearing in a peaceful manner tomorrow. It's not a referendum. It's only a public hearing of a novel kind wherein the government would get hear what the people concerned have to say," Mr Vinayak told ET at his sea-facing Alibaugh office. "We have advertised the proforma of written statement in local newspapers to create awareness. It has been designed in such a way that villagers will have the room to express their views in general as well as specific terms," Mr Vinayak said.

These 22 villages have 5925 villagers whose names figure on the 7/12 land ownership extracts as primary owners. But Mr Vinayak says the government has served notices to all 30,057 villagers who have their names on the 7/12 extracts. "If a family has five members and all of them figure on the 7/12 extracts, all of them will have a say in the process to make the hearing a broad exercise," Mr Vinayak said.

Irrespective of the government proforma, both pro and anti SEZ lobbies are busy circulating their own versions of the document that has to be filled up and submitted to the government. Whatever the text of this document, the villagers will have to sign it in the presence of government officials on Sunday.

Source : economuctimes.indiatimes

RIL AND NTPC CAN BE PICKED UP !!!

2008-09-22T08:22:00.001+05:30

ONE CAN PICK UP RIL @ CMP OF Rs.2055 WITH A STOP LOSS OF Rs.2000/- FOR A SHORT TERM TARGET OF Rs.2250/- AND 2375/- WITHIN A 2-3 WEEKS.

NTPC CAN BE PICKED UP @ CMP OF Rs.183/- WITH A STOP LOSS OF Rs.172/- AND FOR A TARGET OF Rs.225/- WITHIN 2-3 WEEKS.

SENSEX MAY BE REACHED TO 15580 - 15800 IN THE COMMING SESSIONS.....

SESAGOA - A REAL GEM .......

2008-09-17T18:06:00.000+05:30

One should start picking up SESAGOA shares @ CMP of Rs. 112/- in a small Qty. If sentiment continous for some days or months, this share may be available at attractive price of Rs. 95/- or 90/-. At this price, more number of Shares can be added and kept for atleast 1 to 1. 1/2 years time to achieve Target of Rs. 500/- per share.

HOLD ON .. KLG CAP & JPT SECURITIES.....

2008-09-17T17:48:00.000+05:30

JPT SECURITIES and KLG CAPITALS are under corerection - as both the shares have risen very sharply in a short span.

Being NIKHIL GANDHI's Companies we shall expect Large valued Projects and a great returns in the comming months i.e. 12-24 months. Investors have to keep 2-S in mind. i.e.(Shradhha (Viswash)and Saburi). These shares are Hens will give Golden Eggs over a period. Don't be panic. Wait and watch for LCs trend to over. Once, the LCs open and stabilise at that price may be near to Rs.250/- or Rs. 225/-, the further upward journey may begin for a short term Target of Rs. 500/- for JPT SEC and 900/- for KLG CAP - expected before Diwali... and Long Term Target of Rs.2000/- each.

Stay Invested to earn money....

ASM TECHNOLOGY A GOOD PICK FOR 12-MONTHS...

2008-09-17T17:42:00.000+05:30

ASM TECHNOLOGY (BSE-526433)is trading @ CMP of Rs.32.50 is a very good pick in view of appreciation of Dollar in the recent past and also in the comming 12-months with a target of 75/-.